For much of the last several decades, Lebanon has been wracked by instability and tangled up in the affairs of larger or more powerful neighbours. Its confessional political system, based on power sharing among its eighteen officially recognised ethno-religious groups, is arguably both the cause and the effect of recurrent strife, notably the 1975-1990 civil war. Today the elites who run the system are also implicated in ever-deepening state dysfunction and economic recession. Meanwhile, Lebanon is at risk of spillover from the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, the Syrian war and regional turmoil, due partly to the rise of Hizbollah, the Shiite Islamist movement opposed to Israel and allied with Iran and the Syrian regime, as a political force. The country hosts hundreds of thousands of Palestinian refugees as well as nearly 1.5 million Syrians. Pending changes that would allow resolution of the outside conflicts, Crisis Group works to keep Lebanon insulated from their flare-ups, to seek durable solutions for refugees and to encourage structural reform that might alleviate the country's internal problems.
The erosion of Lebanese political institutions, which has already disabled the presidency and the cabinet, now threatens hundreds of municipalities. Amid its crippling economic crisis, Lebanon can ill afford to lose one of the last vestiges of state functionality.
Hardship from economic crisis continued to bite, fuelling protests and disorder, while presidential vacuum persisted with no end in sight and tensions surfaced between Hizbollah and Israel.
Difficult economic conditions continued to foment protest and public unrest. Public school teachers 3 June called week-long strike over their devalued wages and working conditions. Employees of state electricity provider Electricite du Liban 13-23 June held limited strike in relation to delayed salary payments. Demonstrators 15 June vandalised four separate banks in capital Beirut’s Sin El Fil neighbourhood to protest lack of access to their deposits. During June, internet services cut intermittently in some areas as state telecommunications infrastructure operator struggled to secure enough fuel to power its plants. Meanwhile, UN’s International Organisation for Migration 13 June confirmed that in 2022 “an increasing number of deadly incidents took place after boats departed from Lebanon, destined for Greece and Italy”, recording at least 174 deaths.
Presidential vacuum entered its eighth consecutive month. Parliament 14 June convened to hold first presidential election session since Jan but again failed to elect new head of state; opposition’s preferred candidate Jihad Azour secured 59 of 128 votes (short of 86 required to win) in first round before MPs aligned with Shiite parties Hizbollah and Amal Movement frustrated quorum in second vote, where only 65 votes are needed. Political parties scaled up incendiary rhetoric around vote: referring to Azour, Shiite parties 11 June asserted they “would not accept a candidate imposed by Tel Aviv”, while Maronite Patriarch Bechara Al Rahi accused Shiite parties of making mockery of democracy by obstructing second round. Parliament 19 June convened for ordinary session strictly limited to approving temporary benefits for public employees and retirees; Free Patriotic Movement party attended session, again relaxing its previous stance of opposition to non-electoral sessions.
Tensions persisted between Hizbollah and Israel. Israeli media 21 June reported that Hizbollah operatives had allegedly maintained at least two tents in disputed Shebaa Farms area for several weeks. Hizbollah 26 June claimed it downed Israeli drone that entered Lebanese airspace near Zibqin town in south.
Nothing happens in southern Lebanon without Hezbollah’s knowledge.
Israel and one of its neighbors [Lebanon] - a neighbor that doesn't officially recognize Israel - have come to a constructive solution for a conflict. And that's histor...
Israeli security interests are best served by Lebanon's economy being rebuilt rather than the crisis getting worse.
The CrisisWatch Digest Lebanon offers a monthly one-page snapshot of conflict-related country trends in a clear, accessible format, using a map of the region to pinpoint developments.
Barring an eleventh-hour compromise, Lebanon will soon be without a president. An extended vacancy could stall action needed to ease the country’s economic crisis, risking unrest. With outside help, politicians should strive to avert this outcome – and to find ameliorative measures for the interim.
Domestic politics in Israel and Lebanon could scuttle talks about their claims in the Mediterranean – and to the gas riches underneath. With the U.S. mediator’s help, the two countries should refocus on achieving an accord that serves their mutual interest and spares them a confrontation.
On 15 May, amid a continuing economic meltdown, Lebanese voters chose a new parliament. In this Q&A, Crisis Group expert David Wood parses the results and assesses the implications for efforts to resolve the country’s deepening crisis.
Crisis Group’s Watch List identifies ten countries or regions at risk of deadly conflict or escalation thereof in 2022. In these places, early action, driven or supported by the EU and its member states, could enhance prospects for peace and stability.
This Crisis Group documentary gives voice to those coping with a state nearing collapse. It shows why today's interlocking crises are so much deeper and more dangerous than many others that have plagued Lebanon over nearly half a century of deadly conflicts.
Lebanon’s imploding economy is deepening instability in the country. Public safety is further imperilled as state institutions weaken and regional tensions play out in Lebanese domestic politics. In this excerpt from the Watch List 2022, Crisis Group urges the EU and its member states to provide financial support to the Lebanese state, press for elections to be held on schedule and intensify efforts to reduce tension in the region.
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