The Future of Conflict (FoC) Program focuses on three issues – climate change, digital technologies, and the global economy – that are already redefining the conflict landscape. Climate change is increasing food insecurity, water scarcity and resource competition, while disrupting livelihoods and spurring migration. Technological change is transforming social order, from the use of social media to foment unrest to new weapons for waging war and suppressing dissent. The economic fragility of states threatens their pathways to peace, the extraction of oil, gas and minerals have contributed to new security challenges, and the increased use of economic sanctions has too often exacerbated the humanitarian impacts of conflict.
Organised crime in Mexico has gone local, as cartels break up into sub-groups battling over smaller patches of turf. At the same time, the federal government has wrested policing away from town halls. A reset is needed to re-empower municipal officials to protect the public.
As Twitter limits access to a tool to analyse conversations on the platform, researchers will be deprived of information that sheds light on political hate speech and incitement to violence. That will have real-world implications for tracking election meddling, disinformation campaigns and human rights abuses.
On 19 May, when G7 leaders gather in Japan, Russia’s war in Ukraine will be high on their agenda, as will China’s posture in the Asia Pacific. But several other pressing matters need their attention as well.
A victim’s relative is among those accusing Meta in a Kenyan court of failing to adequately police incendiary speech on Facebook during Ethiopia’s civil war. Much greater effort from the company is warranted. But Meta’s task is hardly straightforward.
A series of failed rainy seasons in northern Kenya has sharpened competition among herders, farmers and conservancy owners for land and water, often resulting in bloodshed. Authorities should redouble aid to hard-hit areas and, with donor support, look for ways to encourage sharing of resources.
In the run-up to COP27, Crisis Group experts contribute their views on how climate change shapes the conflicts and crises they work on.
Overlapping crises have added to the economic burdens of many countries, particularly those already in debt. In this excerpt from the Watch List 2023, Crisis Group lays out steps the EU and its member states can take to reduce vulnerability and risks of unrest.
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