In major blow to prospects for competitive 2024 presidential poll, govt announced opposition frontrunner is barred from holding public office for 15 years, meaning she is unable to participate in election; govt also moved to replace national electoral council.

Key opposition figure banned from running in presidential election. 14 candidates officially registered by 24 June deadline to enter race for opposition primary election, scheduled for Oct to select single candidate for 2024 presidential election. Yet in worrying challenge to free elections in Venezuela, govt-controlled Comptroller General’s Office 30 June said sanction imposed against frontrunner María Corina Machado in 2015 prevents her from holding public office for 15 years, meaning she is banned from running in presidential election. In rare show of unity, opposition candidates immediately rejected Machado’s disqualification, as did other govts such as Colombia and U.S., who said ban “deprives the Venezuelan people of basic political rights”.

Govt kickstarted process to appoint new electoral council. Govt-controlled National Assembly 15 June voted to replace National Electoral Council’s (CNE) 15-member board (five principal members and ten substitutes), claiming they had resigned en masse, even though the two independent principals did not step down until 19, 20 June. Despite its pro-govt majority, reports suggested govt did not trust CNE to do its bidding unconditionally in 2024 presidential poll. Legislators same day formed commission, most of whose 11 members belong to ruling party, to appoint new CNE. NGO Human Rights Watch 22 June said govt’s decision “increases concerns for the prospect of free and fair presidential election” in 2024. In response, opposition Unitary Platform’s National Primary Commission 16 June said it would not seek CNE assistance for primary election; commission had wanted assistance with voting centres and use of official polling machines to expand scale of vote and help bolster credibility of election outcome.

In other important developments. UN refugee agency 14 June announced Venezuelan asylum applications had increased 186% in 2022 to 264,000. International Criminal Court 27 June ruled prosecutors can resume investigation into potential crimes against humanity in Venezuela after concluding govt’s enquiry was insufficient; prosecutor had paused initial investigation in April 2022, deferring to govt request to conduct its own probe.

In major blow to prospects for competitive 2024 presidential poll, govt announced opposition frontrunner is barred from holding public office for 15 years, meaning she is unable to participate in election; govt also moved to replace national electoral council.

Key opposition figure banned from running in presidential election. 14 candidates officially registered by 24 June deadline to enter race for opposition primary election, scheduled for Oct to select single candidate for 2024 presidential election. Yet in worrying challenge to free elections in Venezuela, govt-controlled Comptroller General’s Office 30 June said sanction imposed against frontrunner María Corina Machado in 2015 prevents her from holding public office for 15 years, meaning she is banned from running in presidential election. In rare show of unity, opposition candidates immediately rejected Machado’s disqualification, as did other govts such as Colombia and U.S., who said ban “deprives the Venezuelan people of basic political rights”.

Govt kickstarted process to appoint new electoral council. Govt-controlled National Assembly 15 June voted to replace National Electoral Council’s (CNE) 15-member board (five principal members and ten substitutes), claiming they had resigned en masse, even though the two independent principals did not step down until 19, 20 June. Despite its pro-govt majority, reports suggested govt did not trust CNE to do its bidding unconditionally in 2024 presidential poll. Legislators same day formed commission, most of whose 11 members belong to ruling party, to appoint new CNE. NGO Human Rights Watch 22 June said govt’s decision “increases concerns for the prospect of free and fair presidential election” in 2024. In response, opposition Unitary Platform’s National Primary Commission 16 June said it would not seek CNE assistance for primary election; commission had wanted assistance with voting centres and use of official polling machines to expand scale of vote and help bolster credibility of election outcome.

In other important developments. UN refugee agency 14 June announced Venezuelan asylum applications had increased 186% in 2022 to 264,000. International Criminal Court 27 June ruled prosecutors can resume investigation into potential crimes against humanity in Venezuela after concluding govt’s enquiry was insufficient; prosecutor had paused initial investigation in April 2022, deferring to govt request to conduct its own probe.

Opposition issued regulations for primary vote in Oct, govt introduced new law to protect foreign assets, and Brazil’s president held talks with Maduro.

Electoral commission published regulations for opposition primaries. Independent commission charged by opposition coalition Unitary Platform with organising primary election in October to choose presidential candidate for 2024 poll 7 May published regulations for process. These include online procedure enabling Venezuelans abroad to vote, provided they are already registered to vote in Venezuela. Commission plans to set up polling stations in 80 cities in 31 countries, where voting will be manual; it has yet to decide whether to ask govt-controlled National Electoral Council (CNE) for assistance in facilitating automated process in Venezuela using official polling stations, amid fears CNE involvement would compromise election’s integrity and deter many people from voting.

Govt introduced legislation to protect foreign assets. U.S. Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control 1 May decided to no longer protect Venezuelan state-owned oil refiner Citgo, based in U.S. and managed by opposition, from negotiations over its future, potentially paving way for sale of Citgo shares to pay off creditors; President Maduro same day condemned move. Govt 16 May introduced draft legislation threatening lengthy prison sentences and confiscation of assets for anyone “directly or indirectly” involved in what it terms “theft” of Venezuelan assets abroad; Maduro 22 May signed bill into law.

Brazil’s leader launched efforts to bolster ties with Maduro. Brazilian President “Lula” da Silva 29 May held talks with Maduro in Brazil’s capital in push to strengthen relations. Lula called for free elections in Venezuela, condemned U.S. sanctions and invited Maduro to fight against narrative of anti-democracy and authoritarianism “built against Venezuela”. Chilean President Boric and Uruguay’s President Luis Lacalle Pou criticised Lula’s choice of words, highlighting Maduro’s responsibility in Venezuela’s crisis. Meanwhile, exiled opposition leader Juan Guaidó 14 May announced tour of European capitals to urge govts against normalising relations with Maduro.

Colombia hosted international summit to reactivate talks between govt and opposition, and Maduro floated prospect of early presidential poll without proposals to improve election conditions.

Conference on Venezuela took place in Colombia. Colombian President Petro 25 April hosted international conference on Venezuela in Colombian capital Bogotá, aimed at prompting resumption of talks between Maduro govt and opposition. Representatives from 19 countries and EU attended. Petro did not invite Venezuelan parties, though his govt 17, 22 April held meetings with President Maduro and representatives of opposition alliance Unitary Platform; both endorsed initiative. U.S. President Biden 20 April also expressed cautious support during meeting with Petro in U.S. capital Washington, while insisting that only substantial steps to restore democracy would lead to lifting of sanctions.

Participants urged sides to resume talks and improve electoral conditions. Following conference, Colombian FM 25 April said participants had agreed on need for return to Mexico City negotiating process and steps toward free elections in return for gradual lifting of U.S. sanctions. Maduro same day reiterated his support for dialogue but conditioned on release of some $3bn in Venezuelan state assets held abroad and lifting of sanctions; President of National Assembly Jorge Rodríguez same day also demanded that International Criminal Court suspend its investigation into alleged crimes against humanity in Venezuela and that U.S. release businessman and close govt ally Alex Saab.

Maduro dangled prospect of early polls amid concern about election conditions. At rally to celebrate 21st anniversary of Hugo Chávez’s return to power following coup, Maduro 13 April once again insisted that presidential election slated for 2024 could be brought forward to 2023, but has yet to announce timetable, adding to uncertainty regarding electoral process. Meanwhile, govt-controlled National Electoral Council 18 April announced it would not grant requests from opposition’s primary election Commission regarding conditions for October primary, which commission has been tasked with organising. In particular, council refused to eliminate use of fingerprinting machines, which are likely to reduce voter turnout and exacerbate divisions within opposition over Electoral Council’s involvement.

Several candidates announced bids for opposition primaries as debate about involving govt-controlled Electoral Council continued; corruption case revealed factional fighting in ruling party.

Opposition parties ramped up their campaigns ahead of Oct primaries. After winning landslide victory in Primero Justicia party’s internal elections late Feb, Henrique Capriles 10 March launched candidacy for opposition primaries scheduled for Oct 2023 in bid to become opposition’s candidate in 2024 presidential race; Capriles is barred from standing for elected office and it is unclear what would become of his candidacy should he win primaries. Another leading contender, Maria Corina Machado, also barred from running for office, has already begun campaigning on a stridently anti-socialist ticket. Notably, Machado 5 March said public companies, including state-owned oil company PDVSA, should be privatised; Capriles 1o March criticised Machado’s comments. Meanwhile, Popular Will, party of ousted opposition leader Juan Guaidó, 7 March announced it had selected Guaidó to run in Oct.

Disagreements around involving National Electoral Council in primaries persisted. Independent Commission set up by opposition coalition Unitary Platform to organise primaries 8 March began talks with govt-controlled National Electoral Council to clarify what technical assistance council could provide. Some continued to oppose council’s involvement, arguing state participation would limit number of people willing to vote and facilitate govt interference, but Commission sources told Crisis Group turnout could be cut in half without official polling stations.

Factional fighting within ruling party surfaced. Battles within ruling party came to light when authorities 17-19 March arrested around two dozen people, half of them officials reportedly linked to Oil Minister Tareck El Aissami. Arrests appear linked to disappearance of at least $3bn in oil revenues, which VP Delcy Rodríguez and her brother Jorge Rodríguez, president of National Assembly and govt’s chief negotiator, reportedly blame on Aissami, who is head of rival chavista faction. Aissami 20 March tendered his resignation, Maduro next day appointed PDVSA President Pedro Tellechea as oil minister.

In other important developments. Colombian President Petro 28 March announced govt will host international conference in Colombia’s capital Bogotá to support dialogue between “Venezuelan opposition, civil society […] and the Venezuelan government”.

Preparation for opposition primaries in October continued, but internal divisions persisted; Mexico talks remained stalled.

Opposition announced schedule for primaries amid internal disputes. Independent commission, set up by opposition coalition Unitary Platform to organise election for single candidate to run in 2024 poll, 15 Feb announced timetable for process, which will culminate in vote 22 Oct. Unresolved issues remain, however. Notably, opposition is divided over whether to request logistical support from govt-controlled National Electoral Council. Some potential candidates reject its involvement, including front runner María Corina Machado, who 15 Feb claimed it was an “instrument” President Maduro could use to sabotage process; commission’s president, Jesús María Casal, 16 Feb reiterated that eschewing use of official polling stations would vastly increase cost of election and reduce voter participation. Controversy also persisted over diaspora vote. Of around 3mn Venezuelans living abroad, just over 100,000 are registered to vote; hardliners claim they are essential to process, but govt has little incentive to register them since most are likely opposition voters, and commission has limited capacity to do so.

Mexico talks between govt and opposition remained stalled. Despite Maduro govt’s refusal to schedule another official round of talks with Unitary Platform in Mexico, informal discussions continued early month in capital Caracas. In televised comments, however, Maduro 15 Feb accused opposition of failing to fulfil its commitment under Nov humanitarian agreement to transfer frozen funds to UN for infrastructural and other projects in Venezuela, claiming govt has no motive “to sit down again with that group”. Informal talks have not resumed since.

In other important developments. U.S. 6 Feb assumed control of Venezuelan diplomatic properties in Washington and New York in response to mainstream opposition’s decision to dissolve “interim presidency” of Juan Guaidó; opposition envoys 8 Feb were denied entry. Colombian President Petro and Maduro 16 Feb met at shared border to sign trade agreement.

Opposition selected new parliamentary leadership, Mexico talks between govt and opposition stalled, and protests over low wages erupted across country.

Opposition elected new parliamentary leadership, exposing deep internal cleavages. After mainstream opposition late Dec dissolved so-called “interim presidency” of Juan Guaidó, opposition-led National Assembly 5 Jan voted for new leadership, comprising three women, including incoming head Dinorah Figuera from Justice First (PJ) party. All three are in exile and represent so-called “G3” – three largest parties in opposition alliance Unitary Platform – which are increasingly at odds with Popular Will (VP), Guaidó’s party. Exiled VP leader Leopoldo López 12 Jan accused several leading G3 politicians in Unitary Platform delegation to Nov Mexico City dialogue of allying with President Maduro, claiming delegation was “infiltrated”. In same briefing, López blamed PJ’s Julio Borges for failure of 2019 coup attempt, triggering prosecutors 16 Jan to issue arrest warrant for Borges. Meanwhile, opposition-led National Assembly 19 Jan named five-person executive committee to manage Venezuelan assets held abroad.

Efforts to schedule next round of Mexico talks stalled over frozen assets. Maduro govt refused to agree to schedule second meeting of renewed Mexico City talks with Unitary Platform until U.S. unfreezes funds promised under Nov agreement. Unitary Platform delegation 13 Jan met U.S. Assistant Sec State Brian Nichols in U.S. capital Washington DC to resolve issue, but returned without apparent progress. Maduro’s chief negotiator and National Assembly President Jorge Rodríguez 17 Jan said there was “no reason to continue a dialogue with people who don’t keep their word”.

Fresh wave of labour unrest erupted. Demonstrations occurred throughout month as public sector wages sank further in real terms, fuelled by substantial devaluation of bolívar currency. Teachers 9 Jan began nationwide protests over wages and conditions, prompting govt-backed armed civilian groups known as colectivos in Aragua state 14 Jan to threaten consequences; National Guard 19 Jan reportedly warned protesting teachers they could face reprisals by colectivos. Union representatives at state-owned Sidor steel plant in Bolívar state said authorities 9-12 Jan arrested at least 12 workers amid labour unrest. Public sector workers 23 Jan marched in cities across country, including Maracaibo (Zulia state) and Valencia (Carabobo state).

Opposition voted to dissolve Guaidó’s interim govt amid ongoing efforts to forge united front ahead of 2024 polls; dialogue initiatives between govt and opposition remained strained.

Opposition voted to end interim govt led by Juan Guaidó. Opposition-led National Assembly 30 Dec overwhelmingly voted to dissolve Guaidó’s interim presidency, with 72 votes in favour, 29 against and eight abstentions, after opposition said interim govt was no longer “perceived as an option for real political change”; opposition parties seek united front with single candidate to run against President Maduro in 2024 polls. Guaidó 31 Dec warned that removal of interim govt would bolster Maduro’s regime. Meanwhile, opposition 21 Dec announced plans to create executive committees to manage Venezuelan assets held abroad, such as Citgo Petroleum, currently managed by interim govt.

Govt held discussions with opposition parties outside Unitary Platform. Following resumption of Norwegian-facilitated Mexico City dialogue in Nov, opposition alliance Unitary Platform 3 Dec issued statement asking govt to schedule further meeting to discuss political issues, such as electoral reform; statement came amid Maduro’s apparent reluctance to organise another meeting. Authorities 2 Dec held parallel talks with opposition parties outside platform, including several representatives of opposition coalition Democratic Alliance, while simultaneously labelling Unitary Platform members “terrorists”. Govt’s chief negotiator and National Assembly President Jorge Rodríguez same day said talks would yield agreement covering social, economic, political and electoral matters “in thirty days”.

In other important developments. U.S. federal judge 23 Dec rejected attempt by close Maduro ally and businessman Alex Saab, currently detained in U.S. on money-laundering charges, to claim diplomatic immunity and avoid trial; Maduro has frequently demanded Saab’s release.

Dialogue between authorities and opposition resumed in Mexico after one year on hold as sides signed long-awaited agreement to alleviate humanitarian crisis.

Govt and opposition signed humanitarian deal during resumed Mexico talks. Govt and opposition 26 Nov re-joined Norwegian-facilitated Mexico City dialogue, suspended since Oct 2021, and signed long-awaited deal to gradually unfreeze some $3bn in Venezuelan state assets held abroad; agreement is intended to provide finance, under UN supervision, for improvements in electricity infrastructure as well as health, education and food projects, to alleviate humanitarian crisis. UN Sec-Gen Guterres 27 Nov welcomed agreement and called on parties to “remain fully engaged” in negotiations. Going forward, discussions expected to centre around resolution of underlying political conflict. U.S. 26 Nov responded to advances in negotiations by exempting oil company Chevron from sanctions, allowing it to expand oil production and sell it on U.S. market. Oil Minister Tareck El Aissami 29 Nov announced govt had signed contracts with Chevron.

Preparation for opposition primaries continued. Opposition alliance Unitary Platform 15 Nov installed commission charged with organising primaries in 2023 to select single candidate for 2024 presidential election. Commission must decide on number of contentious issues, such as whether to seek assistance from govt-controlled National Electoral Council and/or international electoral bodies, and how to ensure participation of Venezuelan diaspora, which currently numbers around 7mn. Law Professor Jesús María Casal, who chairs commission, 15 Nov said it would immediately begin consultations with political parties, potential candidates and civil society.

Colombian and Venezuelan leaders pledged cooperation during Caracas meeting. As Colombian President Petro 1 Nov conducted first official visit to capital Caracas, he and President Maduro signed joint communiqué pledging cooperation in areas such as trade, border security, consular services and transport links. Meeting however failed to produce many concrete commitments. Notably, Venezuela did not agree to return to inter-American human rights system, despite Colombian govt’s indications it would, nor did communiqué mention Venezuela’s return to Andean Community trading bloc, despite Maduro’s comments to the contrary 1 Nov.

Opposition agreed on schedule for primaries ahead of 2024 polls, govt suffered diplomatic setbacks at UN human rights council, and U.S. imposed new laws to curb Venezuelan migration.

Opposition agreed on timetable for primaries, but faced challenge at Organization of American States (OAS). Amid claims that Mexico talks between govt and opposition alliance Unitary Platform could soon resume, Platform representatives mid-Oct met in Panama with head of U.S. Venezuela Affairs Unit Ambassador James Story. According to 14 Oct report by Reuters news agency, opposition leaders agreed to hold primaries in June 2023 ahead of 2024 presidential election. However, 19 Oct communiqué outlining rules for primaries did not mention enlisting collaboration of National Electoral Council, suggesting participation could be severely curtailed due to inadequate technical capabilities; participation could also be limited as most members of Venezuelan diaspora, now around seven mn, will not be able to participate due to onerous conditions for registration and lack of access to consulates. Meanwhile, at OAS General Assembly held 5-7 Oct in Peru’s capital Lima, motion challenging status of opposition leader Juan Guaidó’s representative, Gustavo Tarre, as Venezuela’s permanent representative at OAS failed to obtain required 2/3 majority. However, 19 members backed proposal to discuss removing Tarre, indicating region’s growing impatience with recognition of “interim govt”.

Internationally, govt suffered diplomatic setbacks on human rights front. UN Human Rights Council 7 Oct voted to extend mandate of Fact-Finding Mission on Venezuela by two years; body, which FM Carlos Faría same day described as “designed for interventionism”, mid-Sept had reported that human rights violations have been govt policy under President Maduro since 2014. In further setback for govt, Venezuela 11 Oct lost bid for re-election to UN Human Rights Council, obtaining only 88 votes compared to Costa Rica’s 134 and Chile’s 144.

U.S. announced plans to expel Venezuelans entering U.S. illegally to Mexico. In bid to curb rising numbers of Venezuelans entering U.S., Washington 12 Oct announced it would begin applying former President Trump’s Title 42 provision of immigration law to Venezuelans, meaning those who enter U.S. without visas will be expelled to Mexico, which agreed to host them (see Mexico).

Dialogue between authorities and opposition remained on hold, opposition started preparations ahead of 2024 polls, and restoration of diplomatic relations with Colombia proceeded apace.

Mexico dialogue between govt and opposition remained stalled. U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee 15 Sept held hearing on policy toward Venezuela. U.S. Assistant Sec State for Western Hemisphere Affairs Brian Nichols reaffirmed Biden administration’s goal of persuading Maduro govt to return to suspended negotiations in Mexico City with opposition in exchange for limited sanctions relief. Under pressure from Republican members and committee chair Senator Bob Menéndez, Nichols stressed Washington’s continued support for “interim govt” and willingness to take “comprehensive” measures if progress on talks was not achieved. Maduro same day dismissed threat, saying U.S. would never again be world’s “only empire”.

Opposition made progress on preparations for primaries. Opposition alliance Unitary Platform 15 Sept announced plans to appoint special commission with members drawn from civil society, responsible for overseeing primaries to select single candidate for 2024 presidential election. Platform same day said it had reached “important agreements” with other opposition groups willing to participate, although several such groups, including breakaway faction of Acción Democrática party, have already announced their own candidates for 2024 election. In report published 20 Sept, UN Independent Fact-Finding Mission on Venezuela found that Venezuela’s state security agencies have committed “crimes against humanity” since 2014 as “part of a plan designed by high-level authorities to repress opponents of the Government”. Govt same day rejected “false and baseless accusations”.

Authorities continued to strengthen diplomatic relations with Bogotá, reopened shared border. Colombian President Petro 12 Sept submitted formal request to Venezuela to act as guarantor in planned peace talks with National Liberation Army (ELN) guerrilla group, which has substantial presence in Venezuela; President Maduro 13 Sept accepted request. Members of ELN negotiating team same day reportedly left for Caracas from Cuba’s capital Havana, where they had remained in exile since 2019 when talks with Colombian govt broke down. Marking another step forward in bilateral relations, Colombia-Venezuela border 26 Sept reopened, although anticipated meeting between Maduro and Petro did not take place.

Colombia and Venezuela restored diplomatic relations, Mexico dialogue remained on hold, and divisions within opposition over question of primaries to elect candidate for 2024 elections persisted. After govt and incoming Colombian administration late-July agreed to reestablish diplomatic relations, Colombian President Petro 28 Aug sent new ambassador, Armando Benedetti, to Caracas, reversing outgoing Colombian President Duque’s confrontational policy toward Venezuela; President Maduro same day sent former FM Félix Plasencia as Venezuela's representative in Bogotá. Meanwhile, opposition leader Juan Guaidó 12 Aug claimed there had been “informal meetings” between opposition leadership and Petro’s govt, but said he wished Petro had not so quickly recognised Maduro’s govt, which he accused of “harbouring terrorism”. Amid restoration of relations, govt 4 Aug announced it would seek extradition of leading opposition politician Julio Borges from Colombia, whom Caracas accuses of orchestrating Aug 2018 drone explosion near Maduro during military parade. Court same day sentenced Borges’ Primero Justicia party member, Juan Requesens, to eight years in prison for involvement in same drone attack; 16 others received up to 30 years. Govt’s chief negotiator Jorge Rodríguez 9 Aug said talks with opposition could not resume until Venezuelan cargo plane, held in Argentina since early-June at Washington’s request because of suspected links to Iranian Revolutionary Guard (which remains on U.S.’ terrorism blacklist), was returned; meanwhile, opposition’s Chief Negotiator Gerardo Blyde 15 Aug said there was “very high probability” that formal Mexico talks between govt and opposition would soon resume. Opposition alliance Unitary Platform remained divided over issue of primaries to select candidate for 2024 presidential election; hardliners, including Leopoldo López of Voluntad Popular, want primaries held in early 2023, while moderates prefer end of next year, and some accuse rivals of being more interested in settling issue of opposition leadership than participating in 2024 elections.

Govt agreed to reestablish diplomatic ties with Colombia following election of Gustavo Petro as president, Mexico talks remained on hold, and opposition parties began preparations for “open primaries” ahead of 2024 elections. Govt and incoming Colombian administration 28 July agreed to reestablish diplomatic relations. In joint declaration, FM Carlos Faria and Alvaro Leyva, Colombia’s designated foreign minister under incoming President Petro, said both govts will appoint ambassadors to their respective capitals and work to strengthen security along their shared border. Elsewhere on diplomatic front, top govt official 25 July insisted that if U.S. wanted access to Venezuelan oil and gas, it would have to “negotiate [directly] with the Government”. FM Faria 4 July met his Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov in Moscow, where they announced further cooperation to skirt U.S. sanctions and on investment projects. Mexico talks between govt and opposition remained suspended. Meanwhile, some opposition political parties geared up for “open primaries” announced in June by opposition alliance Unitary Platform to select candidate for 2024 presidential election. Notably, Primero Justicia party (Unitary Platform member) 9 July held internal elections for over 12,000 national, regional, municipal and parish representatives, while opposition figure Henri Falcón 18 July announced his newly created Movimiento party will participate in Unitary Platform’s primaries. Security forces 4-7 July arrested trade union activists and members of left-wing anti-Maduro party Bandera Roja, charging five of them under anti-terrorist and organised crime laws. Local human rights organisation Provea 13 July said arrests followed same pattern of harassment of civil society activists documented by UN High Commissioner for Human Rights in report published late June. After delegation led by U.S. President Biden’s chief hostage negotiator late June failed to secure release of two U.S. hostages, media outlet Associated Press 13 July gave details of three other unreported cases of U.S. citizens arrested in Venezuela this year who are still detained. All three – two of whom were detained after high-level U.S. delegation visited Caracas in March – were accused of illegally entering country from Colombia.

Talks about resumption of Mexico dialogue continued, govt supporters attacked opposition leader Juan Guaidó, and President Maduro embarked on international tour to strengthen foreign relations. While U.S. govt and Venezuelan opposition continued to insist during month that resumption of suspended Mexico talks between govt and opposition was imminent, series of violent attacks against opposition leader Juan Guaidó during country tour cast doubt. Chavista militants 4 June tried to prevent Guaidó from speaking in Maracaibo municipality by throwing chairs at organisers; 11 June forced Guaidó to flee meeting in Cojedes state. U.S. Sec of State Antony Blinken 12 June and European External Action Service 15 June condemned violence. In slight easing of sanctions, U.S. State Department reportedly sent letters to European oil companies Eni and Repsol early June allowing export of sanctioned Venezuelan oil to Europe for first time in two years, in apparent move to collect billions in unpaid debt owed by govt. U.S. Treasury Department 17 June removed Carlos Malpica Flores, former national treasurer and nephew of first lady, from U.S. sanctions list. Internationally, U.S. barred Venezuela, along with Nicaragua and Cuba, from 6-10 June Americas Summit in Los Angeles, defying pressure from Mexican President López Obrador, who subsequently boycotted event. U.S. President Biden 8 June held phone conversation with opposition leader Guaidó, reaffirmed support for interim leader and need for dialogue despite not inviting him to summit. U.S. delegation 27 June visited capital Caracas in attempt to secure release of detained Americans; effort failed and delegation left country on 30 June. In apparent bid to show he is not internationally isolated, Maduro 7 June embarked on trip to Turkey, Iran, Algeria, Kuwait and Qatar. In Iran, Maduro 11 June signed 20-year cooperation plan with govt. Venezuelan govt 4 June announced it would hold “counter-summit on 28-29 June” in San Cristobal city near Colombian border to reject Madrid NATO summit, which focused on Ukraine war. Meanwhile, Colombia’s President-elect Gustavo Petro 22 June spoke with Maduro about his commitment to reopen shared border, closed since 2015; Maduro reaffirmed willingness to “re-establish normalcy” at border.

Prospects for revival of Mexico talks between govt and opposition continued to stall, and Unitary Platform took steps to unify opposition ahead of 2024 elections. To encourage resumption of suspended Mexico talks between govt and opposition, U.S. officials 17 May indicated Washington would authorise U.S. oil company Chevron Corp to negotiate directly with Maduro govt and reportedly offered to lift sanctions against relative of First Lady Cilia Flores; leaders of both sides’ negotiating teams, govt’s representative Jorge Rodríguez and Unitary Platform’s Gerardo Blyde, same day met to discuss possible return to negotiations. However, Rodríguez 19 May insisted that businessman and Maduro’s close collaborator Alex Saab, who is awaiting trial on money-laundering charges in U.S., should participate in talks. U.S. president’s top Latin America adviser Juan González 19 May said further easing of sanctions, which would allow foreign oil companies to resume production and sell on U.S. market, depended on progress toward free and fair elections in Venezuela; González added that Maduro govt would not be able to profit from oil sales and that such measures would be reversed if it reneged on commitments. News of potential sanctions relief prompted hostile response from some of Venezuelan opposition’s allies in U.S. Congress, including Senate foreign relations chair Bob Menendez; U.S. Treasury Department 27 May renewed Chevron’s licence under same restricted conditions, seemingly quashing hopes of talks resumption. Meanwhile, opposition group Unitary Platform, under pressure from Washington, took steps toward greater unity during meeting in Panama. In statement published 16 May, it announced decision to appoint former National Assembly president Omar Barboza as coordinator, introduce new decision-making process and hold primaries, possibly in early 2023, to choose presidential candidate for 2024 elections; also called for “deep consultation process with the whole country” to determine procedure for primaries. Issues such as participation in primaries of Venezuelans abroad and whether govt-dominated electoral authority should be in charge of organising primary vote still needed to be resolved by end of month. Maduro, who has consolidated political control over country and Chavista movement, 16 May reshuffled cabinet. Notably, former ambassador to Moscow Carlos Faría replaced Foreign Minister Félix Plasencia.

President Maduro met with civil society platform, Mexico talks with opposition remained on hold, and two governments renewed diplomatic engagement with authorities. President Maduro 5 April received leading members of Foro Cívico civil society platform and – separately – leaders of moderate opposition Alianza Democrática; decision to meet harshly criticised by some as lending legitimacy to Maduro, questioned by some of Foro’s own members. Foro Cívico leaders insisted they did not have time to seek approval from associated organisations and therefore attended as “citizens”. Letter addressed to U.S. administration published 14 April, which called for more flexible approach to sanctions and contained some signatories linked to Foro Cívico, provoked further hostility. Meanwhile, Mexico talks still on hold by end of the month. Despite apparent disagreements within ruling party over appointment of new slimmed-down Supreme Court, ruling party-controlled National Assembly 26 April proceeded with nominations, named 20 overwhelmingly pro-govt magistrates to country’s Supreme Court (TSJ), dashing hopes on part of some in opposition for a more balanced court; TSJ judges 27 April appointed U.S.-sanctioned Gladys Gutiérrez as Court’s new president. Non-governmental organisation Foro Penal 29 April denounced detention of 240 political prisoners. International Criminal Court (ICC)’s Chief Prosecutor Karim Khan 1 April agreed to set up office in capital Caracas to resume in-country investigation into alleged crimes against humanity in Venezuela since Feb 2014; 20 April announced he would seek court’s authorisation to continue investigation, despite govt’s request for deferral. Meanwhile, strategy adopted by U.S. and allies to diplomatically isolate Maduro’s govt appeared to be losing momentum. Notably, Argentina’s President Alberto Fernández 18 April announced plans to restore full diplomatic relations, while Portugal’s next head of mission in Caracas will seek accreditation as ambassador, according to diplomatic sources, breaking with EU members’ policy of keeping relations at level of chargés d’affaires.

Following Russia’s late-Feb invasion of Ukraine, U.S. officials and President Maduro’s govt held first bilateral talks in years; Mexico dialogue between authorities and opposition remained on hold. In unexpected move and for first time since 2016, senior U.S. officials 5 March travelled to capital Caracas to meet President Maduro’s govt as trip reportedly focused on assessing Maduro’s willingness to resume negotiations and release U.S. prisoners in exchange for sanctions’ relief. Following visit, Venezuelan authorities 8 March released two U.S citizens, including one of six oil executives arrested in 2017. While some U.S. officials insisted visit was primarily about prisoners’ release, White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki 7 March said issue of “energy security” and need to find alternative energy sources ahead of U.S. 8 March ban on imports of Russian oil was raised. U.S. officials 10 March said any sanction relief would depend on release of more jailed U.S citizens and setting firm date for resuming negotiations with opposition. Meanwhile, authorities signalled continued ties to key ally Russia during month: notably, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Maduro 1 March held call during which they discussed increasing strategic partnership between two countries; VP Delcy Rodriguez and Russian FM Sergei Lavrov 10 March also met in Turkey to review countries’ strategic alliance and discuss “complex” international situation. While dialogue with opposition remained on hold, govt 15 March said it was launching « inclusive » national dialogue and seeking meetings with political and business groups and unions so they could join negotiations alongside opposition politicians. Opposition leader Juan Guaidó throughout month continued to push for Mexico talks to resume, while Maduro’s top negotiator, National Assembly President Jorge Rodríguez, 18 March said talks “had fulfilled their objectives”. Rodríguez 18 March accused Guaidó and other members of Voluntad Popular party of links to an alleged drug trafficker, said govt would no longer talk to Guaidó. UN fact-finding mission on Venezuela 18 March submitted its latest report to UN Human Rights Council, concluding govt’s effort to investigate and prosecute perpetrators of crimes remained insufficient.

Dialogue initiative between authorities and opposition in Mexico City remained stalled, while low-level violence persisted at Colombian border. Supporters of opposition leader Juan Guaidó 12 Feb held peaceful gathering to reject authoritarian rule, turned up in small numbers with mostly members of Guaidó’s Voluntad Popular party and representatives from minor parties. Mexico talks between opposition and authorities remained stalled; International Contact Group (with among others Chile, Ecuador, EU, France, Germany and Spain) 4 Feb urged all parties to resume dialogue. U.S., EU and 19 other countries 16 Feb seconded dialogue request, highlighting willingness to review sanctions policies. U.S. court 16 Feb revealed Maduro’s close collaborator Colombian businessman Alex Saab was cooperating source for U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration from 2018 and provided agents with information about bribes he paid to Venezuelan officials; Maduro has frequently demanded Saab’s release, saying he is Venezuelan diplomat whose presence is needed for Mexico talks. After govt late Jan began process of slimming down Supreme Court from 32 to 20 members, 2 Feb installed parliamentary committee to appoint new justices; following discussion with some opposition and civil society members, govt accepted five of their nominations and extended nomination period until 21 Feb. Low-intensity conflict continued in Apure state at Colombian border: Defence Minister Vladimir Padrino 11 Feb said military operations killed at least nine illegal armed groups members; shoot-out between National Liberation Army and dissident faction of Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia known as 10th Front 7 Feb killed one civilian in El Amparo. Antipersonnel mines placed by warring guerrilla groups in rural areas first week of Feb killed eight civilians, also in Apure. EU election observer mission 22 Feb presented final report on 21 Nov elections in Belgian capital Brussels, having failed to get permission to present it in Caracas; said election conditions had improved, proposed 23 recommendations for changes. After Russian deputy PM Yuri Borisov 16 Feb visited capital Caracas, Maduro expressed full support for Russian invasion of Ukraine, promised “powerful military cooperation” between two countries. Venezuela 24 Feb reopened border with Brazil which had been closed for two years due to COVID-19 crisis.

Opposition gained Barinas state, ruling socialist stronghold, in elections rerun, govt quashed attempt to trigger recall referendum against President Maduro, and violence surged at Colombian border. In Barinas (south west), opposition candidate Sergio Garrido 9 Jan secured victory with 55% of vote in rerun of gubernatorial elections, adding to three governorships previously gained by opposition in Nov elections against 19 for ruling party; result reflects govt’s loss of support in rural heartland, holds symbolic significance as state had been run by late President Hugo Chávez’s family since 1998. Opposition alliance 4 Jan extended “interim presidency” of former President of National Assembly and opposition leader Juan Guaidó but drastically cut accompanying bureaucratic structure. National Electoral Council (CNE) 17 Jan approved three petitions to trigger presidential recall referendum (as per constitutional provisions allowing such poll, subject to support of 20% of electorate, when president’s mandate reaches mid-term). Council 22 Jan however imposed impracticable conditions on signature collection, requesting all 4.2mn signatures be collected in one day on 26 Jan; in response, opposition figures Nicmer Evans and César Perez Vivas same day requested Supreme Tribunal to review CNE’s decision, said they would use all legal means to get referendum. CNE 27 Jan said Maduro recall could not move ahead as opponents had only gathered over 42,000 signatures. Juan Guaidó 23 Jan called for Venezuelans to organise peaceful marches on 12 Feb to demand free and fair presidential elections. Fighting between National Liberation Army guerrilla group and dissident faction of Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia known as 10th Front flared on Colombian border (see Colombia). Authorities 16 Jan announced fresh military operation in Venezuela’s Apure state to “strengthen the territorial defence system” and fight Colombian armed groups. International Criminal Court 19 Jan granted authorities three-month extension to inform court about investigation into alleged crimes against humanity committed in country notably during crackdown on anti-govt protests in April-July 2017.

Political stalemate persisted as opposition remained in disarray and electoral dispute continued over recent polls in Barinas state. Following Nov win of ruling PSUV party in regional and local elections, protests 2 Dec erupted in Santa Rosalía municipality, Portuguesa state (south west) in response to disputed local election results; opposition supporters decried election fraud and demanded new elections after National Electoral Council (CNE) declared victory for ruling party candidate. Govt 3 Dec reportedly denied visa extension for EU observers, requiring them to leave on 5 Dec instead of 13 Dec as planned. In Barinas (south west), voters 4 Dec denounced Supreme Court’s decision to invalidate election results and retroactively disqualify opposition candidate Freddy Superlano from participating in new elections scheduled for 9 Jan; ruling party 5 Dec named former FM Jorge Arreaza candidate. CNE 22 Dec named six civil organisations as national observers for monitoring electoral transparency. Senior member and foreign affairs chief of opposition leader Juan Guaidó’s interim govt Julio Borges 5 Dec resigned and called for dismantling of interim govt; repeated previous calls for overseas assets currently held in opposition’s name to be transferred to trust, said current management “a scandal” and that they were being used for “personal ends”. Meanwhile, Guaidó-led opposition leadership continued to resist calls for greater transparency, insisted “interim govt” must remain until free and fair presidential elections. U.S. Envoy Roger Carstens 8-11 Dec visited country to meet President Maduro and discuss welfare of detained U.S. nationals, including six jailed oil executives with no apparent breakthrough; Maduro continued to demand release of close collaborator Colombian businessman Alex Saab, recently extradited to U.S. on money-laundering charges. After govt launched legal action against Bank of England to regain $1bn in gold reserves, UK Supreme Court 20 Dec said UK “unequivocally recognised opposition leader Juan Guaidó as president” rather than Maduro and referred case back to commercial court. Head of govt-led National Assembly 22 Dec called for session to discuss modifications to justice system, including reducing number of Supreme Court judges. Opposition-led National Assembly 27 Dec renewed its term and Guaidó’s mandate as “interim president” for one more year.

Ruling party secured sweeping victory in regional and local elections amid low turnout and international concerns over irregularities, and International Criminal Court opened formal investigation into crimes against humanity in Venezuela. In 21 Nov regional and local elections, ruling United Socialist Party won at least 19 out of 23 governor seats. In Barinas state, Supreme Court’s electoral branch 29 Nov retroactively disqualified opposition candidate Freddy Superlano, who was slightly leading in vote count, and ordered fresh election in Jan, sparking outcry. Results brought into sharp relief weakness and lack of unity of opposition, which participated in elections for first time since 2017; turnout of 41.8% also highlighted widespread voter disaffection. Violent incidents reported on election day in San Francisco town (Zulia state): notably, ruling party supporters known as colectivos reportedly killed man and injured two other people outside voting centre. U.S. Sec State Antony Blinken 22 Nov said elections “grossly skewed”, while Isabel Santos, EU observation mission’s chief observer, next day flagged irregularities including “arbitrary bans on candidates” and uneven playing field despite “better conditions” than in previous elections; in response, President Maduro 28 Nov called EU observers “enemies” and “spies”. After withdrawing from Mexico talks with opposition in Oct, Maduro 21 Nov said negotiations would not resume until Washington answered for “kidnapping” of govt envoy Alex Saab, who was extradited to U.S. by Cape Verde in Oct on money-laundering charges. After three-day visit to Venezuela, International Criminal Court (ICC)’s Prosecutor Karim Khan 3 Nov announced formal investigation into crimes against humanity committed in country since April 2017, including allegations of extrajudicial killings and torture by security forces during crackdown on anti-govt protests in April-July 2017; move marks first time Latin American country faces formal ICC scrutiny for possible crimes against humanity. Maduro immediately said his govt disagreed with decision but would collaborate with ICC; Maduro and Khan same day signed memorandum of understanding stipulating govt would “adopt all necessary measures” to ensure justice was done, and ICC would provide “support and active engagement”.

President Maduro suspended talks with opposition in protest against extradition of top ally to U.S. Cape Verde 16 Oct extradited businessman and Maduro’s close collaborator Alex Saab to U.S. on money-laundering charges. In response, govt immediately suspended talks with opposition, ahead of third round scheduled for 17-20 Oct in Mexico City; authorities same day also rearrested six oil executives, including five U.S. citizens, who had been under house arrest in capital Caracas on embezzlement charges. Opposition’s negotiating team and Norwegian facilitator 17 Oct urged govt to resume talks. Meanwhile, diplomatic spat erupted between EU and Caracas. In effort to reassure those concerned that EU election observation mission might “legitimise” regional and local elections scheduled for 21 Nov, Borrell 8 Oct said mission’s report, not its presence, would “legitimise or de-legitimise” process; govt same day condemned “interventionist” attitude and accused EU of favouring opposition. UN 14 Oct confirmed it would be sending expert panel to monitor elections. Opposition remained divided over fate of one of country’s major overseas assets, Colombia-based chemical company Monómeros, which has been under opposition control since 2019 and filed for bankruptcy in Sept. Senior member of opposition leader Juan Guaidó’s interim govt, Julio Borges, 12 Oct reiterated overseas assets should be supervised by multilateral agency rather than politicians. Guaidó’s Voluntad Popular party figure Leopoldo López same day insisted on extension of interim govt’s mandate when it expires in Jan 2022, arguing Maduro’s govt would otherwise regain control of overseas assets. Guaidó 12 Oct also said 2015-2021 opposition-controlled National Assembly had approved decree to designate new board of directors at Monómeros; other opposition parties however immediately rejected claim, said they had only approved establishment of commission of inquiry into Monómeros’ administration. Central Bank 1 Oct slashed six zeroes from bolívar currency to facilitate its use amid hyperinflation. Govt 5 Oct reopened border with Colombia after two-year closure due to political and diplomatic crisis. Imprisoned former Defence Minister Raul Baduel, considered political prisoner by opposition, 12 Oct died officially of COVID-19; UN and U.S. in following days called for independent investigation.

Govt and main opposition alliance reached limited agreements in Norwegian-facilitated talks, and President Maduro joined regional summit in first trip abroad in many months. Govt and opposition Unitary Platform made progress during second (3-6 Sept) and third (25-27 Sept) rounds of Norwegian-facilitated talks in Mexico City, reaching three partial agreements. First, parties reaffirmed country’s sovereignty over Essequibo region disputed with Guyana and rejected jurisdiction of International Court of Justice. Second, they agreed to set up six-person committee, National Board of Social Care, with three representatives from each side to address humanitarian crisis, including shortage of COVID-19 vaccines, and four-person working group to review problems arising from “overcompliance” with U.S. sanctions. Third, they agreed to begin process of setting up “consultation mechanisms” with “social and political actors” not represented at negotiation table. In move that threatens to stir tensions, govt 14 Sept however said it wished to include in talks businessman Alex Saab who is currently facing extradition from Cape Verde to U.S. on money-laundering charges; opposition delegation and U.S. quickly dismissed proposal. Govt delegation to talks 17 Sept publicly accused opposition of “sabotaging, conditioning and evading” terms agreed for talks; statement accused opposition leader Juan Guaidó of trying to break from his commitment to discuss return of country’s overseas assets, which have been under opposition control since 2019, to govt control. Chief Prosecutor Tarek William Saab 14 Sept had announced investigation into Guaidó for alleged treason and asset theft in relation to major overseas asset, Colombia-based chemical company Monómeros; opposition party Justice First 27 Sept announced it would no longer participate in Guaidó’s interim govt’s management of foreign assets. In first trip abroad since U.S. accused him of drug trafficking in early 2020, Maduro 18 Sept unexpectedly attended Community of Latin American and Caribbean States summit in Mexico City; Colombia, Uruguay and Paraguay presidents rejected his presence. UN fact-finding mission 16 Sept released new report, alleging country’s justice system does not provide protection to victims, but instead plays “significant role in the state’s repression of government opponents”. EU 29 Sept said it will send observers to regional and municipal elections set for Nov.

Govt and main opposition alliance held Norway-facilitated talks for first time since 2019, and in major strategic shift opposition announced participation in upcoming elections. In renewed attempt to ease political stalemate, President Maduro’s govt and alliance of main opposition parties 13-15 Aug held Norway-facilitated talks in Mexico for first time since 2019; agreed to continue dialogue with view to “establishing clear rules for political and social coexistence”. To reach potential agreement, Maduro has demanded that U.S. and European sanctions be lifted, while opposition coalition has called for electoral calendar leading to anticipated presidential election, release of imprisoned activists, and humanitarian aid including COVID-19 vaccines for Venezuelans; talks set to resume 3 Sept. Authorities 15 Aug conditionally released Freddy Guevara, close ally of opposition leader Juan Guaidó, a month after he was jailed on terrorism charges following rash of gang violence in capital Caracas; Guevara may join Mexico talks in place of Guaidó’s negotiator Carlos Vecchio, whose presence Maduro objected to given Vecchio’s role as Guaidó’s U.S. representative. Meanwhile, ruling United Socialist Party 8 Aug held primary elections to select candidates for Nov elections for governors and mayors. Opposition figure and former presidential candidate Henrique Capriles 11 Aug confirmed opposition party Justice First’s participation in polls; alliance of main opposition parties 31 Aug announced participation in polls, ending three-year boycott; Guevara same day called for “coexistence” with Maduro. Govt 19 Aug named country’s envoy to China Felix Plasencia as new FM in cabinet shakeup; several other ministers also replaced. Central Bank 5 Aug announced it will slash six zeroes from bolívar currency to facilitate its use amid hyperinflation. Govt telecommunications agency 3 Aug called off air radio show known for being critical of govt. After floods in Merida state (west) killed at least 20, Venezuela’s Bishops Conference 30 Aug accused “some civilian authorities” of preventing part of humanitarian aid from reaching affected population; press workers’ union same day denounced attacks by authorities against journalists covering floods.

President Maduro launched fresh crackdown on opposition in wake of deadly clashes between gangs and govt forces. Security forces 7-11 July launched offensive against organised crime gangs that control parts of capital Caracas; govt 10 July said fighting had left at least 26 dead, including four security officers and several civilians, and 38 injured; Maduro same day accused opposition and neighbouring Colombia of having armed and financed gangs to overthrow or assassinate him. Intelligence service 12 July arrested Freddy Guevara, close ally of mainstream opposition leader Juan Guaidó, on charges of terrorism and treason in relation to 7-11 July violence; Guaidó same day claimed armed security officers tried to detain him at his home in Caracas. Authorities in following days issued arrest warrants against several members of Guaidó’s Voluntad Popular party over accusations of involvement in 7-11 July gang violence and 14 July arrested three family members of one of them, Javier González, prompting party official Emilio Graterón to take refuge in Chilean embassy 17 July. Meanwhile, Maduro 13 July and 24 July said he was willing, under certain conditions, to negotiate with opposition in Aug with view to resolving political crisis. Earlier in month, police 2 July detained NGO Fundaredes Director Javier Tarazona and two other Fundaredes activists in Falcón state (north west), after NGO alleged links between govt officials and armed groups from Colombia; UN human rights chief Michelle Bachelet 5 July condemned “worrying example” of restriction of civil space. Washington 12 July announced minor relaxation of sanctions, allowing Venezuela to import liquid petroleum gas. EU mission 8 July arrived in Caracas to assess conditions to deploy observation mission ahead of Nov regional and local elections. Maduro 4 July gave World Health Organization’s COVAX vaccine-sharing programme “ultimatum” to send doses or return money paid by Venezuela. Following April deal with govt, UN World Food Programme 6 July began distributing meals to schoolchildren. Tensions with Colombia remained high. Bogotá 22 July said Venezuela-based Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia dissidents were behind June assassination attempt on President Duque; Duque 26 July called on EU to declare Maduro’s govt “promoter of terrorism”.

Mainstream opposition participation in upcoming elections increasingly likely; situation at Colombian border remained tense. Main opposition parties, including mainstream opposition leader Juan Guaidó’s Voluntad Popular (VP), reportedly assessing fielding some candidates in regional and local elections scheduled for Nov. VP delegation 21-25 June met with U.S. officials in U.S. capital Washington D.C. to discuss Guaidó’s efforts to establish dialogue with President Maduro; also visited Brussels and Paris 28-29 June. U.S., EU and Canada 25 June jointly said they would review sanctions policies if govt and opposition able to make “meaningful progress” toward transparent elections. Govt 28 June said they would no longer appoint so-called “protectors”, ruling-party supporters who de facto exercise same functions as elected official in opposition-led states. National Electoral Council 29 June said it would allow opposition coalition Democratic Unity Roundtable – which had secured majority in National Assembly in 2015 – to run in next elections. Spanish newspaper El País and Venezuelan website Armando.info 13 June alleged vast international network had allowed Venezuela to escape U.S. oil sanctions. Second international donors’ conference for Venezuela 17 June raised over $1.5mn in grants and loans to help Venezuelan refugees and migrants; donation pledges up by 45% compared to last year. UN High Commissioner for Refugees 19 June said Venezuela is world’s second country most affected by forced displacement with over 5mn displaced. Displaced civilians reportedly started to return home in Apure state at border with Colombia, where armed forces have been fighting against dissident faction of Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) known as 10th Front since March. Defence Minister Gen Padrino López 1 June said eight Venezuelan soldiers who had been abducted in April by 10th Front in Apure had been rescued; independent sources however attributed their return to negotiation. NGO Fundaredes 21 June and others in following days said FARC dissidents 15 June killed six indigenous civilians in Apure. Amid slow and erratic COVID-19 vaccination program, govt 10 June blamed U.S. “blockade” for $10mn shortfall in Venezuela’s payments to World Health Organization’s COVAX vaccine-sharing program; U.S. Treasury 17 June issued new guidance to ease COVID-19-related transactions despite sanctions.

President Maduro made several gestures signalling possible willingness to negotiate with rivals, including appointment of opposition members in new electoral authority. Govt-controlled National Assembly 4 May appointed new National Electoral Council (CNE), with five-person leadership including two opposition members, strongest opposition representation in 15 years – signalling Maduro’s possible openness to further concessions. New CNE divided opposition. Mainstream opposition leader Juan Guaidó same day said new CNE was creature of “illegitimate” National Assembly and would “drag country toward greater disaster”, while former presidential candidate Henrique Capriles, who heads moderate opposition politicians engaged in dialogue with Maduro, 5 May welcomed “essential first step to open the constitutional and democratic reconstruction path”. Guaidó 11 May proposed “National Salvation Accord” including timetable for “free and fair” presidential, parliamentary, regional and municipal elections, release of political prisoners and humanitarian aid access in exchange for progressive lifting of international sanctions and guarantees for current govt officials. Capriles 25 May expressed support for Guaidó’s proposal, which U.S. 11 May and EU 13 May also welcomed. CNE 13 May announced regional and municipal elections for 21 Nov. In response, Guaidó next day said opposition would not “lend itself to a farce”. Meanwhile, chief prosecutor 1 May announced charges against low-ranking govt and military officials in three high-profile political killings for which govt had hitherto denied responsibility; move came day after six imprisoned oil executives, whose freedom is sought by U.S., were released into house arrest. In Apure state near border with Colombia, low-intensity conflict continued between Venezuela’s military and dissident faction of Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) known as 10th Front, with clashes leaving at least seven soldiers injured near La Victoria municipality early May. After 10th Front 15 May released video of eight soldiers reportedly taken prisoners in Apure late April, Defence Minister Gen Padrino López same day confirmed soldiers were in guerrillas’ hands. Jesús Santrich, leader of another FARC dissident faction known as “Segunda Marquetalia”, reportedly killed 17 May in Venezuela.

Deadly clashes between military and Colombian guerrilla groups in border region fuelled tensions between Caracas and Bogotá. Amid ongoing fighting between Venezuelan military and alleged dissidents of Colombian Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) in Apure border state, Defence Minister Vladimir Padrino 5 April reported nine combatants and eight soldiers killed since violence started 21 March; 28 April reported another eight soldiers killed in renewed combat over past few days. FM Jorge Arreaza 6 April said govt was requesting UN assistance in deactivating anti-personnel mines allegedly planted by guerrilla groups on Venezuelan territory; also asked UN to investigate violence. President Maduro and other govt officials repeatedly accused Colombia’s President Duque of supporting armed groups operating along border and seeking “military escalation” between two countries. Duque 13 April decried Maduro’s leadership as “illegitimate”. NGO Human Rights Watch 26 April accused Venezuelan security forces of “egregious abuses against local residents” during operations in Apure state, including extrajudicial killings of at least four civilians – three men and a woman –, torture, arbitrary arrests and prosecution of civilians in military courts. World Food Programme (WFP) and govt 19 April reached deal over WFP’s access to Venezuela, paving way for supply of 185,000 meals for school children by end of year and up to 1.5mn in 2023. Mainstream opposition leader Juan Guaidó 6 April launched broader political front, comprising his existing four-party coalition and six smaller parties; Guaidó said move would improve coordination within mainstream opposition, but some members complained about lack of consultation ahead of launch. Negotiations continued between Maduro’s govt and moderate opposition leaders notably on appointment of more inclusive National Electoral Council (CNE); Guaidó-led coalition however continued to oppose talks, rejecting any CNE not appointed by “legitimate” (2015-2021) National Assembly. Maduro 18 April said govt had paid required amount to World Health Organization to access COVID-19 vaccines under COVAX mechanism. Meanwhile, in parallel move, Guaidó-led National Assembly 22 April approved use of additional $100mn in govt funds – frozen in U.S. accounts as part of sanctions against Maduro’s govt – to purchase COVID-19 vaccines.

Diplomatic efforts resumed to resolve political crisis, and clashes erupted between military and Colombian guerrilla group at border with Colombia. Norwegian delegation 9 March arrived in capital Caracas in attempt to revive comprehensive talks between President Maduro’s govt and mainstream opposition; initiative comes as civil society organisations and opposition faction led by former presidential candidate Henrique Capriles have been trying to negotiate with govt appointment of more inclusive National Electoral Council (CNE) ahead of regional and local elections due by late 2021. Mainstream opposition leader Juan Guaidó 3 March said he would support appointment of new CNE only if its members were not chosen unilaterally by govt-controlled National Assembly. National Assembly 16 March extended deadline for appointing CNE by two weeks, potentially allowing mainstream opposition to put forward candidates; but opposition did not take up opportunity. During visit to Caracas, Spanish deputy FM Cristina Gallach 28-29 March discussed political crisis with govt, opposition and business representatives. Guaidó, recognised by U.S. as Venezuela’s legitimate president, and U.S. Sec State Antony Blinken 2 March discussed “return to democracy in Venezuela through free and fair elections” and “urgent humanitarian needs”. UN Fact-Finding Mission on Venezuela 10 March said police forces committed at least 200 extrajudicial killings in 2021, and UN human rights chief Bachelet next day called for “prompt and independent investigations” into ongoing “extra-judicial executions”. Clashes between military and Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) dissidents 20-21 March erupted in Apure border state, leaving at least two Venezuelan soldiers dead; Colombian govt 28 March said 4,700 had sought refuge in Colombia since fighting started; refugees reportedly accused Venezuelan soldiers of abuses, including killing civilians. U.S. 8 March granted Venezuelan migrants temporary protected status, allowing them to stay and work in U.S. for 18 months. Amid negotiations between govt and mainstream opposition for access to COVID-19 vaccines under World Health Organization’s COVAX mechanism, mainstream opposition 19 March said it would seek to use $30mn in govt funds – frozen in U.S. accounts as part of sanctions against Maduro’s govt – to pay for vaccines. Maduro however reiterated refusal of AstraZeneca vaccine, one of main vaccines under COVAX, citing side effects.

Amid enduring political crisis, civil society created coalition to address tensions and mainstream opposition remained divided over strategy. Large group of civil society organisations, including NGOs, religious bodies, trade unions and country’s main business union Fedecámaras 5 Feb launched platform Foro Cívico Nacional (FNC) in bid to establish counterweight to both govt and opposition, and contribute to solving social and political crisis. FCN’s intention to seek partial, sectoral agreements with govt on economic and humanitarian relief sparked heated debate in opposition circles, with some arguing that approach undermines possibility of full-scale negotiation on “re-institutionalisation”. Mainstream opposition leader Juan Guaidó 3 Feb rejected idea of participating in regional elections due this year, even as some parties that compose mainstream opposition prepared to take part; National Assembly next day set up committee in charge of processing applications for new National Electoral Council, expected to be appointed in early April. In positive step, govt and Guaidó-led opposition, in collaboration with Pan American Health Organization and UN children’s fund (UNICEF), 11 Feb agreed to cooperate to purchase and distribute COVID-19 vaccines for 6mn people; opposition health policy advisers and govt representatives subsequently met to discuss distribution and oversight, and created joint technical team. Following two-week visit to Venezuela, UN special rapporteur on unilateral coercive measures and human rights, Alena Douhan, 12 Feb urged U.S., EU and other states to drop sanctions, citing “dramatic” effects on population. Guaidó-led opposition same day accused Douhan of falling into President Maduro’s “propaganda”, said economic collapse began before imposition of economic sanctions. EU Council 22 Feb imposed sanctions, including travel bans and asset freezes, on 19 high-level officials accused of undermining democracy or violating human rights; in response, govt 24 Feb declared head of EU delegation in Caracas Isabel Brilhante “persona non grata”, giving her 72 hours to leave country. EU next day responded with reciprocal measure. Colombian President Duque 8 Feb granted ten-year protection status to about 1mn undocumented Venezuelan migrants, allowing them to work and to access health and education services.

President Maduro consolidated power with inauguration of new National Assembly. Newly-elected lawmakers – in their vast majority supporters of ruling socialist party – 5 Jan took office and elected Maduro’s key ally Jorge Rodríguez as assembly’s president. Assembly 7 Jan approved creation of special commission for dialogue, peace and national reconciliation, along with another special commission in charge of investigating alleged wrongdoing by 2016-2021 National Assembly headed by Juan Guaidó. Ruling-party legislators late Jan asked attorney general to prohibit Guaidó and 20 other opposition leaders from leaving country. Disagreements over strategy and decision-making continued to plague mainstream opposition. In virtual plenary of 2016-2021 assembly 5 Jan, Democratic Action, largest party in Guaidó’s coalition, opposed creation of Political Council to oversee Delegate Commission, made up of 20 legislators in charge of assembly’s functions; Democratic Action had abstained from approving creation of Delegate Commission in Dec. EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell 6 Jan rejected newly-elected assembly, but stopped short of endorsing opposition’s argument that Guaidó-led assembly remains country’s legitimate parliament; while European Parliament 21 Jan issued resolution calling on EU Council to recognise Guaidó as country’s legitimate interim president, EU member states 25 Jan said Guaidó was part of democratic opposition. Outgoing U.S. administration 19 Jan imposed sanctions on three individuals, 14 entities and six vessels for contributing “to evade U.S. sanctions on Venezuela’s oil sector”; same day deferred for 18 months removal of Venezuelan nationals from U.S. Following U.S. President Biden’s inauguration 20 Jan, Maduro 23 Jan called for “new path” in Venezuela-U.S. relations. Meanwhile, govt stepped up harassment of independent media and NGOs. Notably, pro-govt media and authorities early Jan accused journalists of news website Efecto Cocuyo and others of taking money from UK govt to act as anti-govt “mercenaries”; authorities 12 Jan arrested five employees of HIV-prevention NGO Blue Positive on charges of criminal association and money laundering. Tensions flared up with Guyana over disputed oil-rich maritime territory (see Guyana).

President Maduro secured vast parliamentary majority, regaining control of last branch of power outside his grasp. In 6 Dec legislative elections, ruling coalition won over 90% of 277 seats in National Assembly; electoral authority same day reported turnout of 30.5%. Main opposition parties boycotted polls, saying conditions for free and fair vote were not met. Mainstream opposition leader Juan Guaidó 8 Dec said outgoing opposition-controlled National Assembly would remain only legitimate legislature until free and fair elections are held. In bid to demonstrate retained support from electorate, mainstream opposition 7-12 Dec held “popular consultation”, inviting participants to declare new legislature illegitimate and repudiate Maduro’s “usurpation” of presidency; organising committee 13 Dec said more than 6.4mn voted, but later reduced figure by around 670,000, citing technical difficulties. Guaidó 13 Dec called for nationwide demonstrations on 5 Jan to reject inauguration of new National Assembly. Guaidó-led assembly 26 Dec extended its term – due to expire 4 Jan – for another year and delegated assembly’s functions to small group of legislators, although largest party in Guaido’s coalition, Democratic Action, abstained. Maduro 28 Dec called move “unconstitutional”, and Supreme Court 30 Dec ruled term extension invalid. U.S. Sec State Mike Pompeo 7 Dec said Washington would continue to recognise Guaidó-led assembly as only legitimate legislature; U.S. Treasury 18 Dec issued new round of financial sanctions on several individuals and company for abetting “fraudulent” elections. Office of International Criminal Court’s Prosecutor 14 Dec reiterated there was “reasonable basis” to believe crimes against humanity had been perpetrated in Venezuela since 2017 anti-govt protests, committing to determine in 2021 whether to open full investigation.

Govt pressed ahead with preparations for 6 Dec legislative elections amid opposition’s boycott calls. Campaign for legislative elections started 3 Nov with little popular interest as non-participation of opposition parties grossly limited political options, guaranteeing govt candidates would prevail. Opposition leader Juan Guaidó’s team 13 Nov said “popular consultation” on rejection of 6 Dec vote as sham and approval of opposition’s strategy of “national and international pressure” on President Maduro would take place virtually 7-12 Dec and in person 12 Dec. Following U.S. presidential election 3 Nov, both Maduro and Guaidó 7 Nov congratulated President-elect Joe Biden; Maduro expressed hope of resuming dialogue with U.S., while Guaidó called on Biden to help restore “democracy and freedom” in Venezuela. Biden, who will take office in Jan, vowed during campaign to set aside incumbent President Trump’s hardline approach of isolating Maduro and allies, including implicit threat of possible military intervention, known as “maximum pressure” policy. Court 26 Nov sentenced five U.S. nationals and another individual working for U.S. oil company CITGO – who have been imprisoned in Venezuela for three years – to between ten and 13 years in prison on corruption charges; U.S. Sec State Mike Pompeo next day criticised move and called for immediate release of jailed individuals. International Criminal Court Chief Prosecutor Fatou Bensouda 4 Nov said there was “a reasonable basis” to believe crimes falling under court’s jurisdiction had been committed in Venezuela since 2017 anti-govt protests, requested information on legal proceedings undertaken in Venezuela against alleged perpetrators. Amid COVID-19 pandemic and economic downturn, social unrest persisted over access to basic commodities, notably gas, electricity and drinking water. Hundreds of teachers and health workers 4 Nov protested in capital Caracas to demand better wages and working conditions.

Govt remained on course to hold legislative elections 6 Dec and regain control of National Assembly, as mainstream opposition reiterated boycott strategy. Opposition-led National Assembly 1 Oct approved “consultation” of electorate, to take place around election date, over current strategy of “national and international pressure” on President Maduro’s govt and rejection of any vote held before conditions for free election are in place. Following 30 Sept announcement he would not present candidates for 6 Dec elections, two-time presidential candidate Henrique Capriles, formally a member of mainstream opposition, early Oct said he would continue to pursue electoral solution to political crisis. Govt-controlled National Constituent Assembly 9 Oct approved “Anti-blockade Law” enabling Maduro govt to avoid legal obstacles to international trade and investment and budgetary oversight of ensuing proceeds; legislation ostensibly aimed at circumventing U.S. sanctions. Bogotá-based U.S. Chargé d’Affaires for Venezuela Jimmy Story 15 Oct said Washington would continue to recognise mainstream opposition leader Juan Guaidó as president until free elections were held. Organization of American States 21 Oct passed resolution “affirming its profound concern at and rejection of the maneuvers to secure control by the illegitimate regime of Nicolás Maduro”. Intelligence agency SEBIN 20 Oct raided media outlet Correo del Caroni in eastern Puerto Ordaz city, seized equipment and detained two staff members. Guaidó’s Voluntad Popular party figure and former political prisoner Leopoldo López 23 Oct fled his hideout in Spanish ambassador’s residence and was reunited with his family in Spain’s capital Madrid next day; Venezuelan FM 25 Oct accused Spain of complicity in escape of “dangerous criminal”. Chief prosecutor 27 Oct announced “terrorist financing” charges against Voluntad Popular coordinator Roland Carreno days after he was arrested by security forces. Amid COVID-19 pandemic, Maduro 18 Oct announced reopening of number of govt offices, as well as tourist facilities and other economic sectors, arguing number of cases is steadily decreasing, despite doubts expressed by independent doctors.

Rifts widened within mainstream opposition over whether to contest legislative elections as President Maduro’s govt maintained tight control on electoral framework. Opposition led by Juan Guaidó 7 Sept reiterated decision to boycott 6 Dec legislative elections, with 37 parties signing “unity pact”; some factions, however, proceeded with election preparations; two-time presidential candidate Henrique Capriles registered candidates before 8 Sept deadline, said he might pull out if conditions do not improve. Guaidó 23 Sept called on UN member states to consider application of “responsibility to protect” doctrine to Venezuela, and 27 Sept announced formation of Commandos for Liberty and Free Elections, committees of local activists tasked with mobilising protests and coordinating opposition on the ground. Delays in election preparations and high rates of COVID-19 infection continued to cast doubt upon electoral calendar; independent research by Academy of Sciences 10 Sept predicted over 10,000 virus cases per day in Dec, while electoral authority yet to provide details on new electronic voting system. Head of govt-controlled National Constituent Assembly Diosdado Cabello 6 Sept said body would not draft new constitution before mandate expires in Dec. Series of protests late Sept erupted across country over petrol shortages and breakdown of basic services. International actors also remained divided over electoral process. High-level EU and EU-backed International Contact Group mission to Caracas 23 Sept sought six-month postponement and improvement in election conditions, notably by allowing foreign observers, while U.S. special representative Elliott Abrams 27 Sept criticised move, saying Brussels did not consult Washington on the matter. Organization of American States Sec Gen Luis Almagro 17 Sept called those participating in elections “accomplices of dictatorship”. UN fact-finding mission 16 Sept accused security forces and intelligence agencies of “extrajudicial executions, enforced disappearances, arbitrary detentions and torture” amounting to crimes against humanity since 2014, argued that Maduro and several ministers “were aware of the crimes”, and called for international prosecution of those responsible; govt immediately rejected allegations, claiming mission had been bought off.

Govt continued to press for legislative elections in Dec despite widespread domestic and international concerns over fair conditions and inclusive vote. In statement issued 2 Aug, 26 mainstream opposition parties led by Juan Guaidó confirmed refusal to participate in legislative elections scheduled for 6 Dec, said vote would be rigged and taking part would amount to “collaborating with the dictatorship’s strategy”. Episcopal Conference of Venezuela 11 Aug warned abstention could lead to demobilisation of opposition and called on it to adopt clear strategy. Guaidó 19 Aug called on opposition and civil society leaders to sign up to Unity Pact as pledge of support to existing strategy. Two-time opposition presidential candidate Henrique Capriles, formally a member of mainstream opposition, did not rule out electoral participation; govt twice put back deadline for candidates to register, apparently to accommodate him. VP of electoral authority Rafael Simón Jiménez – linked to minority opposition parties taking part in govt-led National Dialogue – 6 Aug resigned, arguing he was unable to maintain neutral stance; govt immediately replaced Jiménez with senior member of National Dialogue party, breaching law on appointments to body. EU foreign policy chief Borrell 11 Aug said govt had failed to compromise on electoral framework and conditions for “transparent, inclusive, free and fair” election did not exist, pledged to convene ministerial-level meeting of EU-backed International Contact Group to consider next steps. Group of 30 countries including U.S., UK, some small EU states and members of regional body Lima Group 14 Aug issued joint statement calling for “inclusive transitional govt” to lead country into “free and fair presidential elections”. Maduro 17 Aug said govt-controlled National Constituent Assembly (ANC) would close down when its mandate expires in Dec; ANC was created in 2017, supposedly to reform constitution, but has so far failed to deliver on its mandate. Govt 31 Aug pardoned over 110 people including opposition politicians; Guaidó immediately said move was govt ploy to legitimate elections and institutional reform was only route to “reconciliation”. Amid exponential increase in COVID-19 cases, concerns persisted over govt and health system’s capacity to respond to crisis.

President Maduro’s govt continued to tighten control on electoral framework ahead of parliamentary elections scheduled for Dec. Newly appointed electoral authority (CNE) 1 July said parliamentary elections would take place 6 Dec. On occasion of Independence Day 5 July, Defence Minister Padrino López delivered hardline speech describing mainstream opposition led by Juan Guaidó as “bunch of crooks” who will “never exercise power” as long as army remains “anti-imperialist, Bolivarian and revolutionary”. Supreme Court 7 July transferred command of Guaidó’s Voluntad Popular party to ad hoc committee led by José Gregorio Noriega, previously expelled from party over allegations of corruption but recognised by govt as National Assembly VP; decision followed similar moves against two other mainstream opposition parties in June. Opposition continued to reject govt-controlled Supreme Court changes to electoral law announced in June – which resulted notably in increase in number of National Assembly seats from 167 to 277, and in number of MPs elected by party list rather than individually – saying they have no legal basis. In interview with Tal Cual newspaper 13 July, CNE board member Rafael Simón Jiménez admitted CNE, despite being officially independent, executes decisions taken by National Dialogue Roundtable – govt-led dialogue initiative involving minority opposition parties. Following call between EU Foreign Policy Chief Josep Borrell and FM Jorge Arreaza, govt 2 July rescinded its late June decision to expel EU representative from country; expulsion came in response to EU imposition of sanctions on individuals for “undermining democracy and rule of law” following appointment of new CNE earlier in June. Borrell 13 July proposed ministerial-level meeting of EU/Uruguay-led International Contact Group “with all the key players” of Venezuelan political crisis to discuss conditions for Dec elections. Opposition 24 July reiterated that Norway-sponsored govt-opposition talks were over after Norwegian govt representatives said they would visit capital Caracas late July to assess political and humanitarian situation. Amid dramatic increase in COVID-19 cases, concerns persisted over health system capacity, while several high-level officials tested positive for virus.

Political crisis escalated further as President Maduro’s govt took series of steps to strengthen control over electoral framework and silence opposition ahead of parliamentary elections scheduled for Dec. After talks between govt and opposition led by Juan Guaidó over composition of new electoral authority (CNE) broke down early June, govt-controlled Supreme Court 12 June appointed new CNE with absolute majority for Maduro allies and no seat for Guaidó-led opposition; Supreme Court also ordered changes to electoral law expanding seats in National Assembly from 167 to over 200, increasing number of lawmakers elected through party list rather than individually and modifying method for electing legislators representing indigenous communities; opposition leaders including Guaidó immediately rejected ruling, insisted only National Assembly is constitutionally allowed to elect CNE members. In following days, Supreme Court named new leaders, representing dissident factions more lenient toward govt, for two out of four parties that compose mainstream opposition – Acción Democrática 15 June and Primero Justicia 16 June – and 17 June threatened third party Un Nuevo Tiempo with same fate; Supreme Court also reportedly looked to dissolve fourth party, Guaidó’s Voluntad Popular. International actors including EU, U.S., regional body Lima Group and EU/Uruguay-led International Contact Group mid-June condemned recent moves as further deterioration of political crisis. After EU 29 June imposed sanctions on 11 senior officials for “undermining democracy and rule of law”, Maduro same day ordered EU ambassador to leave country within 72 hours. Previously, govt and opposition 2 June said they had reached agreement with Pan American Health Organization to cooperate to raise funds to address COVID-19 pandemic; humanitarian organisations celebrated move as precedent that could allow broader agreements.

Following foiled armed incursion by sea, reportedly attempting to topple President Maduro, authorities detained dozens suspected of involvement and further suppressed opposition. Govt 3 May said it had prevented group of former soldiers planning to capture Maduro from landing at seaside town of Macuto near capital Caracas same day, killing eight and arresting two; within hours, former National Guard Captain Javier Nieto and Jordan Goudreau, ex-U.S. special forces and head of U.S. private security company Silvercorp, claimed responsibility; Goudreau said he had obtained initial contract for operation signed by two members of strategic committee established by opposition leader Juan Guaidó in 2019; opposition leadership next day said meetings with Silvercorp were exploratory and soon dropped. In following days, security forces detained dozens for alleged involvement in plot, including two U.S. nationals; U.S. Sec State Pompeo 6 May denied “direct” U.S. involvement. Authorities late month moved to crack down further on opposition. Attorney general 25 May asked Supreme Court to declare Guaidó’s Voluntad Popular party “terrorist organisation”. Supreme Court 27 May formally recognised MP and President Maduro ally Luis Parra, who pro-govt lawmakers declared head of National Assembly (AN) during Jan session which security forces prevented opposition from attending, as AN chair instead of Guaidó; next day, AN defied ruling and ratified Guaidó as head. Authorities reportedly arrested more than two dozen opposition supporters 18-24 May. Amid COVID-19 crisis, riot 1 May erupted in Llanos prison near Guanare city (west) over ban on outside visits, leaving over 40 prisoners dead. Maduro 12 May announced 30-day extension of countrywide lockdown as widespread protests over petrol, water and food shortages continued. Despite U.S. warning against Iranian assistance and shipments of fuel to Venezuela, first of five Iranian tankers arrived in Venezuelan waters 24 May. In virtual meeting of external actors including U.S. and Russia convened by Sweden 13 May, broad consensus reportedly emerged on need for negotiated solution to political crisis using basis of Norwegian-facilitated opposition-govt talks suspended in Aug 2019, though no formal agreement reached.

Amid COVID-19 crisis, protests and looting erupted over lack of food and fuel, several journalists critical of govt response arrested, and U.S. pressure on President Maduro to force him to leave office continued. Maduro 11 April extended countrywide COVID-19 lockdown for further 30 days. Security forces throughout month reportedly detained several medical personnel and journalists who questioned govt’s claim it had “contained” spread of virus, charging some with “spreading hate”. Notably, press association 18 April reported seven arbitrary arrests of journalists 1-15 April. Isolated protests and lootings erupted in several areas, especially in east, over lack of food and fuel amid COVID-19 pandemic and collapse of oil industry; notably, man was reportedly shot dead 23 April during looting in Upata town. Opposition leader Juan Guaidó 21 April denied media report of secret exploratory talks between his and Maduro’s allies. Lack of clarity persisted over whether parliamentary elections, due this year, could take place in light of COVID-19 crisis; Maduro mid-April said he was unsure if vote would proceed. Despite FM Jorge Arreaza’s 31 March rejection of U.S. offer to lift sanctions in exchange for political transition – whereby Maduro and Guaidó would step aside and executive power be held by “Council of State”, nominated by govt and opposition, until presidential election – govt in subsequent days reportedly showed willingness to consider proposal. Following March indictment of Maduro and others on drugs-related charges, U.S. continued to escalate pressure on govt. U.S. 1 April said that its forthcoming, large-scale anti-drugs operation in southern Caribbean, which will double its naval presence in region, will also serve declared aim of cutting off resources to Maduro govt; govt immediately accused Washington of “slander and threats”. UN Security Council (UNSC) 22 April debated Venezuela at virtual “closed door” session, for first time in a year, at request of Russia, which criticised U.S. policy; UNSC met again 28 April to discuss humanitarian crisis in country.

Amid COVID-19 pandemic, U.S. charged President Maduro and several top aides with drug trafficking, opposition leader Juan Guaidó called for govt of national unity, but excluding Maduro, and Colombia closed its official border crossings with Venezuela. U.S. attorney general 26 March announced indictment of Maduro, Defence Minister Padrino López and others on drugs-related charges in major escalation of U.S. administration’s campaign to pressure Maduro to leave office. Venezuelan chief prosecutor within hours announced investigation into Guaidó in connection with arms shipment seized in Colombia two days earlier. U.S. Sec State Pompeo 31 March offered to lift sanctions in exchange for political transition; FM Jorge Arreaza immediately rejected proposal. Amid concerns over effect of coronavirus epidemic on country’s oil-dependent economy and weakened health care system, Maduro 13 March declared “state of alarm”, allowing him to restrict civil rights; govt subsequently deployed armed forces and militia members to curtail movement and suspended most international flights. International Monetary Fund (IMF) 17 March turned down Maduro’s request for $5bn to deal with COVID-19, citing lack of clarity over recognition of govt. COVID-19 spread limited opposition mobilisation; police 10 March fired tear gas to repel Guaidó’s supporters attempting to march on parliament building from which govt excluded Guaidó-aligned MPs in Jan; opposition later suspended planned demonstrations due to coronavirus. Guaidó 28 March proposed national emergency govt, excluding Maduro but with all political forces represented, to deal with epidemic. Humanitarian situation in Colombia-Venezuela border region remained dire. After Colombia 14 March closed official border crossings amid COVID-19 pandemic, VP Rodriguez described move as “grotesque irresponsibility”, accused Colombian govt of handing border control to “paramilitaries”. Previously unknown group “Venezuelan Patriot Command” claimed 7 March fire at electoral authority (CNE) warehouse in capital Caracas that destroyed voting machines for parliamentary elections due this year; CNE chairperson immediately insisted elections would go ahead; however COVID-19 emergency led to 16 March suspension of govt and opposition efforts to agree on composition of new CNE.

Political standoff continued as opposition leader Juan Guaidó consolidated international standing and govt held military drills, while U.S. launched new sanctions targeting govt. Guaidó 11 Feb returned from foreign tour in which leaders of Colombia, UK, France, Germany, U.S. and EU foreign policy chief received him as head of state; security forces did not arrest Guaidó although he had left country in defiance of travel ban, but anti-Guaidó demonstrators at airport beat and robbed journalists trying to cover his return, authorities arrested Guaidó’s uncle – who was travelling with him – on accusations of bringing explosives into country and 17 Feb suspended operations in country of airline which had carried him home on same accusations. Govt 15-16 Feb held nationwide military exercises involving both army and civilian militia, volunteer reservist force created by former President Chavez and formally incorporated to regular forces in early Feb, with President Maduro claiming involvement of 2.3mn troops, while security forces deployed Russian-built surface-to-air missiles near Caracas international airport and at eastern Caracas air base; Maduro 17 Feb said exercises would continue indefinitely. U.S. 7 Feb announced sanctions against state-run airline Conviasa and 17 Feb against trading arm of Russian state-linked oil company Rosneft, reportedly responsible for 70% of Venezuela’s oil exports and supplying govt with oil products; in response, Maduro 18 Feb declared oil industry emergency and named presidential commission headed by former VP Tareck El Aissami to restructure sector. Authorities late Feb announced they would allow companies to raise capital in foreign currency as Maduro liberalises economy. Despite ongoing disagreement on who presides National Assembly, govt and opposition 26 Feb agreed on composition of parliamentary committee to propose new members of electoral authority.

Political crisis deepened as MP Luis Parra, backed by President Maduro, and opposition leader Juan Guaidó both claimed National Assembly (AN) leadership after Maduro’s govt moved to take back control of opposition-dominated parliament. Ahead of scheduled vote to elect AN president for next twelve months, govt 5 Jan deployed National Guard to prevent opposition MPs from entering parliament building. Maduro’s new ally Parra, expelled from opposition Primero Justicia Party over allegations of corruption in Dec, declared himself AN president same day, but opposition said voting session did not reach quorum of 84 MPs (out of 167). Guaidó 5 Jan convened session away from parliament building, said 100 MPs re-elected him as AN president. Guaidó 8 Jan held session in parliament building after forcing his way past police cordon in standoff with security forces, but abandoned plan to hold new session there after paramilitary groups known as colectivos 15 Jan attacked convoy carrying several opposition MPs to parliament building and assaulted journalists. In defiance of order banning him from leaving country, Guaidó 19 Jan started foreign tour in bid to shore up international backing, meeting with leaders of Colombia, UK, France, Canada, U.S. Sec State Pompeo and EU foreign policy chief Borrell.

Govt mid-Dec launched fresh wave of judicial attacks on opposition MPs ahead of 5 Jan vote to ratify Juan Guaidó as president for next 12 months. Govt-controlled Constituent Assembly 17 Dec lifted parliamentary immunity of four MPs accused, inter alia, of treason. Police special forces (FAES) 20 Dec arrested another, Gilber Caro, without specifying charges. Guaidó 11 Dec admitted failure so far to oust Maduro, promised talks with all sectors of opposition to determine way forward; however opposition deeply divided over whether to participate in 2020 legislative elections. Guaidó and his “govt” tarnished by corruption scandals involving opposition legislators and individuals linked to his team late Nov/early Dec, including online news site exposé of eight opposition legislators allegedly involved in attempts to clear names of corrupt businessmen linked to govt’s food distribution scheme CLAP (Local Committees for Supply and Production); Guaidó ordered investigation. Lawmakers claimed Maduro govt actively seeking to corrupt members of opposition, offering individuals up to $1mn to switch sides. Likelihood of foreign military intervention receded further with passage by U.S. Congress 16 Dec of appropriations bill rejecting use of force in Venezuela and explicitly endorsing strategy of “direct, credible negotiations”; also allocates $400m for humanitarian assistance. Despite partial reactivation of economy, due to informal dollarisation, openings for foreign capital and sanctions-evasion schemes, as well as stabilisation of oil production, severe petrol shortages over Christmas/New Year brought lengthy queues. Maduro 23 Dec accused Colombia, Brazil and Peru of backing 22 Dec raid on 513 Jungle Infantry Batallion in Bolívar state in which dozens of weapons were stolen and (according to govt) one soldier killed. Govt demanded Brazil return 5 military deserters accused of attack who fled across border.

Despite reports of attempts to revive Norway-facilitated negotiations between Maduro regime and opposition led by Juan Guaidó, prospects for resumption of talks remained remote; govt and minority parties involved in National Dialogue initiative continued to insist they offer route to political settlement. Process of releasing political prisoners appeared to have stalled, however month saw progress on formation of parliamentary commission that will consider changing composition of National Electoral Council, key element of deal struck between govt and minority parties. National Assembly 13 Nov approved nine-member committee that, along with yet-to-be-chosen members of civil society, will appoint commission; three members belong to ruling United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV). On international front, resignation and exile of Bolivian President Evo Morales (see Bolivia) following his controversial re-election bid gave encouragement to Venezuelan opposition; interim govt in La Paz immediately recognised Guaidó as interim president, along with El Salvador bringing number of countries who do so to 56. Guaidó called nationwide demonstrations for 16 Nov, however attendance in tens of thousands in Caracas and smaller numbers elsewhere seen as disappointing; thousands of govt supporters also rallied. Amid speculation over foreign policy position of new left-leaning Argentine govt, incoming Argentine FM 29 Nov said that his country would not leave Lima Group, set up in 2017 to address Venezuela’s crisis, and that foreign relations should not be ideological in nature; Argentina also likely to join Mexico-led Montevideo mechanism, which advocates unconditional talks between Venezuelan govt and opposition; however new Uruguayan government under Luis Lacalle seen as likely to leave it.

Govt continued “National Dialogue” with minor opposition parties following Sept collapse of Norwegian-backed talks with main opposition, resuming participation in National Assembly (AN) ahead of elections due 2020, releasing some political prisoners and offering to negotiate changes to electoral authority. However, opposition dismissed initiative, with opposition MPs saying ruling-United Socialist Party of Venezuela and its allies (Patria Para Todos and Communist Party of Venezuela) had made no efforts to promote an agreement in parliament. Political violence continued; body of opposition political activist Edmundo Rada, a member of opposition leader Juan Guaidó’s Voluntad Popular party, found burnt and shot 18 Oct in outskirts of Caracas; Rada had been under police special forces’ surveillance; party leaders said they interpreted murder as political message. UN Human Rights Council 17 Oct controversially elected Venezuelan govt as member despite opponents of its candidacy arguing govt’s human rights record, and refusal to cooperate with Council’s fact-finding mission, made it unfit for membership. Eduardo Stein, joint special representative of UN refugee and migration agencies, said 4.5mn Venezuelans had left country since 2015, stating number could be higher when including those using illegal crossing points.

Govt-opposition talks suspended, while relations with Colombia continued to deteriorate. Following govt’s suspension of Norwegian-mediated talks in Barbados in Aug, opposition led by “interim President” Juan Guaidó 15 Sept announced it was pulling out of dialogue, saying “Barbados mechanism is exhausted”. Opposition next day revealed plan proposed to govt which included President Maduro and Guaidó stepping down from posts while a govt council – including opposition, govt and armed forces representatives – presided over free presidential elections; opposition stated lack of govt response prevented return to negotiations. Govt next day announced it had been talking secretly and separately to group of minor opposition parties, including Avanzada Progresista led by former governor and 2018 presidential candidate Henri Falcón, and had reached initial agreement; agreement would see pro-govt MPs return to parliament, new electoral authority formed and release of some political prisoners. Day after 16 Sept public signing of agreement, govt released National Assembly (AN) VP Edgar Zambrano from military prison; pro-govt MPs returned to AN 24 Sept. Guaidó-led opposition dismissed agreement as “pantomime”, accusing Maduro of negotiating in bad faith; AN 17 Sept passed motion ratifying Guaidó as “interim President” until free elections are held. Relations with Colombia deteriorated over alleged Venezuelan support for Colombian guerrillas, while govt accused Colombia of trying to recruit Venezuelan soldiers to sabotage air defence system, reportedly responding with military drills at border since 10 Sept (see Colombia). Govt accused Guaidó of links to Colombian paramilitaries after photos were published of him 12 Sept with “Rastrojos” gang leaders. Organization of American States Permanent Council 11 Sept agreed to activation of regional defence Rio Treaty, with FMs from eighteen signatory countries 23 Sept meeting in New York; resolution focused on capture/extradition/punishment of regime associates involved in terrorism and/or organised crime. International Contact Group met same day. UN Human Rights Council 27 Sept voted to send “international-fact finding mission” to country to “investigate extrajudicial executions, enforced disappearances” and other human rights abuses since 2014.

Political crisis continued as U.S. announced latest round of sanctions and govt suspended dialogue with opposition. U.S. 5 Aug announced new sanctions against govt, freezing all Venezuelan state assets in U.S. and threatening secondary sanctions against those doing business with President Maduro’s govt; in response, govt accused U.S. of “economic terrorism” and 7 Aug suspended involvement in Norwegian-mediated talks with opposition in Barbados, though did not break off talks completely; U.S. National Security Advisor John Bolton 6 Aug accused Maduro of using negotiations to buy time, saying it was “time for action”. UN Human Rights Chief Bachelet 8 Aug expressed concern that “extremely broad” sanctions fail to contain measures to mitigate impact “on most vulnerable sectors of population”. Numerous media including Associated Press 18 Aug reported that Diosdado Cabello, head of govt-controlled National Constituent Assembly (ANC) had begun talking with U.S. through intermediary; U.S. President Trump and Maduro 20 Aug both confirmed secret Venezuela-U.S. dialogue underway. Govt continued suppression of opposition; ANC 12 Aug lifted parliamentary immunity from four MPs; ANC also appointed special commission to determine whether to bring forward legislative elections due late 2020.

Govt and opposition dialogue resumed while UN human rights chief released report into human rights violations. Govt and opposition delegations 15 July resumed talks in Barbados; Norwegian govt, mediating negotiations, said intention was for talks to be “continuous and expeditious” with delegations due to meet each week for several days to find solution to crisis. President Maduro 19 July said ruling United Socialist Party of Venezuela should prepare for “epic battle” to recover opposition-controlled National Assembly (AN) in as yet unannounced parliamentary elections; opposition leader and “interim President” Juan Guaidó 16 July said “real solution” to crisis was close but three days later said “tough days” lay ahead and there were “no magic solutions”. Amid continued opposition division between those seeking dialogue and hardliners pushing for international military intervention, AN 23 July approved law restoring country’s membership of regional defence Rio Treaty, which some in opposition see as step to requesting foreign military assistance; however, Guaidó insisted treaty was not primarily about military intervention. International support for Norwegian-sponsored talks remained strong with International Contact Group, headed by EU and Uruguay, and UN Sec Gen Guterres reiterating support for talks; U.S. Special Representative for Venezuela Elliot Abrams 12 July expressed hope negotiations would remain confidential so as to be constructive. Contact Group’s Special Representative Enrique Iglesias 9 July held talks in Caracas with both Maduro and Guaidó. UN Human Rights Chief Bachelet 5 July presented report accusing govt of committing “numerous human rights violations” including torture and extrajudicial killings; govt filed over 70 objections to report and said report failed to take into account evidence govt presented. Report called for dissolution of police special forces (FAES) but Maduro 19 July expressed support for FAES. Repression of opposition continued; govt 12 July arrested two of Guaidó’s bodyguards, accusing them of trafficking military weapons. U.S. 21 July said Venezuelan air force “aggressively shadowed” U.S. reconnaissance aircraft in international airspace 19 July, govt claimed plane entered its airspace. Mass power-cut hit most of country 22 July; govt blamed U.S. “electromagnetic attack”.

Political crisis continued amid international efforts to foster govt-opposition dialogue, while opposition remained divided over whether to negotiate with govt and over allegations of corruption. Opposition split between those seeking dialogue and hardliners pushing for opposition leader and “interim President” Juan Guaidó to request international military intervention. Early June allegations that two of Guaidó’s representatives in Colombia embezzled money assigned to cover cost of Venezuelan military deserters heightened tensions within opposition; anti-dialogue faction, backed by Organization of American States Sec Gen Almagro, demanded full investigation, while Guaidó’s chief representative to Colombia, Humberto Calderón, said investigation began two months ago and neared completion. Russian military plane reportedly landed 24 June; Russian embassy 26 June announced its military specialists were leaving country. UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Bachelet 19-21 June visited Venezuela, meeting with govt, opposition and victims of human rights abuses; visit followed lengthy UN negotiations with govt over visit, as well as govt’s release of some political prisoners and consent to possible establishment of a permanent UN human rights office in Caracas. Human rights group Penal Forum and relatives of detainees reported govt 21-23 June detained six members of military and police, including an Air Force general; navy captain Rafael Acosta, one of six arrested, who according to Lima Group showed “visible signs of torture” when brought to military tribunal 28 June, died in custody 29 June, sparking opposition and international outcry. International efforts to find negotiated end to crisis continued; Norwegian govt continued push for resumption of May talks between govt and opposition representatives in Oslo; Sweden hosted preliminary meeting of relevant external actors including Russia, Cuba, Vatican and UN 13 June. Amid continued economic deterioration, UN High Commission for Refugees 7 June released updated figures showing 4mn had fled country. Mass migration continued to cause regional strain; Peru 14 June introduced new immigration rules requiring Venezuelans to obtain visa before arriving at border, leading to large increase in numbers arriving in days before deadline, including 6,000 crossing from Ecuador 13 June.

Political crisis continued as govt cracked down on opposition in wake of failed April uprisings, while divisions in opposition resurfaced over whether to negotiate with govt. Following opposition leader and “interim President” Juan Guaidó’s unsuccessful 30 April appeal to security forces to remove President Maduro, opposition supporters 1 May held further anti-govt demonstrations in Caracas and elsewhere; demonstrators clashed with security forces, with one woman shot dead and dozens injured. Guaidó promised further protests and series of strikes. State security (Sebin) 8 May detained deputy president of opposition controlled-National Assembly. Pro-govt National Constituent Assembly (ANC) revoked parliamentary immunity of at least fourteen MPs; four MPs took refuge in embassies, one fled country and four allegedly went into hiding; govt suppression has led to arrest, flight or refuge in foreign embassies of 15 of opposition’s 112 MPs since 30 April uprising. Maduro 20 May announced plan to bring forward parliamentary (AN) elections, previously due Dec 2020; govt same day extended ANC’s two-year term until 31 Dec 2020. In efforts to open negotiations to end crisis, govt and opposition representations met in Oslo for confidential talks facilitated by Norway mid-May; talks ended 29 May, reportedly without agreement. Some in opposition criticised talks after details were leaked. Guaidó admitted authorising delegation but insisted there would be no negotiations unless Maduro stepped down. International Contact Group, headed by EU and Uruguay, extended its mandate beyond original 90-day deadline during meeting in Costa Rica 6-7 May, and visited Caracas 16-17 May, meeting with Maduro and Guaidó. Effect of U.S. sanctions and economic crisis continued to be felt with severe petrol shortages in much of country mid-May, including in Caracas.

Failed uprising by opposition leadership 30 April led to clashes and further polarised political standoff, increasing fears of violent domestic or international escalation in coming days and weeks amid worsening humanitarian crisis. Opposition leader and “interim President” Juan Guaidó 30 April appealed to security forces to join “final phase” to remove President Maduro, in move govt labelled “attempted coup”. Defecting soldiers and protesters clashed with pro-govt troops around military air base, leaving scores injured; pro- and anti-govt protests took place elsewhere in capital and other cities. Security forces subdued uprising, however Guaidó reiterated calls for mass nationwide demonstrations for 1 May; Maduro promised events would “not go unpunished”, leading to concerns over further outbreaks of violence. Earlier in month, International Federation of the Red Cross 16 April began first shipment of humanitarian aid intended to assist 650,000 Venezuelans, following late March agreement with govt and opposition, who both claimed credit for arrival of aid. UN Emergency Relief Coordinator Mark Lowcock 10 April told UN Security Council 7mn people needed assistance, while some local NGOs say figure is higher; Lowcock also said 1.3mn of total 1.9mn requiring food aid are children under five; further deterioration anticipated as full impact of sanctions hits. Organization of American States 9 April voted 18-9 to recognise representative of Guaidó as ambassador, unseating Maduro’s representative. Guaidó toured west of country 13-16 April, drawing large crowds despite alleged harassment by paramilitaries and authorities. Govt’s attempts to disrupt opposition continued; govt-controlled Constituent Assembly 2 April removed Guaidó’s parliamentary immunity following Supreme Court’s call for it to be lifted on grounds he defied ban on leaving country. Following Feb nationwide electricity blackouts, Information Minister 11 April alleged leading opposition members including Guaidó planned acts of sabotage against electrical grid and banking system. Govt’s international isolation continued with U.S. and Canada imposing additional sanctions against govt figures; U.S. also imposed sanctions on companies and vessels involved in shipment of oil to Cuba, and sanctioned Central Bank.

Govt and opposition maintained hardline stances amid ongoing international efforts to end political crisis, while nationwide electricity blackouts signalled devastating effects of failing to resolve it. Opposition leader and  “interim President” Juan Guaidó, recognised by U.S. and allies, returned to Venezuela 4 March following regional tour, arriving at Caracas airport despite speculation he would be arrested. Police 21 March arrested Guaidó’s chief of staff Roberto Marrero, later charged in connection with alleged “terrorist plot”; U.S. Sec State Pompeo warned of “consequences”, although U.S. officials downplayed likelihood of military intervention. Massive electric grid failure 7 March left around 90% of country without power, with Caracas suffering blackout for two days and other areas for over a week; blackout led to cut-off in water supplies and communications, unknown number of deaths in hospitals as back-generators failed, and outbreaks of looting, particularly in Maracaibo city (north west). President Maduro’s govt blamed sabotage by U.S. and local allies, although experts reportedly blamed fire underneath power lines and faulty maintenance. Widespread and lengthy blackouts returned 25 March, which this time govt blamed on “sniper”, and again 29 March. Two Russian military planes landed 23 March, reportedly carrying military equipment and dozens of troops; Russia cited fulfilment of existing military contracts, but U.S. President Trump 27 March said Russia must “get out”. International Federation of the Red Cross 29 March said it had reached agreement with govt and opposition to begin mass aid relief mid-April. Amid increasing tensions with international actors backing Guaidó, govt 6 March declared German ambassador (who accompanied Guaidó on his return from airport in official vehicle) persona non grata, giving him 48 hours to leave. U.S. 14 March removed last diplomats from Venezuela and closed embassy; FM Arreaza said govt expelled them while Pompeo said their presence had been “constraint” on U.S. policy. International Contact Group, headed by EU and Uruguay, met at ministerial level in Quito, Ecuador 28 March, sent mission to Caracas mid-March primarily to discuss humanitarian assistance; Contact Group has given itself until May to determine whether mediated settlement is possible.

Turmoil continued as govt and opposition hardened their positions and clashes sparked by opposition’s attempted delivery of humanitarian aid prompted fears of further violence. Large quantities of international aid including medical supplies and food, mostly transported by U.S., arrived at Colombian border and opposition leader and regionally supported interim President Juan Guaidó announced 23 Feb as date for first aid shipment into country; govt shut all border points including main planned delivery routes; President Maduro 21 Feb called aid a “provocation” and suggested it was precursor to U.S. military invasion. Army 22 Feb opened fire on indigenous protesters attempting to keep border with Brazil open in Gran Sabana region, killing at least two. Clashes broke out as opposition activists and civilians 23 Feb attempted to bring aid across borders with Colombia and Brazil, with security forces firing teargas and rubber bullets and masked civilian paramilitaries firing live rounds; more people reported killed in Santa Elena de Uairén on Brazilian border, hundreds injured in all; over 400 members of security forces, mostly National Guard, deserted by crossing border near Cúcuta, according to Colombian govt. Armed forces mostly maintained loyalty to Maduro govt during month, although largely refrained from attacking massive opposition demonstrations taking place across country; however, severe repression continued, including police death squads’ reported use of summary executions. International opinion remained divided, with most actors rejecting military intervention. UN Sec-Gen Guterres 22 Feb met with FM Arreaza in New York, urging govt to refrain from using force against protesters, while Guaidó 25 Feb met regional members of Lima Group and U.S. VP Pence in Bogotá to discuss crisis, during which Latin American countries voiced opposition to military intervention; Pence announced further sanctions against members of govt and called on other nations to increase pressure. EU accelerated creation of International Contact Group at meeting in Uruguay 7 Feb, with stated purpose to seek path to free and fair elections under external observation. Guaidó 22 Feb left country clandestinely for Colombia, stating intention to return after visiting Brazil, Europe and U.S.

Country thrown into turmoil as new opposition leader claimed role of acting president, backed by mass anti-govt protests and with support from foreign partners including U.S., setting up confrontation with govt of President Maduro and prompting fears of violent escalation in coming days and weeks. Opposition-controlled National Assembly (NA) 5 Jan elected relative unknown Juan Guaidó of Voluntad Popular party as its new chairman, five days before Maduro was sworn in for second six-year term as president in ceremony boycotted by U.S., EU and many Latin American nations who question legitimacy of his May 2018 re-election. National security police 13 Jan briefly arrested Guaidó, in incident which govt attributed to rogue agents acting in partnership with parts of opposition. Amid growing opposition to Maduro, including dozens of small-scale protests against govt and rising prices in formerly pro-govt areas in Caracas 21 Jan, Guaidó 23 Jan declared himself “interim president”, citing Art. 233 of constitution, in move opposition hardliners and foreign supporters had been demanding. Hundreds of thousands protested across country against govt same day, with over 40 reportedly killed as security forces cracked down over succeeding days. U.S. immediately announced its recognition; Maduro accused U.S. of leading “coup attempt” and announced severing of diplomatic relations, ordering all U.S. diplomatic and consular staff to leave within 72 hours, though later backing down. International community divided with all major countries in the Americas except Mexico officially recognising Guaidó as acting president and many European countries saying they would follow unless free elections were called, but China, Turkey and Russia declaring support for Maduro. European parliament 30 Jan voted to recognise Guaidó as acting interim president. UN Security Council debated Venezuela 26 Jan without passing resolution. EU 31 Jan announced creation of international contact group “to help achieve a peaceful and democratic solution through fresh credible elections”. U.S. 28 Jan imposed sweeping oil sanctions, announcing it would divert any profits from Venezuelan oil sold in U.S. to accounts controlled by Guaidó and transfer control of U.S. refining network to interim govt; over half Venezuela’s oil income comes from U.S. sales.

President Maduro’s planned swearing in for second term 10 Jan, following his disputed May 2018 election, prompted growing domestic and international opposition, with some regional govts including Colombia indicating they may close their embassies or break off relations. Peruvian FM Popolizio 7 Dec said his govt would propose to Lima Group that govts break relations with Venezuela on 10 Jan, although members split on plan; Venezuelan FM Arreaza accused Lima Group govts of corruption and human rights violations. Opposition parties in National Assembly (AN) reportedly agreed during month that Juan Guaidó of Voluntad Popular party would be elected as AN chair 5 Jan in potential consolidation of moderate majority leadership of AN. Two Russian nuclear-capable bombers 10 Dec landed at airport in Maiquetía, Vargas state for “training exercise”; defence minister Gen Vladimir Padrino López commented the two countries were “preparing to defend Venezuela”; official Russian news agency TASS indicated visit was intended to send message to U.S., which criticised visit. Maduro 17 Dec said civil militia had grown to 1.6mn members and its mission was to defend country against external aggression.

Amid ongoing economic and social crisis and international isolation further reports emerged of splits in both govt and opposition, with reported divisions between govt factions over new constitution supposedly being drafted by National Constituent Assembly (ANC). ANC head Diosado Cabello, who is seen as rival to President Maduro, 12 Nov said there was still no draft, while some factions say only minor reform needed; followed Maduro’s late-Oct dismissal of head of intelligence service and Cabello ally Gen. González López. Opposition remained hampered by internal disputes. Opposition-controlled National Assembly 6 Nov approved motion of censure against former Spanish PM Zapatero for his efforts to mediate talks between govt and opposition, however almost half MPs opposed motion, arguing it would damage relations with Spain; hardline opposition branded them “traitors” and “collaborationists”, prompting criticism from former opposition presidential candidate Henrique Capriles. But majority of National Assembly members 13 Nov approved resolution favouring negotiated solution, and signs emerged that handover of Assembly presidency 5 Jan from one party to another may proceed as agreed. Frente Amplio opposition front held successful congress 26 Nov in another sign of possible restoration of partial opposition unity. However, 27 Nov sentencing in U.S. of former state treasurer Alejandro Andrade for corruption brought spate of allegations from opposition hardliners that their moderate rivals had received part of Andrade’s spoils. Colombia’s second guerrilla group National Liberation Army (ELN) attacked  National Guard in Puerto Ayacucho on Colombia-Venezuela border 4 Nov, killing at least three; opposition accuses govt of forging alliance with ELN to control illegal mining. Humanitarian and economic crisis continued; UN 8 Nov updated its previous Oct assessment of Venezuelans who had left country since 2015 from 1.9mn to 3mn, while International Monetary Fund estimated inflation rate of 1.2mn% by end of 2018. U.S. 1 Nov announced new sanctions including ban on U.S. citizens trading Venezuelan gold.

Amid deepening economic and social crisis, ongoing intransigence by President Maduro’s govt and opposition leadership vacuum, EU foreign ministers 15 Oct discussed initiative by Spain, Portugal and Italy to seek negotiated solution to crisis; Spain denied any intention to ease international pressure on Maduro. After meeting, EU foreign policy chief Mogherini said sanctions would be maintained and conditions were not right for dialogue or mediation; EU will instead examine establishing “contact group” to explore possibility of negotiated settlement. Govt 8 Oct announced death “by suicide” of Caracas city councillor and political prisoner Fernando Albán, who had been held at national security police headquarters since returning from UN General Assembly 5 Oct; official explanation of his death widely questioned, with opposition claiming death was result of torture; foreign govts and international bodies called for independent investigation into Albán’s death. Govt had accused Albán of working with exiled opposition leader Julio Borges – whom Albán met at UN – in planning Aug drone attack on President Maduro. UN refugee agency 1 Oct announced 1.9mn Venezuelans had left country since 2015. Chair of U.S. Senate foreign relations committee Bob Corker 8-10 Oct visited Caracas in ‘private initiative’ to hold talks with Maduro and some opposition figures. Colombia’s second guerrilla group National Liberation Army suspected of carrying out mass killing of at least sixteen people in Bolívar state 18 Oct (see Colombia). Russian deputy finance minister 30 Oct met with govt officials in Caracas to discuss economic reforms to tackle financial crisis.

Amid acute regional concern over political impasse and humanitarian situation inside Venezuala, President Maduro 13-16 Sept visited China in search of fresh loans to relieve govt’s financial crisis, but reportedly failed to secure them. Among agreements signed, Maduro ceded further 9.9% share in joint Sinovensa oil project, and signed up for “active participation” in construction of China’s Belt and Road initiative; new Chinese assistance will come in form of investments in oil, gas and gold, rather than loans to govt. Venezuela already owes China $20bn and has had to ask for repayment terms to be relaxed. Official Chinese statements expressed confidence in Maduro’s Aug economic reforms, but hyperinflation reported at around 220% per month. Economic crisis left shops struggling to stock basic goods; producers face spiralling costs, increased crime, power cuts and govt-backed land seizures, particularly in border regions. With Venezuelans continuing to flee country, eleven regional govts 3-4 Sept met in Ecuadoran capital Quito to discuss crisis, stressing need for regional solution and agreeing to accept expired Venezuelan passports as valid; Venezuelan govt declined to attend meeting and continued to deny existence of mass exodus, saying it is helping repatriate many “repentant” migrants. Political impasse and worsening humanitarian crisis fuelled talk of possible internationally-led or -backed military intervention. Speaking at Colombian-Venezuelan border, Organization of American States (OAS) Sec Gen Almagro 14 Sept said no option should be excluded, later clarifying he meant humanitarian intervention; ten members of Lima Group of govts issued statement rejecting use of force, but U.S. President Trump speaking at UN General Assembly 26 Sept reiterated that all options were open; also said would be willing to meet Maduro, but although Maduro flew to New York no meeting took place. In unprecedented move, six regional countries 26 Sept called on International Criminal Court to investigate Maduro govt for crimes against humanity. UN Human Rights Council next day passed resolution deploring situation in Venezuela, calling on govt to allow in humanitarian assistance and on UN human rights chief to investigate and report.

Apparent attempt to assassinate President Maduro shook country, while govt’s new economic reform package widely expected to worsen economic and humanitarian crisis and intensify exodus of Venezuelans to neighbouring countries. Two drones carrying explosives blew up –  one within 50 metres of Maduro –  4 Aug during military parade in Caracas; govt said seven soldiers injured; group calling themselves “Soldados de Franelas” claimed responsibility on social media without giving evidence. Maduro claimed outgoing Colombian President Santos was responsible; Santos dismissed as “ridiculous”. Security forces 7 Aug arrested opposition MP Juan Requesens, with govt claiming he helped leader of attack under orders from exiled opposition leader Julio Borges; Requesens’ family and colleagues alleged he was drugged to force televised confession. Govt charged Requesens with crimes including attempted assassination and treason, which he denied in court, and 8 Aug issued warrant for arrest of Borges, who denies involvement. Govt 20 Aug implemented delayed currency reform, cutting five zeroes off bolívar to create new “sovereign bolívar”; three days earlier, Maduro announced “magical” economic package, involving pegging new currency to Petro “crypto-currency” backed by oil reserves (representing an effective devaluation of 95%), and 35-fold increase in minimum wage, initially to be partly subsidised by govt; generated widespread concerns that measures will accelerate hyper-inflation crisis and cripple businesses. Several opposition parties 21 Aug held nationwide “general strike”, but response patchy. So-called “Supreme Court in exile” 15 Aug found Maduro guilty of corruption, sentenced him to jail term; National Assembly 21 Aug ratified sentence, calling on security forces to arrest him, in apparent manoeuvre by parts of opposition, principally in exile, to name alternative govt and seek military intervention. Venezuelans continued to flee country causing backlash in neighbouring countries; Peru and Ecuador announced entry restrictions while incident in Brazil 18 Aug saw residents in border town Pacaraima attack Venezuelans, prompting 1,200 to flee back across border. UN 24 Aug warned of exodus from Venezuela heading to “crisis moment” for region.

Govt benefited from splintering of domestic opposition and signs of easing international pressure, however, congress of ruling United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV) late July also revealed dissent in govt ranks, including over policy of currency exchange controls. Opposition Democratic Unity (MUD) alliance 5 July suffered major split with departure of one of its biggest members, Acción Democrática (AD); AD leader Henry Ramos Allup blamed MUD’s inability to appoint new leadership or fulfil existing agreements. Former opposition presidential candidates Henrique Capriles, Henri Falcón and Manuel Rosales met with Ramos Allup 19 July to discuss how to reunify opposition, but other opposition leaders rejected idea of “revival of the MUD”. So-called “Supreme Court in exile” (in Panama) 5 July ruled Maduro must be replaced by interim president elected by opposition-led National Assembly. Pro-govt National Constituent Assembly 16 July confirmed plans to hold recall referendums against 30 opposition legislators. Electoral authority 12 July announced delayed local council elections to take place 9 Dec; opposition divided over whether to take part. Switzerland 10 July announced fresh sanctions against eleven officials including VP Rodríguez, and Lima Group 17 July reiterated call for restoration of democracy and expressed “deep concern” over reports govt has moved combat aircraft and other weapons to Colombian border. Colombian President-elect Duque said he would not appoint ambassador to Caracas. New govts of Spain and Mexico signalled softer stances on Maduro govt; Spanish FM Borell 16 July met Venezuelan counterpart and signalled Spain no longer so keen on sanctions; Mexican President-elect López Obrador 5 July said his govt would restore policy of “non-interference” in other countries’ affairs. International Monetary Fund 23 July warned inflation could reach a million % by end 2018; Maduro 25 July postponed introduction of new banknotes for second time to 20 Aug, announced five zeroes (instead of three) would be eliminated; also indicated gasoline rationing could be imminent. Miami newspaper El Nuevo Herald 27 July claimed Maduro under investigation in U.S. over massive money-laundering scheme involving Venezuelan state oil company.

Fallout from 20 May election continued as opposition and foreign govts maintained refusal to recognise President Maduro’s victory. Supreme Court (SC) 13 June refused to admit losing candidate Henri Falcón’s claim that election should be nullified because of multiple irregularities including vote-buying, saying Falcón offered no proof. Organization of American States (OAS) General Assembly 5 June passed resolution stating election failed to comply with international standards and lacked legitimacy; called for negotiations leading to a free and fair election, and for member states to take political, economic and financial measures to assist in restoration of democracy in Venezuela; although supported by nineteen countries, resolution fell short of 24 votes needed to suspend Venezuela’s membership. EU 25 June imposed sanctions on eleven govt officials, including members of electoral authority. UN high commissioner for human rights 22 June accused security forces in Operation for the Liberation of the People, ostensibly a series of crime-reduction operations, of over 500 extrajudicial killings July 2015-March 2017. Govt conditionally released several dozen political prisoners, from various groups, beginning 2 June; however hundreds remained in jail. Dozens are military officers, some convicted of involvement in May 2018 coup plot which, according to a report by Bloomberg, was foiled. President Maduro 14 June announced cabinet changes including replacement of VP El Aissami with Delcy Rodríguez, previously head of controversial pro-Maduro National Constituent Assembly (ANC); Maduro moved El Aissami to head new Ministry of Industries and National Production, Diosdado Cabello was chosen to head ANC. Reshuffle also significantly reduced number of military members of cabinet. Amid ongoing hyperinflation crisis, ANC appointed Calixto Ortega Sánchez as president of Central Bank, despite his lack of prior experience in role. Opposition remained divided; Falcón 30 May announced creation of “new opposition platform” Concertación para el Cambio, based around parties that supported his candidacy.

Presidential elections took place 20 May, despite domestic and international pressure to postpone; electoral authorities declared incumbent President Maduro winner with 67% of vote, on 46% turnout – much higher than most independent estimates. Opposition candidate Henri Falcón of Avanzada Progresista party officially won 21.1%; evangelical Pastor Javier Bertucci 10%. Falcón declared he would not recognise result. Earlier, his campaign manager 16 May filed Supreme Court injunction to stop alleged govt illegal “vote-buying”; during campaign Maduro offered Bs10mn to those who voted; electoral authority subsequently prohibited fulfilment of promise. Ahead of poll, Opposition Democratic Unity (MUD) alliance intensified call for boycotts and campaigned against Falcón standing. Ad hoc Lima Group of govts 14 May met in Mexico City, issuing “final call” to postpone elections. Following announcement of results, Lima Group announced recall of remaining ambassadors from Caracas in protest at results. U.S. 21 May announced new economic sanctions; Caracas 22 May responded by expelling two U.S. diplomats, accusing them of “conspiracy”. U.S. 7 May had already announced sanctions on three individuals and twenty companies with ties to Maduro. Council of the EU 28 May announced fresh sanctions without specifying them. Organization of American States 29 May said it will present evidence to International Criminal Court that Maduro govt has committed crimes against humanity in response to report by panel of independent international experts alleging extrajudicial killings and torture of political prisoners. Prospect of shutdown in oil production loomed after international arbitration court late April awarded ConocoPhillips $2,040mn in long-running legal battle with Venezuela over rescinding of its contracts by President Chávez in 2007, prompting Conoco to seize Venezuelan oil refining and storage assets in Dutch Antilles and state-owned oil company PDVSA to withdraw its tanker fleet to Venezuelan waters.

Govt pressed on with planned presidential election 20 May despite international and internal pressure to postpone and improve conditions for opposition, which remains deeply split. Opposition Democratic Unity (MUD) alliance continued to call for election boycott, refusing to back sole opposition candidate Henri Falcón of Avanzada Progresista party. MUD and radical opposition wing Soy Venezuela 17 April briefly united around vote in opposition-led National Assembly calling for President Maduro to be tried for corruption (as proposed by exiled dissident Supreme Court judges), with 105 out of 167 legislators voting in favour of resolution, only four opposition legislators abstaining; only two legislators of ruling United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV) present. Maduro 10 April announced he would not attend Summit of the Americas in Peruvian capital Lima 13 April, calling it a “waste of time”, after previously insisting he would attend despite Peruvian govt rescinding his invitation. U.S. VP Pence, attending summit in place of U.S. President Trump, called Venezuela “failed state”, said U.S. would not stand by while it collapsed. Ad hoc Lima Group of govts issued fresh communiqué reiterating calls for free and fair elections and assistance in tackling humanitarian emergency. U.S. Treasury Sec Steven Mnuchin 19 April hosted meeting of officials from sixteen European and Latin American countries who agreed to strengthen efforts to seize Venezuelan assets acquired corruptly. Govt 5 April suspended Panamanian airline Copa’s flights for three months in response to Panama’s introduction late March of sanctions banning Panamanian firms’ business with 50 Venezuelan officials including Maduro. Measure prompted Panamanian decision to suspend Venezuelan airlines from Caracas-Panama route as well; presidents 26 April agreed to restore normal aviation traffic and set up joint commission under their foreign ministers to review bilateral relations. Maduro 12 April handed Oil Minister Manuel Quevedo powers to reform energy sector, despite reported Russian and Chinese pressure to sack him.

Electoral commission 1 March announced that 22 April election would be postponed to 20 May. Announcement followed negotiations between govt and minor parties that agreed to take part in vote, which resulted in agreement ostensibly to guarantee better conditions, including through presence of international observers, notably from UN; opposition Democratic Unity (MUD) alliance 5 March asked UN to refrain from participating in “fraudulent” elections. Polls indicate Henri Falcón from Avanzada Progresista, who split with MUD to launch candidacy, could beat Maduro if turnout is above 50%; but also suggest most opposition supporters will boycott elections. Govt moved against perceived opponents in armed forces, both active and retired, detaining nineteen including former interior minister Miguel Rodríguez, arrested by intelligence agency 13 March; another two dozen retired officers either stripped of their ranks or expelled from armed forces. Govt’s international isolation continued to deepen. Peru 19 March reiterated its refusal to invite Maduro to mid-April Summit of the Americas in Lima despite Bolivia and Nicaragua’s calls to reconsider. U.S. 19 March extended sanctions program on four additional officials and banned all dealings in Venezuelan govt’s new “petro” cryptocurrency, which is seen as a vehicle for obtaining fresh loans and evading financial sanctions. Ten countries at G20 finance ministers’ meeting 19 March agreed to ask International Monetary Fund for funds to help Venezuelan migrants and looked into possible forms of pressure on Maduro govt. Radical opposition wing Soy Venezuela 12 March called for “humanitarian intervention by democratic countries of the world and international organisations”.

Formal talks between govt and opposition in Dominican Republic broke down 7 Feb, following govt’s unilateral announcement in Jan that it would hold early presidential elections in April, and after Mexico and Chile pulled out of their facilitation roles. Electoral Commission 7 Feb announced election date of 22 April. Opposition remains split over whether to participate. Opposition Democratic Unity (MUD) alliance 21 Feb announced it would not take part and demanded govt postpone elections until second half of 2018, as well as guarantee independent international electoral observers, vote for Venezuelans abroad, equal access to media, and lifting of ban on opposition parties and candidates. However, leader of Avanzada Progresista party Henri Falcon 16 Feb announced intention to stand. Lima Group of fourteen nations formed to press for restoration of democracy in Venezuela expressed “firm rejection” of election plan 13 Feb, saying poll would “lack legitimacy and credibility”. Peru 13 Feb withdrew President Maduro’s invitation to Summit of Americas in Lima 13-14 April; govt said Maduro will attend summit regardless. During regional tour, U.S. Secretary State Rex Tillerson 4 Feb proposed oil embargo against Venezuela, however most regional govts have reservations. Tillerson also said U.S. and Canada working on ways of providing alternative energy sources to the Caribbean to reduce dependence on Venezuela. Colombia and Brazil 8 Feb both announced fresh measures to cope with mass influx of Venezuelans into their countries.

Govt 23 Jan announced elections “before 30 April”, causing crisis in talks with opposition in Dominican Republic. Mexico immediately withdrew from mediation of talks, saying govt move demonstrated lack of seriousness. Govt said it was response to EU’s 22 Jan announcement of new sanctions on seven govt officials, including travel ban and asset freeze. Opposition split over whether to take part in elections and whether to resume talks, as proposed by govt. Supreme Court 26 Jan instructed electoral authority to cancel registration of opposition Democratic Unity (MUD) alliance, preventing it from standing in elections. Two other major parties required to gather signatures to re-register. Voluntad Popular party of Leopoldo López refused and is no longer registered. Govt-opposition talks resumed 29 Jan, without Voluntad Popular’s participation. Protests over food and looting continued, particularly in Calabozo, Guárico state (north), where military helicopters deployed after National Guard failed to contain looting 13 Jan; around 250 arrested. Govt 6 Jan ordered supermarkets to bring prices down to Nov level; lower prices led to panic-buying and empty shelves as shops refused to restock. Rash of hijacking of food trucks caused further disruption to food and other supplies, including in parts of north and north west. National Guard and armed civilians 15 Jan killed rebel police helicopter pilot Oscar Pérez and six others in El Junquito, near Caracas; Pérez, wanted since June, most recently led raid against National Guard installation 19 Dec stealing dozens of firearms.

Govt won 308 of 335 mayoral posts at stake in municipal elections 10 Dec; most main parties boycotted vote. Electoral authority (CNE) claimed 47% turnout, opposition and many independent analysts said it was much lower. Non-accredited election observers reported widespread evidence of coercion, vote-buying, violation of voting secrecy and electoral propaganda in vicinity of polling stations. Govt used so-called carnet de la patria (homeland identity card), which links access to state benefits with loyalty to ruling party, to reward voters who presented their cards to party representatives after voting. Talks held between govt and opposition representatives in Dominican Republic 1-2 Dec and 15 Dec, in presence of foreign guarantor countries; the two sides agreed to meet again 12 Jan. 44 political prisoners released 23-24 Dec, reportedly as result of agreement reached at talks, although officially 80 were to be released. Part of opposition continues to demand dissolution of unconstitutional National Constituent Assembly before talks are held. Dozens of managers of Citgo, U.S. refining arm of state oil corporation PDVSA, and of PDVSA itself, arrested starting late Nov in what govt described as anti-corruption drive; prominent detainees include former Energy Minister Eulogio del Pino and former PDVSA chairman Nelson Martínez. Ambassador to UN Rafael Ramírez, formerly leading regime figure who was oil minister and PDVSA chair under late President Chávez, forced to resign as UN ambassador 4 Dec but escorted into exile, from where he denied charges and issued series of statements blaming Maduro for crisis. Many independent observers regard purge as bid by President Maduro to eliminate potential rival in Ramírez.

With economic collapse looming, President Maduro 2 Nov announced plan to restructure and refinance foreign debt, and created special commission to negotiate with bondholders; commission headed by VP Tareck el Aissami, who is on U.S. sanctions list due to alleged involvement in drug trafficking. Ratings agency Standard & Poor’s 13 Nov said govt was in “selective default” after it failed to issue $200mn in repayments for global bonds due Oct; govt same day met with bondholders, insisted it will continue to repay debt and negotiate for bond restructuring. Russia 15 Nov rescheduled over $3bn in bilateral debt. On political front, opposition Democratic Unity alliance (MUD) 31 Oct announced it would refuse to take part in long-delayed 10 Dec municipal elections. MUD 9 Nov announced new round of talks with govt scheduled 1-2 Dec 2018 in Dominican Republic to obtain guarantees for 2018 presidential election, prompting formal split of opposition camp into pro-dialogue MUD, largest group in parliament, and anti-dialogue Soy Venezuela group. Foreign ministers of all guarantor countries apart from Paraguay (Chile, Mexico, Nicaragua, Bolivia, and St. Vincent) expected to attend. Former Caracas Mayor Antonio Ledezma, leading member of anti-dialogue Soy Venezuela faction, 17 Nov escaped house arrest, travelled to Spain and met with Spanish PM Rajoy; 23 Nov announced global campaign for Venezuelan democracy.

Month dominated by long-postponed elections for state governors 15 Oct, which under constitution should have been held Dec 2016. Govt continued to insist that participation as candidates in state governor elections amounted to recognising Constituent Assembly (ANC)’s legitimacy and authority to swear in elected candidates; opposition Democratic Unity alliance (MUD) rejected terms but persisted with taking part in elections, amid predictions that its candidates could win in as many as eighteen out of 23 states, compared with three seats held before election. Electoral authority (CNE) 15 Oct announced landslide victory for govt candidates: eighteen states, including key opposition stronghold Miranda, went to govt, five won by opposition (including four by Acción Democrática (AD)). MUD rejected results, called for complete nationwide audit of election process with independent, international verification. U.S., Canada, EU and twelve-country Lima Group formed to press for restoration of democracy echoed calls; govt said it would only publish vote tallies. During campaign, govt hampered opposition efforts to mobilise supporters and ensure effective vote by keeping names of MUD candidates who pulled out after losing in primaries on ballot to confuse voters, and reassigned over 700,000 voters from opposition strongholds to alternative polling stations. In south-eastern Bolívar state, announcement of results was delayed amid three consecutive days of street protests; after authorities declared govt candidate winner, MUD produced paper vote tallies contradicting official count. AD governors agreed to be sworn in before ANC, whereupon party leader Henry Ramos said they had “excluded themselves” from party. Juan Pablo Guanipa of Primero Justicia, winner in Zulia state, refused; govt called fresh election in Zulia. MUD’s participation in elections, and governors’ swearing-in, fomented further division within opposition ranks, as vocal minority accused MUD leadership of treachery. Govt called delayed municipal elections for Dec, provoking opposition debate over whether to take part.

President of opposition-led National Assembly (AN) Julio Borges, visiting Europe early Sept, met with French, German, Spanish and UK leaders, all of whom expressed their support and condemned undemocratic behaviour by President Maduro’s govt. VP Jorge Arreaza also visited Europe 11-13 Sept, spoke at UN Human Rights Council in Geneva and met with French and Spanish foreign ministers: defended govt’s rights record and dismissed UN human rights chief Zeid Ra‘ad al Hussein’s statement that crimes against humanity may have been committed in Venezuela. Reports of new govt-opposition dialogue in Dominican Republic, previously confidential, brought further recriminations within opposition Democratic Unity alliance (MUD). Govt demands in talks included AN approval for issuance of fresh international debt and recognition of Constituent Assembly; MUD demands included restoration of AN powers, electoral calendar, “humanitarian corridor”, replacement of govt supporters on Supreme Court and electoral authority (CNE), and commitment not to ban opposition candidates in gubernatorial elections. Sides agreed to formation of group of six guarantor countries, but agreement to re-convene 27 Sept suspended after MUD said conditions not met. MUD 10 Sept held primaries in nineteen of 23 states to determine opposition candidates in 15 Oct gubernatorial elections, amid signs its internal unity is fraying. Acción Democrática won in ten states, giving it twelve candidacies; several contests, including in Zulia and Aragua states, ended with disputes over result. Govt’s international isolation continues to deepen, with EU actively considering individual sanctions on its leaders, and Canada imposing sanctions on senior govt figures; U.S. imposed travel ban on Venezuelan govt officials and their families, citing govt’s lack of cooperation on vetting security threats posed by its citizens. Organization of American States Secretary General Luis Almagro organised hearings on Venezuela’s rights situation in Washington DC beginning 14 Sept and issued fourth report on Venezuela.

National Assembly (AN) 18 Aug refused to subordinate itself to newly-installed Constituent Assembly (ANC), which decreed that it had consequently assumed all powers of AN, effectively dissolving legislature. Govt 16 Aug installed ANC’s so-called Truth Commission, tasked inter alia with investigating opposition leaders for alleged participation in anti-govt violence. ANC member Diosdado Cabello said any opposition candidate for elected office would first have to obtain “good conduct” certificate from ANC; ANC 30 Aug voted to try opposition leaders for treason. ANC 5 Aug moved to dismiss attorney general Luisa Ortega Díaz and replace her with govt loyalist Tarek W. Saab. Intelligence service 16 Aug raided Ortega’s home and authorities issued warrant for arrest of her husband; couple fled to Colombia, Ortega later said she had evidence Maduro and other govt leaders involved in corruption. Opposition split over whether to participate in delayed Dec 2017 elections for state governor: over 30 opposition politicians announced candidacy; Vente Venezuela party leader María Corina Machado withdrew from opposition Democratic Unity alliance (MUD) over issue, saying to participate was to legitimise dictatorship. Electoral authority 12 Aug brought forward election date to Oct. Armed group led by former soldiers 6 Aug briefly took over barracks in major military base in Valencia, west of Caracas: three people killed. Attack coincided with social media publication of video showing former National Guard officer Juan Carlos Caguaripano with armed soldiers announcing rebellion against Maduro’s “murderous tyranny”; Caguaripano and another leader captured by police 11 Aug, intelligence chief said eighteen people in custody. Seventeen regional foreign ministers and representatives discussed crisis 8 Aug in Lima, Peru: twelve later signed declaration condemning “breakdown of the democratic order”, said they would not recognise ANC actions. U.S. did not take part; President Trump 11 Aug told reporters he did not rule out “military option” to restore democracy; Lima group and many regional govts rejected idea. U.S. 25 Aug introduced new sanctions restricting access for Venezuelan govt and state oil company to U.S. debt markets; said no plans to take military action “in near future”.