Hostilities intensified most notably in Syria after Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) ended four-month unilateral ceasefire, raising spectre of further escalation.

Attacks rose between Türkiye and PKK and its affiliates. PKK 10 June terminated unilateral ceasefire announced in Feb following devastating earthquakes, citing ongoing Turkish operations against group’s members in northern Syria and northern Iraq. Following termination, rate of violence increased, particularly in northern Syria, with risks of further escalation looming (see Syria and Iraq). Notably, PKK-linked People’s Defence Units (YPG) 12 June allegedly launched cross-border rocket attacks into Türkiye’s Kilis province from Syria; in response, Turkish forces next day struck YPG positions. Amid attacks on Turkish bases in Syria, Turkish forces 14 June struck Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and Syrian regime positions in Tel Rifaat and Manbij areas, killing at least eight Syrian soldiers, over dozen SDF/YPG fighters and several civilians. In northern Iraq, PKK blamed Türkiye for killing of PKK member in Sulaymaniyah 9 June; IED explosion 12 June killed two Turkish soldiers in northern Iraq.

Security forces continued crackdown on Islamic State (ISIS). Turkish security forces during June detained at least 90 individuals with alleged links to ISIS. Notably, security forces in Istanbul 10 June detained former Mosul “judge” of group, and 23 June arrested foreign national allegedly plotting attack on Turkish soil.

Ties with Greece remained on even keel. Greek PM Kyriakos Mitsotakis 7 June said he will work to settle outstanding disputes, including Aegean maritime zones, with President Erdoğan; Mitsotakis 13 June clarified discussion on demilitarised status of eastern Aegean islands was out of question. Defence Minister Yaşar Güler 15 June met Greek counterpart on sidelines of North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) conference; Erdogan and Mitsotakis will meet on the sidelines of NATO summit in July. After boat carrying migrants 14 June capsized near Greek island Morea, killing at least 79 with hundreds missing, Ankara 16 June called for “fair burden sharing” in refugee problem.

In other important developments. Armenian PM Nikol Pashinyan 3 June attended Erdoğan’s inauguration ceremony in capital Ankara. Erdoğan 15 June called for new “civilian constitution”. Sweden and Ankara held talks on former’s NATO membership bid; Sweden 1 June formally promulgated revised terrorism laws.

Hostilities intensified most notably in Syria after Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) ended four-month unilateral ceasefire, raising spectre of further escalation.

Attacks rose between Türkiye and PKK and its affiliates. PKK 10 June terminated unilateral ceasefire announced in Feb following devastating earthquakes, citing ongoing Turkish operations against group’s members in northern Syria and northern Iraq. Following termination, rate of violence increased, particularly in northern Syria, with risks of further escalation looming (see Syria and Iraq). Notably, PKK-linked People’s Defence Units (YPG) 12 June allegedly launched cross-border rocket attacks into Türkiye’s Kilis province from Syria; in response, Turkish forces next day struck YPG positions. Amid attacks on Turkish bases in Syria, Turkish forces 14 June struck Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and Syrian regime positions in Tel Rifaat and Manbij areas, killing at least eight Syrian soldiers, over dozen SDF/YPG fighters and several civilians. In northern Iraq, PKK blamed Türkiye for killing of PKK member in Sulaymaniyah 9 June; IED explosion 12 June killed two Turkish soldiers in northern Iraq.

Security forces continued crackdown on Islamic State (ISIS). Turkish security forces during June detained at least 90 individuals with alleged links to ISIS. Notably, security forces in Istanbul 10 June detained former Mosul “judge” of group, and 23 June arrested foreign national allegedly plotting attack on Turkish soil.

Ties with Greece remained on even keel. Greek PM Kyriakos Mitsotakis 7 June said he will work to settle outstanding disputes, including Aegean maritime zones, with President Erdoğan; Mitsotakis 13 June clarified discussion on demilitarised status of eastern Aegean islands was out of question. Defence Minister Yaşar Güler 15 June met Greek counterpart on sidelines of North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) conference; Erdogan and Mitsotakis will meet on the sidelines of NATO summit in July. After boat carrying migrants 14 June capsized near Greek island Morea, killing at least 79 with hundreds missing, Ankara 16 June called for “fair burden sharing” in refugee problem.

In other important developments. Armenian PM Nikol Pashinyan 3 June attended Erdoğan’s inauguration ceremony in capital Ankara. Erdoğan 15 June called for new “civilian constitution”. Sweden and Ankara held talks on former’s NATO membership bid; Sweden 1 June formally promulgated revised terrorism laws.

President Erdoğan prevailed in runoff election, military targeted Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) and affiliates in Türkiye, Iraq and Syria, and Ankara pursued normalisation with Syria and Egypt.

President Erdoğan won runoff election. In 14 May parliamentary and presidential elections, ruling People’s Alliance secured parliamentary majority, but neither incumbent president nor main opposition candidate Kemal Kilicdaroglu surpassed 50% threshold for presidency. In runoff 28 May, Erdoğan secured presidency with 52%. International election observers called initial poll “mostly peaceful”; unidentified group 7 May attacked Istanbul Mayor and vice-presidential candidate Ekrem İmamoğlu in Erzurum province, injuring 17.

Operations continued against PKK in Türkiye and affiliates abroad. In Türkiye, govt claimed security operation in rural areas of Şırnak province 16 May killed three PKK members, three soldiers and village guard; security forces 22 May detained 23 alleged PKK members suspected of starting forest fires in Mersin and Antalya provinces. In northern Iraq, Turkish intelligence 4 May claimed to have killed PKK’s so-called training officer Ahmet Gümüş and 8 May captured high-ranking PKK member Azime Dursun at Erbil airport; security authorities in Iraq’s Kurdistan region claimed Turkish drone 23 May killed three members of Sinjar Resistance Units (see Iraq). In Syria, Syrian Democratic Forces 5 May said Turkish drone killed two members in Hasakah province (see Syria).

Security forces cracked down on Islamic State (ISIS). Security forces detained at least 127 individuals countrywide with alleged links to ISIS. In northern Syria, ISIS chief Abul-Hassan al-Qurayshi 1 May reportedly detonated suicide vest, killing himself, during Turkish operation to capture him; security forces 10 May captured group’s so-called Türkiye emir, Şahap Variş, in Syria.

Amid engagement with Syria and Egypt, rapprochement with Greece slowed. Turkish and Syrian FMs 10 May held first meeting since 2011 in Russian capital Moscow alongside Russian and Iranian counterparts; FM Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu stressed need for cooperation on terrorism and return of Syrian refugees. Egypt 29 May announced agreement with Ankara on “immediate start of upgrading diplomatic relations and exchanging ambassadors”. Meanwhile, rapprochement with Greece slowed amid elections in both countries.

Military targeted Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) and affiliates, country prepared for May elections, and positive atmosphere persisted with Greece amid Ankara’s regional normalisation drive.

Military continued operations against PKK and affiliates. After PKK late March renewed commitment to unilateral ceasefire until 14 May elections, military conducted operations in Van, Iğdır, Şırnak and Diyarbakır provinces as well as northern Syria and Iraq. Notably, police 25 April detained 110 individuals in 21 provinces, including politicians, journalists and artists, allegedly affiliated with PKK. In northern Iraq, Suleimaniya officials 7 April claimed Türkiye carried out drone strike near airport, allegedly targeting Syrian Democratic Forces commander Mazloum Abdi’s convoy (see Iraq). In northern Syria, Turkish defence minister 17 April announced army killed ten People’s Defence Units (YPG)/PKK militants in Aleppo after alleged YPG/PKK attack previous day injured four Turkish soldiers (see Syria).

Authorities prepared for May elections, continued crackdown on Islamic State (ISIS). Amid heightened political tensions ahead of parliamentary and presidential elections scheduled for 14 May, unknown perpetrators 31 March and 6 April fired shots at opposition party offices in Istanbul and 21 April at ruling AKP office in Adana city. Meanwhile, security forces detained at least 141 individuals with alleged ISIS links.

Atmosphere of good-will persisted with Greece. Greek and Turkish defence ministers 4 April met in Hatay province to discuss earthquake response, aid and future relations. Greece 8 April announced gradual closure of Camp Lavrion – refugee camp that Ankara had described as “PKK training camp”. Greek FM Nicos Dendias 17 April said sides should discuss “sharing potentially profitable energy projects instead of fighting over them.”

Govt continued regional normalisation efforts. Deputy FMs of Russia, Türkiye, Syria and Iran 3-4 April met in Russian capital Moscow to advance Turkish-Syrian rapprochement; defence ministers and intelligence chiefs of four countries 25 April resumed talks in Moscow on security in Syria, Ankara-Damascus normalisation and Syrian refugees in Türkiye. FM Çavuşoğlu 25 April said Turkish forces will not withdraw from Syria unless terrorist threats are eliminated. Egyptian and Turkish FMs 13 April agreed to reopen embassies and organise presidential summit.

Military targeted Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) after group had pledged in Feb to halt military actions in Türkiye, parties prepared for May elections, and tensions eased with Greece.

Military continued operations against PKK. After PKK pledged to “stop military actions in Türkiye” in Feb following earthquakes, Turkish security forces claimed to have killed and captured numerous PKK militants during March in Mardin, Tunceli, Şırnak, Şanlıurfa and Konya provinces. In northern Iraq, Turkish drone strike 1 March killed another PKK-linked senior militant and his guard near Sinjar (see Iraq).

Parties prepared for elections in May. Authorities set parliamentary and presidential elections for 14 May. Six-party opposition alliance 6 March named Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu as its joint presidential candidate, while second biggest opposition alliance, formed by six left-wing parties, decided not to field candidate, tacitly supporting Kılıçdaroğlu. Constitutional Court 9 March unfroze funds of pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP); fearing ban from politics as authorities pursue closure case against it, HDP decided to enter election under “Green Left Party”.

Atmosphere of good-will persisted between govt and Greece. Amid increased diplomatic contact between Ankara and Athens following earthquakes, Greek PM Kyriakos Mitsotakis 13 March observed “de-escalation and a more positive attitude and behaviour” after “a long period of unacceptable provocation”. Greek and Turkish defence ministers 9 March held call, reiterating commitment to positive atmosphere. After meeting FM Cavusoglu 20 March, Greek FM Nikos Dendias announced Türkiye will support Greece’s bid to become non-permanent member of UN Security Council in 2025-2026, while Greece will support Türkiye’s bid for post of secretary general of International Maritime Organisation. Govt and Greece 22 March held fourth meeting for Positive Agenda in Ankara, announcing progress on 25 agenda topics.

In other important developments. Death toll of devastating earthquakes 23 March rose above 50,000, as damage likely exceeded $100bn. Security forces during month detained around 100 individuals with alleged links to Islamic State. In sign of thawing ties, FM Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu 18 March visited Egyptian capital Cairo in first such visit in decade. Parliament 30 March ratified Finland’s NATO membership.

Deadly earthquakes wreaked unprecedented destruction, spurring international response; Kurdish Workers’ Party (PKK) announced conditional ceasefire as hostilities persisted in Syria and Iraq.

Earthquakes killed tens of thousands, unleashed humanitarian crisis. In deadliest natural disaster in republic’s almost 100-year history, two major earthquakes 6 Feb rocked 11 southern provinces, killing over 40,000 people, injuring over 100,000, collapsing or damaging 100,000 buildings, and displacing up to 1.5mn people. Earthquakes galvanised international support: notably, more than 75 countries dispatched over 10,000 rescue workers and, alongside other high-level officials, NATO Sec Gen Jens Stoltenberg 15-16 Feb and U.S. Sec State Antony Blinken 19-20 Feb visited affected areas. Facing public criticism over its earthquake response and allegations of malpractice in construction sector, govt 8 Feb reportedly briefly restricted access to Twitter and detained some individuals voicing criticism, while ruling party officials reportedly raised prospect of delaying May elections. Social media users and far-right politicians framed Syrian refugees as “looters” amid reports of sporadic law and order breakdown in some areas.

PKK announced unilateral ceasefire in Türkiye. Following earthquakes, one of PKK’s leaders Cemil Bayık 9 Feb announced cessation of hostilities within country, conditional on military not attacking group; month witnessed no military operations against PKK in country following announcement. Authorities 25 Feb arrested PKK militant in Konya province who was allegedly waiting for orders to carry out sensational attack. Hostilities persisted elsewhere: Turkish forces continued operations in northern Iraq, while northern Syria witnessed slight reduction in fighting, notwithstanding several drone strikes (see Iraq and Syria).

Tensions eased with Greece following disaster. Greek FM Nikos Dendias 12 Feb visited earthquake-affected areas with FM Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu; Dendias pledged continued support, while Çavuşoğlu said both countries should not “wait for another disaster to hit … to restore their relations”, adding that their solidarity following earthquakes will be decisive in “opening a new page” in relations.

Authorities arrested Islamic State (ISIS) suspects. Authorities detained some 95 individuals with alleged links to ISIS countrywide. Notably, police 4 Feb detained 15 suspects in Istanbul with alleged instructions to carry out attacks in city in retaliation to Quran-burning incidents in Jan.

Govt continued operations against Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) and affiliates as well as Syrian govt positions in northern Syria, while tensions with Greece remained elevated.

Military continued operations in south-eastern Türkiye, northern Syria and northern Iraq. Operations against PKK continued in rural areas of Diyarbakır, Bingöl, Muş and Batman provinces, while military continued airstrikes against militants in northern Iraq and Syria; presidential spokesperson Ibrahim Kalın 14 Jan asserted ground operation into Syria was “possible any time”. As military shelled Syrian govt positions, Ankara signalled openness to normalise ties with regime (see Syria); after Syrian FM 14 Jan said Türkiye had to end its “occupation” of Syria to normalise relations, senior Turkish official 18 Jan said everything could be negotiated, including total or partial withdrawal of Turkish troops from Syria.

Tensions with Greece remained elevated. Greek coast guard 5 Jan said one of its patrol boats fired warning shots to deter Turkish coast guard vessel trying to ram it in eastern Aegean sea. Greek media 8 Jan reported that Turkish UAV violated Greek airspace by flying over island of Kandeliousa. Greek FM Nikos Dendias 12 Jan called for European Union import ban on fish from Türkiye due to what he referred to as illegal fishing practices by Turkish vessels in Greek territorial waters. Greek PM Mitsotakis 19 Jan said two countries can “resolve differences”, while President Erdoğan 20 Jan responded “as long as you act wisely, we have no thought of attacking Athens”. As Greek news reports indicated Athens was planning to extend its territorial waters to 12 nautical miles south of island of Crete, Turkish officials voiced opposition.

Erdoğan announced elections for May, authorities arrested suspected Islamic State (ISIS)-linked individuals. Erdoğan 18 Jan said presidential and parliamentary elections would take place on 14 May; date yet to be confirmed. Constitutional Court 5 Jan blocked bank accounts of pro-Kurdish People’s Democratic Party (HDP), depriving party of receiving election grants from treasury. Police detained some 80 individuals with alleged links to ISIS, primarily foreigners. Meanwhile, govt condemned Quran-burning incident at protest in Sweden; govt yet to ratify Finland’s and Sweden’s NATO membership bids.

Govt continued operations against Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) and Syrian affiliate amid threat of ground operation in Syria, while tensions with Greece remained elevated.

Military continued operations against Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK)-linked militants. Security operations, including drone strikes targeting upper echelons of PKK and its Syrian affiliate People’s Protection Units (YPG), continued in both northern Syria and northern Iraq, albeit at lower intensity than in Nov (see Syria). Amid ongoing concern that Ankara remains intent on new ground incursion into northern Syria, possibly aimed at YPG-held town Tal Rıfat, west of Euphrates River, President Erdoğan 11 Dec requested Moscow to prioritise withdrawal of PKK/YPG elements from 30km border strip and 26 Dec said Türkiye will “enter a new phase of struggle that will destroy [their] entire infrastructure and resources”. In south eastern Türkiye, car bomb attack in majority Kurdish province of Diyarbakır 16 Dec injured eight police officers and one civilian.

Maritime tensions with Greece continued despite dialogue. National Security Council 1 Dec announced it expected Greece to immediately demilitarise Aegean islands off Turkish coast, while Greek foreign ministry 7 Dec rejected Türkiye’s “unilateral claims” and “threats of war”. Erdoğan 11 Dec stated that “TAYFUN missile will hit Athens … unless you behave”; Greek FM Dendias next day called rhetoric “unacceptable” from NATO ally. Turkish and Greek officials 16 Dec met in Belgian capital Brussels for Germany-brokered talks. Sides continued mutual accusations of airspace violations.

Political tensions heightened ahead of 2023 elections. Ahead of elections due between April and June, criminal court 14 Dec sentenced Istanbul metropolitan mayor and potential presidential candidate Ekrem İmamoğlu to two years and seven months in jail and banned him from politics for insulting members of Supreme Electoral Council, with appeal process underway. In response, tens of thousands of citizens 15-16 Dec rallied before Istanbul municipality.

In other important developments. Police detained some 85 individuals countrywide during month with alleged links to Islamic State. Defence Minister Hulusi Akar and intelligence chief Hakan Fidan 28 Dec met with Russian and Syrian counterparts, marking first official ministerial-level engagement between Türkiye and Syria in 11 years (see Syria).

Govt blamed Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) and Syrian affiliate for deadly Istanbul bombing that killed six, launching strikes in Syria and Iraq and threatening new ground operations.

Govt attributed Istanbul attack to PKK and Syrian affiliate People’s Protection Units (YPG). In first street bombing targeting civilians since 2017, explosion 13 Nov in bustling Istanbul street killed six and injured at least 81 civilians; officials immediately blamed “the [PKK and YPG]”. Security forces 14 Nov announced arrest of alleged bomber and Syrian national Ahlam Albashir and 49 other suspects; PKK and YPG-led Syrian Democratic Forces 14 Nov separately denied involvement. Govt 28 Nov claimed new evidence linking plot to YPG.

Military announced new operations in Syria and Iraq. Following bomb attack, military 20 Nov began “Operation Claw Sword”, conducting airstrikes in northern Syria and Iraq against scores of alleged PKK and YPG targets (see Syria and Iraq). President Erdoğan next day signalled possible ground incursions in both countries and 28 Nov stated govt was “determined to root out the PKK” in both; threat of ground incursion in northern Syria appeared more likely than in Iraq, and could trigger displacement and fuel escalatory cycle of violence with YPG (see Syria). Retaliatory cross-border attacks from northern Syria increased: notably, rocket attack 21 Nov killed three civilians in Gaziantep province. Earlier, operations against PKK within country concentrated on rural areas of Bitlis, Tunceli and Hakkari provinces.

Tensions with Greece remained elevated. Erdoğan 16 Nov reiterated threats that Türkiye “can come suddenly one night” and criticised Greece’s alleged militarisation of Aegean islands; Greece’s FM Nikos Dendias same day condemned threat. Meanwhile, Greek military 10 Nov reported Turkish armed drone flew over Greek islet of Kandelioussa. Turkish Oil Exploration Company 25 Nov said drillship was planning new mission in eastern Mediterranean, triggering uproar in Greek media.

In other important developments. Security forces arrested at least 90 individuals countrywide with alleged links to Islamic State. Ruling party officials 6 Nov met Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP), signalling manoeuvring ahead of 2023 elections. Ankara continued efforts to normalise relations with Israel, Armenia and Egypt.

Military targeted Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) and affiliates in Iraq, Syria and south east Türkiye, while tensions remained high with Greece amid new energy exploration agreement with Libya.

Military continued operations against PKK and its affiliates. Operations within Türkiye were concentrated in rural areas of Elazığ, Şırnak and Hakkari provinces. In northern Iraq, operations were concentrated particularly in Duhok region; notably, PKK attack 1 Oct killed Turkish soldier (see Iraq). In northern Syria, Turkish drone strike 6 Oct killed People’s Defence Units (YPG) commander in Aleppo provinces (see Syria); Ankara appeared to remain intent on conducting new military operation against YPG/Syrian Democratic Forces but is yet to secure approval of U.S. or Russia.

Ankara struck deal with Libya, prompting Greece’s condemnation. FM Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu 3 Oct announced govt and Libya had signed memorandum of understanding on joint energy explorations in their agreed Exclusive Economic Zone that was bilaterally declared in late 2019, which is disputed by Egypt and Greece. Greece protested deal, saying implementation “will be de facto illegal and, depending on its gravity, there will be a reaction both at a bilateral level and at the level of the EU and NATO”; Turkish foreign ministry 4 Oct accused Greece of “trying to usurp the legitimate rights of Turkey and Libya with its maximalist maritime jurisdiction demands”. Tensions between Athens and Ankara also remained high over irregular flow of migrants across land and sea borders with Ankara accusing Greece of illegal pushbacks, and Greece accusing Türkiye of deliberately pushing migrants westwards towards Greece.

In other important developments. Security units’ operations against Islamic State (ISIS) continued with nearly 90 individuals detained during month; notably, police 17 Oct detained six suspects in southern Adana province. President Erdoğan 6 Oct met Armenian PM Nikol Pashinyan for first face-to-face meeting since countries began new process to normalise ties this year.

Tensions with Greece continued to mount amid maritime incident, while military targeted Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) and affiliates in Iraq, Syria and south east Türkiye.

Tensions persisted with Greece amid maritime incident and escalating rhetoric. President Erdoğan 3 Sept warned Greece would pay “heavy” price if it went “too far” and warned: “We may come suddenly one night”. Greek PM Mitsotakis 13 Sept responded: “We wait in the daylight for those who claim that they may come suddenly one night”. Ankara 10 Sept claimed two Greek Coast Guard boats opened harassment fire on Turkish ship in international waters, immediately protested; Greek Coast Guard next day said it opened fire when captain did not comply with orders. Turkish media outlets 25 Sept reported that Greece had deployed tactical armoured vehicles to some eastern Aegean islands, which Ankara asserts ought to be demilitarised under international treaties; Ankara next day summoned Greek ambassador and protested to U.S. over reported deployment of U.S.-supplied vehicles. Greece 29 Sept said Türkiye has no right “to flagrantly violate international law and threaten Greece with war” and Athens “is in favour of dialogue”. Tensions also rose after U.S. late Sept lifted decades-old arms embargo on Republic of Cyprus, prompting stern Turkish response (see Cyprus).

Military continued operations against PKK and its affiliates. Operations during month held primarily in northern Iraq’s Duhok region, where clashes with PKK 11 Sept killed four Turkish soldiers and wounded two (see Iraq). In northern Syria, military 7 and 11 Sept struck villages near Tal Tamer; suspected Syrian Democratic Forces cross-border attack 18 Sept on Turkish border post in Suruç district of Şanlıurfa province killed Turkish soldier. In south east Türkiye, defence ministry 18 Sept announced it “neutralised” two “PKK/YPG members” in Hakkari province. In southern Mersin province, two PKK militants 26 Sept opened fire on police residence and later killed themselves by detonating suicide bombs.

In other important developments. Security forces 2 Sept arrested Semra Güzel, pro-Kurdish People’s Democratic Party (HDP) MP, on PKK membership charges. Police during month detained at least 90 individuals with alleged Islamic State (ISIS) links across country, majority of them foreigners.

Amid military operations against Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), fighting escalated with Kurdish-led forces in Syria, while tensions persisted with Greece and govt restored ties with Israel. In escalation in northern Syria, military launched strikes on Kurdish-led forces, who claimed attacks on army sites in Turkish border provinces that killed several Turkish soldiers (see Syria). Military also continued operations against PKK in Iraq and Türkiye’s south east. In northern Iraq, Defence ministry 27 Aug said it killed nine PKK militants. In Türkiye’s south east, military 8 Aug launched new anti-PKK operation in rural areas of Bitlis province. Interior Minister Süleyman Soylu 19 Aug said only 124 PKK members remained within country’s borders and “no terrorist will remain in the countryside” in 2023. Authorities detained at least 30 pro-Kurdish People’s Democratic Party (HDP) officials. Police detained at least 125 individuals with alleged links to Islamic State (ISIS). Meanwhile, tensions persisted between Ankara and Athens. Media outlets 16 Aug reported Greek authorities mid-month transported group of 38 migrants stranded on islet on Evros/Meriç river along Türkiye-Greece land border since mid-July to mainland Greece; Turkish authorities throughout month accused Athens of pushing back migrants on border, while Greek officials countered that Turkish security officials forced them to cross. Defence ministry 28 Aug accused Greece of locking on to Turkish jets with S-300 air defence systems on 23 Aug, which Greek authorities denied on 29 Aug. On diplomatic front, FM Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu 11 Aug announced brief exchange with Syrian FM Faisal Mekdad, in which former voiced need to reconcile regime and opposition, sparking speculation over potential shift in Syria policy. In similar vein, President Erdoğan 19 Aug mentioned potential “political dialogue or diplomacy” with Syrian regime. Erdoğan met Russia’s President Putin and Ukraine’s President Zelenskyy 5 and 18 Aug, respectively, as part of efforts to ensure safe grain passage from Ukraine. Ankara and Israel 17 Aug announced restoration of full diplomatic relations. Ankara, Sweden and Finland 26 Aug agreed to continue consultations over Nordic nations’ NATO bid.

Military continued operations against Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), tensions persisted with Greece, and govt pursued normalisation with Armenia. Military continued operations against PKK and its affiliates in northern Iraq, northern Syria and, to lesser extent, Türkiye, seeking to target PKK’s upper echelons. In notable escalation, artillery fire 20 July killed nine tourists and injured more than 20 in Duhok province in Iraq’s Kurdistan autonomous region; Iraqi and Kurdistan Regional Govt authorities blamed attack on Türkiye and issued harsh and critical statements, while Ankara rejected these claims and held PKK responsible (see Iraq). Security operations against Islamic State (ISIS) cells/operatives continued, leading to at least 110 individuals with alleged links to ISIS being detained across country, majority of them foreigners. Tensions remained elevated with Greece over Eastern Mediterranean/Aegean Sea disputes. President Erdoğan 1 July responded to calls for meeting with Greek PM Kyriakos Mitsotakis at NATO summit, saying: “We said, ‘Sorry, but we don’t have time for such a meeting right now’. Because it is obvious that they are militarising the islands”; Erdoğan also asserted: “We don’t want war with Greece, but Greece does not keep its word”. Ankara and Athens also exchanged barbs over movement of irregular migrants across Aegean and Türkiye-Greece land border during month. Meanwhile, govt and Armenia made progress in normalising ties. Special representatives from both sides 1 July held their fourth meeting in Austrian capital Vienna. In historic move, Ankara and Yerevan agreed to – as soon as possible – enable crossing of land border by third-country nationals; they also agreed to commence direct air cargo trade between their countries. FM Çavuşoğlu 4 July announced that Türkiye had offered to hold normalisation talks in Yerevan. After govt lifted its veto on Sweden’s and Finland’s NATO bids last month, President Erdoğan 18 July warned: “If these countries do not take the necessary steps to fulfil our conditions, we will freeze the process”; it remained to be seen which steps two Nordic nations will take and whether those will satisfy Ankara’s demands.

Authorities pursued plans for military operation against Kurdish militants in Syria and detained dozens of Kurdish party members at home; meanwhile, tensions with Greece rose. President Erdoğan 1 June announced fifth cross-border operation into northern Syria, hoping to clear Tal Rifaat and Manbij of People’s Protection Forces (YPG) militants – Syrian affiliate of Kurdish Workers Party (PKK) – and extend 30km “safe zone” south of border (see Syria); U.S. and Russian opposition appeared, for now, to stall operation. Military also continued PKK operations in northern Iraq and, to lesser extent, south-eastern Turkey, albeit at slower pace compared to May. At home, authorities increased pressure on pro-Kurdish People’s Democratic Party (HDP). Notably, police 3 June detained over 40 HDP members, including party’s provincial co-chairs in Istanbul, Bingöl, and Edirne cities; 8 June detained over 20 Kurdish journalists in south-eastern majority Kurdish province of Diyarbakır, 16 of whom were later arrested on terrorism propaganda charges. Authorities detained at least 110 individuals with alleged Islamic State links during month. Tensions escalated with Greece over Eastern Mediterranean/Aegean Sea disputes. After complaining in May about Turkish military flights over Greek islands, Athens 1 June put its military on high alert and 6 June protested Türkiye’s actions at UN; Turkish officials accused Greece of militarising eastern Aegean islands in contravention of international treaties. Greek defence minister 7 June said Athens was “dangerously close to its limits”, while FM Çavuşoğlu same day questioned Greek sovereignty over some Aegean islands, which drew harsh reactions from Athens. NATO Sec Gen Jens Stoltenberg 14 June called on sides to de-escalate and resolve disputes; tensions and military manoeuvres in Aegean Sea raise risk that small incident could spark escalation. Defying expectations at NATO summit, Ankara 29 June lifted veto on Finland and Sweden’s accession in return for measures from both countries addressing its concerns. Ankara continued efforts to establish safe corridor to ship over 20 tonnes of grain from Ukraine, critical for global food security (see Ukraine). Govt remained invested in diplomatic efforts to normalise ties with regional adversaries, receiving Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman 22 June (see Saudi Arabia).

Authorities continued operations against Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), arrested scores of suspected Islamic State operatives, and set strict conditions for new NATO bids amid Ukraine war. Operations – including drone strikes – continued in northern Iraq, northern Syria, as well as to lesser extent in Turkey’s south east throughout month. Turkish military continued operations against PKK in Metina, Avasin and Zap regions of northern Iraq as part of Operation Claw Lock launched 18 April (see Iraq). President Erdoğan 23 May announced new security operations along southern borders, although it remains unclear where they will concentrate (see Syria). Security units’ operations against Islamic State (ISIS) cells/operatives across country intensified during month; police detained more than 130 individuals with alleged ISIS links, mostly foreigners. Notably, police 16 May arrested three Syrians in south-eastern Şanlıurfa province, one of them reportedly planning to carry out suicide attack, 17 May arrested foreign national allegedly planning suicide attack in western Bursa province, and 24 May disrupted suicide plot by another foreign national in Istanbul city. Internationally, after Finland and Sweden during month announced intention to join NATO alliance amid Ukraine war, Ankara 13 May announced it would block requests unless both countries meet set of demands, including halting alleged support for PKK, extraditing individuals sought by Ankara and lifting arms export restrictions on Turkey. Erdoğan 13 May cited Ankara’s past decision to permit Greece’s re-entry into NATO as reason for caution with proposed accession by Finland and Sweden to alliance, saying “we do not want to make the same mistake again” due to “attitude Greece has adopted towards Turkey with NATO behind its back”. Referring to Greek PM Kyriakos Mitsotakis, Erdoğan 23 May said “I will never agree to meet with him”; statement came after Mitsotakis in 17 May speech before U.S. Congress tacitly criticised Turkey for its actions in Aegean/East Mediterranean and asked U.S. not to supply Turkey with F-16 fighter jets; diplomatic tracks between Greece and Turkey on hold since mid-May. Turkish FM Çavuşoğlu 25 May visited Israel to meet his counterpart Yair Lapid; sides agreed to foster economic cooperation and carry on dialogue to normalise bilateral ties.

Military operations against Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) intensified in northern Iraq, human rights advocates received heavy sentences, and President Erdoğan visited Saudi Arabia. Military 18 April launched new operation against PKK in northern Iraq dubbed “Claw-Lock”; fighter jets targeted infrastructure and bases used by PKK militants in Metina, Zap and Avashin-Basyan regions (see Iraq). In Turkey, roadside bomb attack 20 April hit bus carrying prison guards in western Bursa province, killing one and injuring thirteen; Peoples’ United Revolutionary Movement, umbrella group spearheaded by PKK, 24 April claimed attack. Police crackdown against pro-Kurdish People’s Democratic Party continued during month, including 12 April detention of 91 individuals on charges of offering financial support to PKK. Security operations against Islamic State (ISIS) cells/operatives continued; police detained more than 120 individuals with alleged ISIS links across country. In contravention of legally-binding judgment of European Court of Human Rights from Dec 2019, penal court in Istanbul city 25 April sentenced businessman and human rights advocate Osman Kavala to life in prison without parole on charges of “attempting to overthrow the government” over his involvement in 2013 Gezi park protests; seven other well-known human rights activists also sentenced to 18 years in prison in same case. Ankara and Athens continued diplomatic engagement, notwithstanding tensions. FM Çavuşoğlu 4 April said dialogue channels between sides were more open today than ever before. Govts 19 April confirmed they will hold fourth round of talks on military confidence building measures (date yet to be announced). Greece 27 April protested “unacceptable provocation” following flights by Turkish fighter jets in Aegean Sea, claiming it violated Greek airspace; Turkey rejected claims and accused Athens of violating its airspace. Govt 22 April pulled out of NATO air force exercises due to be held in Greece in May. In move intended to pave way toward normalisation of ties with Saudi Arabia, Turkish court 7 April suspended case in absentia of Jamal Khashoggi’s murder suspects, deciding to transfer it to Saudi Arabia; human rights groups heavily criticised move. President Erdoğan 28 April visited Saudi Arabia to meet Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman (see Saudi Arabia).

Military operations continued against Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) in south east and northern Iraq, albeit at reduced intensity, while Ankara engaged with Greece, Israel and Armenia. Military operations against PKK remained concentrated primarily in northern Iraq, with occasional clashes in Turkey’s south east and at Turkey-Syria border. Numerous airstrikes in northern Iraq and some ground operations in Turkey targeting PKK positions persisted, but at lesser intensity than in previous months likely due to harsh winter conditions in area’s mountainous terrain where conflict remains concentrated. Ground operations in Turkey’s south east during month took place in rural areas of Diyarbakır, Mardin, Hakkari and Hatay provinces. Turkish forces continued targeting senior PKK figures, including via use of armed drones. Turkish military 8 and 10 March targeted “PKK/Kurdish group People’s Defence Units (YPG)” positions at Turkey-Syria border. Security forces continued operations against Islamic State (ISIS) cells/operatives; police detained more than 100 individuals (including Turkish citizens and other nationals) with alleged links to ISIS across country. Relations between authorities and Greek govt improved, in large part catalysed by war in Ukraine. Greek PM Mitsotakis 13 March met with President Erdoğan in Istanbul city, where two leaders agreed on keeping communication channels open and improving bilateral relations; following meeting, Turkish presidency noted “Turkey and Greece have a special responsibility in the European security architecture, which is changing with Russia’s attack on Ukraine”. Defence Minister Hulusi Akar and Greek counterpart 16 March emphasised importance of maintaining dialogue; sides are expected to meet for fourth round of talks on military confidence-building measures in Ankara next month. Ankara remained invested in efforts to normalise ties with Israel and Armenia. In first visit by Israel’s head of state to country since 2007, President Isaac Herzog 9 March met Erdoğan, who described visit as “opportunity to revive the energy cooperation that began before”, signalling potential alternative pipeline or other collaboration that may carry Eastern Mediterranean gas to Europe. Armenian FM Mirzoyan 10 March attended Antalya Diplomacy Forum where he expressed willingness “to establish diplomatic relations and open borders with Turkey”.

Military continued operations against Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) in northern Iraq and south east Turkey, while President Erdoğan urged support for Ukraine following Russia’s invasion. Military operations against PKK remained concentrated in northern Iraq, with occasional clashes in south east and at Turkey-Syria border. Notably, military 2 Feb launched simultaneous cross-border aerial campaign (dubbed “Winter Eagle”), with airstrikes in northern Syria’s Derik city, and Sinjar and Makhmour regions in northern Iraq. Ground operations in south east during Feb were concentrated in rural areas of Şanlıurfa, Bingöl and Muş provinces. Security units’ operations against Islamic State (ISIS) cells/operatives across country continued, leading to detention of more than 85 individuals with alleged ISIS links. High inflation led to rising energy prices and ignited discontent. Notably, 11 mayors from main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP), including Istanbul’s mayor, 8 Feb released joint statement calling for govt to ease “unbearable” burden of energy prices on local administrations. Detention of businessman and human rights advocate Osman Kavala remained point of tension with western allies; Council of Europe’s Committee of Ministers 2 Feb referred Kavala case to European Court of Human Rights, which will determine whether govt, by not releasing Kavala, violated European Convention on Human Rights; Erdoğan 3 Feb dismissed decision as “biased”. Tensions persisted with Greece in eastern Mediterranean. FM Çavuşoğlu 10 Feb said that if militarisation of islands close to Turkey’s mainland continues, “sovereignty of these islands will be discussed”. Erdoğan 16 Feb stated that govt will make the highest-level warning if Greece “continues with its provocations” because it is “not possible” to remain silent on military activities carried out on islands which ought to be demilitarised. Turkish and Greek officials 22-23 Feb met for round of “exploratory talks” in Greek capital Athens that led to no substantial progress. Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine (see Ukraine), Erdoğan 24 Feb called attack “serious blow to peace and stability” and “unacceptable”; Erdoğan next day criticised NATO and EU for not taking more decisive steps in support of Ukraine. Turkish FM Çavuşoğlu 28 Feb announced that Turkey closed Bosphorus and Dardanelles waterways to passage of “all warships”.

Military operations against Kurdistan Workers’ Party continued in south east and northern Iraq, while security forces detained over 100 Islamic State-linked suspects. Military operations against Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) remained concentrated in northern Iraq, but some clashes took place in Turkey’s south east. Notably, IED explosion 8 Jan killed three Turkish soldiers in Şanlıurfa’s Akçakale district on Turkey-Syria border; military in subsequent days responded with operations targeting PKK members in border area. Ground operations in south east were concentrated in rural areas of Tunceli, Mardin and Şanlıurfa provinces. Air operations in northern Iraq and northern Syria continued targeting higher-ranking members of PKK. In Syria, bomb attacks targeting Turkish security forces and Ankara-backed rebels in Turkish-controlled Afrin, al-Bab and Azaz mid-month prompted Turkish military retaliation (see Syria). Govt 4 Jan submitted request to parliament to lift legislative immunities of 24 pro-Kurdish opposition Peoples’ Democratic Party MPs, including party’s current Co-Chair Pervin Buldan. Security units’ operations against Islamic State (ISIS) continued during month. Police detained around 100 individuals with suspected links to ISIS across country. Notably, in significant raid on 12 Jan, police detained 21 individuals, including ten Syrian and four Iraqi nationals, in southern Mersin province. Maritime tensions in eastern Mediterranean with Greece continued. Greek FM Nikos Dendias 4 Jan said Turkey’s rhetoric against Greece “has reached a level we have not seen for years”; Defence Minister Hulusi Akar 8 Jan accused Greece of undermining NATO by attempting to form alliances within bloc. Fifth meeting of the Turkish-Greek Joint Economic Committee 26 Jan commenced in Greek capital Athens for first time since 2010; Turkey and Greece signed Fifth Term Protocol to enhance bilateral trade relations and cooperation in several fields at Committee meeting. Turkish Defence Minister Hulusi Akar same day said Turkey was ready to engage with Greek side in fourth round of military-to-military talks on confidence-building measures. Meanwhile, Ankara and Yerevan continued steps to normalise relations. Armenia 1 Jan lifted embargo on Turkish goods; Turkish Special Envoy Serdar Kılıç and Armenia’s Special Envoy Ruben Rubinyan 14 Jan met for first time in Russian capital Moscow in “positive and constructive atmosphere”.

Amid deepening economic strains, authorities continued military operations against Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) and detained dozens of suspected Islamic State (ISIS) supporters. Military operations against the PKK predominantly took place in northern Iraq (see Iraq), while some clashes occurred in country’s south east. Notably, clashes in south-eastern province of Tunceli 3 Dec killed Turkish soldier. Ground operations in south east during month were concentrated in rural areas of Tunceli, Mardin, Şırnak and Hakkari provinces; security forces 29 Dec launched counter-terrorism operation against PKK in south east’s Batman province. Security units continued operations against Islamic State (ISIS) cells and operatives as police during month carried out more than 190 detentions of individuals allegedly linked with ISIS, majority of them foreigners; notably police 9 Dec conducted simultaneous raids in capital Ankara, detaining 22 foreign nationals, and same day detained 11 foreign nationals in Istanbul city; 28 Dec detained 16 people accused of ISIS links. Police 14 Dec also detained nine Iraqi nationals in central Anatolian province of Kırşehir, with many detainees suspected of allegedly planning attacks on New Year’s celebrations. Economy continued to face strains. President Erdoğan 2 Dec appointed new treasury and finance minister, Nureddin Nebati; 8 Dec called on citizens to be patient and trust Turkey’s new economic path, reaffirming commitment to low interest rates, which he said will boost investment, jobs, exports and growth. After hitting record lows in first half of the month, Turkish lira rebounded after Erdoğan’s 20 Dec announcement of new program to protect local deposits against currency fluctuations. Internationally, Turkey and Armenia 13 Dec announced they will mutually appoint special envoys to discuss steps to normalise relations (see Armenia, and Armenia/Turkey). Turkish Foreign Minister Çavuşoğlu 13 Dec said Turkey “will act together with Azerbaijan at every step” and 27 Dec confirmed first meeting of special envoys, who will lead dialogue between Yerevan and Ankara, will take place in Russian capital Moscow. Turkey and Greece exchanged barbs over migrant pushbacks in Aegean Sea during month; Athens and Ankara officials also continued harsh rhetoric regarding Aegean dispute, dimming prospects for progress in “exploratory talks” relaunched between two sides in Jan 2021.

Military continued operations against Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), while security forces detained over 100 suspected Islamic State (ISIS) members. Military continued air and ground operations against PKK, specifically airstrikes targeting higher-ranking PKK members, in south east and northern Iraq. Security forces continued operations against ISIS operatives. Police during month detained more than 115 individuals with suspected links to ISIS across country. Notably, police 2 Nov carried out simultaneous raids in 27 locations in Istanbul, Adana, Batman and Şanlıurfa, detaining 18 people. Police same day detained 18 Iraqi nationals in central Anatolian province of Kayseri accused of having joined ISIS in Syria and Iraq before entering Turkey. Leaders of major opposition parties Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu (CHP) and Meral Akşener (IYI) 17 Nov called on President Erdoğan to hold early elections; ruling alliance consisting of Justice and Development Party (AKP) and Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) however insisted on sticking to mid-2023 timeline.

Military operations continued against Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) in south east and northern Iraq, and authorities arrested scores of alleged Islamic State supporters. Military continued operations against PKK in south east and northern Iraq. In south east, operations concentrated in rural areas of Bingöl and Şırnak provinces; interior ministry 5 Oct claimed number of PKK members operating inside country dropped to 189. In northern Iraq, military conducted air operations targeting higher-ranking members of PKK. Attack in northern Syria 10 Oct killed two Turkish policemen, for which Ankara blamed People’s Protection Units (YPG) – Syrian armed group with links to PKK (see Syria). Parliament 27 Oct extended military’s mandate to launch cross-border military operations in Iraq and Syria for two years. Security units continued operations against Islamic State (ISIS) cells/operatives across country. Police detained more than 130 individuals with alleged ISIS links during month. Notably, security units 5 Oct carried out simultaneous raids in 18 locations in Istanbul, detaining 16 individuals, and police 12 Oct detained 11 ISIS-linked suspects in simultaneous raids in nine provinces, including Ankara and Adana. In sign of deteriorating relations with West, President Erdoğan 23 Oct said he had ordered foreign ministry to declare persona non grata ten Western ambassadors, including U.S., Canada, France and Germany, after they issued joint statement calling for release of businessman and human rights activist Osman Kavala who has been jailed since Oct 2017; crisis was defused after embassies reaffirmed commitment to Article 41 of Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations, which stipulates that diplomatic missions shall not interfere in domestic affairs of their host country. In response, Erdoğan 27 Oct stepped back from his decision to expel the ambassadors. Erdoğan and U.S. President Biden 31 Oct met on sidelines of G20 summit, focusing on bilateral relations as well as regional issues, including Eastern Mediterranean.

Authorities reported dwindling number of Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) militants across country, and continued operations against alleged Islamic State supporters. Interior minister 8 Sept claimed number of Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) militants in country had dropped below 200 for first time since conflict began, claiming “Turkey has been cleared of terror”; Defence Minister Hulusi Akar same day vowed to continue fight against group with determination “until the last terrorist is neutralised”. Turkey continued operations against PKK in northern Iraq as airstrikes targeted suspected PKK targets throughout month; defence minister 12, 17 and 24 Sept announced death of Turkish soldiers in northern Iraq (see Iraq). Govt continued efforts to delegitimise pro-Kurdish opposition Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP); police 1 Sept detained more than 50 individuals protesting on World Peace Day in economic capital Istanbul, including HDP members and party officials. Security units continued to carry out operations against Islamic State (ISIS) cells/operatives across country. Notably, police during month detained more than 80 individuals for their alleged links to ISIS, majority of them foreigners (mostly Syrian and Iraqi nationals).

Authorities continued to target pro-Kurdish opposition, and to launch operations abroad against Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK); concerns grew over potential new wave of Afghan refugees. Govt continued efforts to delegitimise pro-Kurdish opposition Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP). Police 1 Aug detained 11 people on propaganda-related charges who participated in HDP demonstration in Istanbul; security forces 14 Aug detained five individuals in Muş province, including HDP provincial co-chair, on terrorism charges, and 20 Aug detained 19 individuals, including HDP officials, in Istanbul. Lawsuit to ban HDP continued; HDP lawyers 16 Aug requested additional time from Constitutional Court to prepare for defence. Meanwhile, PKK 12 Aug conducted mortar attack on Turkish military base in northern Iraq, killing one Turkish soldier. Reported Turkish drone and airstrikes 16-17 Aug around Iraq’s Sinjar district targeting PKK-linked Sinjar Resistance Units (YBS) and medical clinic killed at least ten people, including civilians and senior YBS member Said Hassan (see Iraq). Turkish airstrikes targeting Peoples Protection Units (YPG) in northern Syria continued (see Syria). Security forces also continued operations against Islamic State (ISIS) across country, with police detaining some 70 individuals for their alleged ISIS links. Notably, police 14, 19 Aug detained 20 ISIS suspects, majority of them foreign nationals, during raids in Istanbul. Following Taliban’s seizure of Afghan capital Kabul (see Afghanistan), Ankara expressed concern over potential new mass influx of refugees; 22 Aug beefed up security at border with Iran and accelerated border wall construction. President Erdogan 16 Aug acknowledged risk of new refugee wave, said govt would work with Pakistan to bring stability, and 19 Aug said Turkey had no intention of becoming “Europe’s migrant storage unit”. Meanwhile, intercommunal tensions increased between Syrians and locals in Ankara’s Altındağ district when group of Turkish citizens 12 Aug attacked shops and homes belonging to Syrians after fight between Turkish and Syrian youths left one Turkish citizen dead.

President Erdoğan made rhetorical overtures to Kurds, while military continued operations against Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK); authorities arrested dozens of suspected jihadists. President Erdoğan 9 July visited majority-Kurdish province of Diyarbakır, announcing govt had “launched the solution process” and promising “no more blood would spill”; Erdoğan also announced new project to turn Diyarbakır prison – infamous site where thousands of Kurds allegedly suffered torture during early 1980s – into cultural centre, provoking criticism from ultra-nationalist voices. Constitutional Court 1 July ruled that rights of unseated pro-Kurdish opposition Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP) MP Ömer Faruk Gergerlioğlu had been violated after parliament in March stripped him of MP status; police forcefully dispersed HDP protests in front of his prison complex before his 6 July release; parliament 16 July reinstated his MP status. Gunman 14 July attacked HDP’s district office in southern district of Marmaris; authorities in following days detained alleged gunman and four other suspects. Meanwhile, Turkish military continued operations against PKK in northern Iraq. Notably, Turkish media 26 July reported so-called Hakurk logistics area manager of PKK was killed in northern Iraq’s Hakurk region late June; PKK had not yet confirmed his death by end of month. In northern Syria, defence ministry 24 July confirmed two Turkish soldiers were killed and two wounded in People’s Protection Units (YPG)/PKK-attributed attack on their armoured vehicle in Turkish-controlled territory; NGO Syrian Observatory for Human Rights same day reported death of three Turkish soldiers from alleged YPG shelling in rural Aleppo. Security forces continued operations against Islamic State (ISIS) across country. Police detained more than 140 individuals, most Syrian and Iraqi, for alleged ISIS ties throughout July. Interior Minister Süleyman Soylu 14 July announced that since July 2016 coup, authorities had “neutralised” 1,523 ISIS members and foiled three attacks in 2021.

Authorities continued to restrict pro-Kurdish opposition, and arrested over 200 Islamic State suspects; meanwhile, military operations targeting Kurdish militants in neighbourhood continued. Govt efforts to delegitimise pro-Kurdish opposition Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP) persisted. Constitutional Court 21 June accepted indictment seeking closure of party; 843-page indictment, among other aspects, demands that 451 party members be banned from politics for period of five years. Lone gunman 17 June stormed HDP provincial office in Izmir city and opened fire at employees, killing one; Erdoğan 21 June condemned attack. In near neighbourhood, Ankara continued efforts to curtail Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) presence, which increasingly drew in Peshmerga forces and fuelled intra-Kurdish friction in northern Iraq (see Iraq). Notably, Turkey 5 June carried out drone strikes near Makhmur camp in northern Iraq with Turkish officials claiming it functions as “incubator” for militants, reportedly killing three civilians. PKK attack same day killed five Peshmerga forces in Iraq’s Dohuk area. President Erdoğan 6 June claimed that Turkish security forces “neutralised” Selman Bozkır, one of PKK’s high-ranking members in northern Iraq. Ankara also blamed “PKK/YPG” for 12 June missile attack on hospital in Syria’s Afrin city, and same day retaliated against what it called “PKK/YPG” targets in Tal Rifat (see Syria). Meanwhile, Turkish security units continued to carry out operations against Islamic State (ISIS); police detained over 200 individuals for their alleged ISIS links, including Syrians and Iraqis. Presidents Erdoğan and Biden 14 June met on sidelines of NATO summit held in Belgian capital Brussels; Erdoğan characterised talks with Biden as “productive and sincere” while Biden said meeting was “very good”. European leaders discussed relations with Turkey during 24-25 June European Council summit, agreeing to continue offering financial support for Syrian refugees and host communities in Turkey.

Authorities continued military operations against Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) in country’s south east and in northern Iraq, and pursued crackdown on suspected ISIS supporters. In south east, military mostly targeted PKK militants and hideouts in Tunceli, Mardin and Ağrı provinces. In northern Iraq’s Duhok area, air raids and ground operations intensified as Turkish forces advanced into Amedi district. Despite objections from Baghdad, govt early May announced new base in Iraq’s Kani Masi sub-district in Duhok. President Erdoğan 17 May said that military operation in northern Iraq killed high-ranking PKK militant who allegedly ordered killing of 13 Turkish captives during Gara incident in Feb; PKK by month’s end had yet to confirm his death. Govt continued efforts to criminalise pro-Kurdish opposition Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP); Turkish security units detained more than 100 individuals affiliated with HDP during month, mostly in country’s south-eastern provinces. Notably, authorities 26 May sentenced former co-mayor of Iğdır province to seven years and six months in prison for “membership to a terrorist organisation”. Security forces continued operations against Islamic State (ISIS) operatives; police throughout month detained some 70 individuals with suspected ISIS links. Notably, police 20 May detained 18 ISIS-affiliated foreign nationals, suspected of plotting attacks, across ten districts in economic capital Istanbul. Turkey-U.S. ties were further strained this month by series of statements from senior Turkish officials condemning Israeli actions amid outbreak of fighting with Gaza-based Palestinian armed factions (see Israel-Palestine). Notably, U.S. 18 May condemned Erdoğan for “anti-Semitic comments regarding the Jewish people” and said it found them “reprehensible”; Turkish foreign ministry 19 May replied that statement was “unfounded”.

Military operations continued against Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) in south-eastern Turkey and northern Iraq, killing eight soldiers. Turkish military 25 April announced new land and air operation against the PKK in northern Iraq’s Dohuk area and 29 April in rural areas of Turkish south-eastern provinces of Şırnak and Hakkari. Fighting in rural Siirt in south east 9 April killed one soldier; rocket attack in Hakkâri province 30 April killed another. Rocket attack attributed to paramilitary coalition Popular Mobilisation Front 14 April targeted Turkish military base in Bashiqa in northern Iraq, killing one Turkish soldier; clashes late month in northern Iraq killed four soldiers, and helicopter accident 30 April left one soldier dead (see Iraq). Govt continued efforts to criminalise pro-Kurdish opposition Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP); court 2 April sentenced HDP MP Ömer Faruk Gergerlioğlu to two years and six months imprisonment on terrorist propaganda charges, and 6 April sentenced HDP deputy mayor of Kars to six years and ten months imprisonment for “membership of a terrorist organization”; court case to ban the HDP and 600 of its members is ongoing. Security forces continued operations against Islamic State (ISIS) operatives; police throughout month detained over 80 individuals for alleged links to ISIS. Meanwhile, U.S. sanctions on Ankara for its acquisition of S-400 Russian air defence system 7 April came into force. U.S. Sec State Antony Blinken and Turkish FM Çavuşoğlu in 12 April phone call discussed bilateral issues, including Turkey’s role as mediator in planned Afghan peace talks (see Afghanistan). Erdoğan 26 April denounced U.S. President Biden’s 24 April decision to recognise Armenian genocide, calling decision “groundless and unfair”. Ankara 15 April hosted high-level Greek delegation for first time in over two years to discuss regional issues (see Eastern Mediterranean).

Military slightly reduced operations against Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) in Turkey and northern Iraq while authorities actively sought to proscribe pro-Kurdish party. Govt escalated efforts to criminalise pro-Kurdish opposition Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP): chief prosecutor 17 March filed indictment with Constitutional Court seeking ban of HDP, calling it undemocratic party that colludes with “terrorist” PKK and seeks to “destroy unity of state”, as well as five-year ban on over 600 HDP members. Meanwhile, operations continued in south-eastern Şırnak, Siirt, Van and Hakkari provinces and around northern Iraq’s Hakurk and Qandil areas during month. Missiles 18 March landed in Turkey’s Kilis province in south, reportedly fired from Tel Rifat city in Syria’s Aleppo province controlled by Kurdish-led People’s Protection Units (YPG); Turkish defence ministry same day announced retaliatory attacks on surrounding villages. Security forces continued operations against Islamic State (ISIS) operatives; police during month detained over 100 individuals for their alleged ISIS links, including Syrian and Iraqi nationals. In sign of thawing relations between Turkey and Egypt, FM Çavuşoğlu 12 March declared that diplomatic contacts between Turkey and Egypt had started (see Eastern Mediterranean).

Ankara continued with military operations against Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) in northern Iraq and south-eastern Turkey while tensions resurfaced with U.S. Military continued operations against PKK in Turkey’s south east and intensified operations against PKK in northern Iraq. In first ground offensive targeting PKK inside northern Iraq since Sept 2020, security forces 10 Feb commenced operation to end PKK’s presence in northern Iraq’s Gara Mountains area in Duhok province, ostensibly also aimed at rescuing 13 Turkish hostages held by PKK since 2015-2016; clashes with PKK 11 Feb killed three special forces personnel. Authorities 13 Feb announced deaths of all hostages as Ankara and PKK blamed each other. Operation ignited fiery domestic debate in immediate aftermath; opposition called on govt to take responsibility. Meanwhile, govt efforts to criminalise pro-Kurdish opposition Peoples’ Democratic Party persisted; police detained more than 900 members or affiliates of Kurdish political movement throughout Feb. Security forces continued operations against Islamic State (ISIS) operatives; police detained over 70 individuals for alleged ISIS links. Meanwhile, protests held throughout Feb at Boğazici University in Istanbul city against appointment of Melih Bulu as rector, with demonstrations spreading to universities in Izmir city and capital Ankara; over 300 detained by end of Feb, including individuals accused of belonging to terrorist groups; U.S. State Dept 4 Feb expressed concern about detentions of demonstrators and condemned Turkish officials’ anti-LGBTI rhetoric surrounding protests. Relations with U.S. further strained after 54 U.S. senators 10 Feb signed letter urging President Biden to impose severe sanctions upon Ankara for its assertive foreign policy, targeting of U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces in Syria, acquisition of Russian S-400 missile defence system, and worsening human rights and democracy record. Turkish Foreign Ministry 15 Feb summoned U.S. ambassador to protest State Dept’s statement previous day that apparently questioned PKK’s role in death of 13 Turkish hostages in operation in northern Iraq; U.S. Sec of State Antony Blinken same day backtracked, confirming view that “PKK terrorists bear responsibility”.

Military continued operations against Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) in country’s south east and northern Iraq. Military throughout month continued operations targeting PKK militants in rural areas of country’s south east, mainly in Bitlis, Mardin and Diyarbakır provinces; fatalities further decreased this month likely owing to harsh winter conditions in mountainous areas. Military also continued air raids targeting PKK positions in northern Iraq during month. Following recent clashes in northern Iraq between PKK/People’s Protection Unit (YPG) and Kurdish Democratic Party (KDP), Defence Minister Hulusi Akar 19 Jan visited Iraq’s capital Baghdad and later Erbil to meet high-ranking Iraqi and Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) officials; following meeting with KRGPM Masrour Barzani, Akar said: “We should increase our cooperation and together stand against the PKK with determination”, and pledged military support to oust PKK from Sinjar if requested. Govt efforts to criminalise pro-Kurdish opposition Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP) persisted: police detained more than 80 HDP members or affiliates throughout month; notably, Chief Public Prosecutor’s Office 13 Jan reportedly launched proceedings to remove immunity of nine HDP MPs, including party’s co-chair Pervin Buldan, for allegedly inciting violence during 2014 Kobani protests. Govt continued operations targeting Islamic State (ISIS), as police throughout month detained over 180 individuals for their alleged links to ISIS; notably, police operation in Şanlıurfa city 12 Jan apprehended ISIS member who was allegedly involved in ISIS terrorist attacks in Turkey in 2015 (Suruç) and 2016 (Sultanahmet).

Military continued operations against Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) in country’s south east and northern Iraq. Military operations targeting PKK militants in rural areas of country’s south east as well as in northern Iraq continued but at lower intensity owing to harsher winter conditions; military also launched air raids targeting PKK positions in northern Iraq. Govt efforts to criminalise pro-Kurdish opposition Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP) persisted: police detained more than 60 HDP officials and members throughout month. Court 21 Dec sentenced HDP MP Leyla Güven to 22 years in prison for “terrorist propaganda” and “membership to a terrorist organisation”. Govt continued operations targeting Islamic State (ISIS) throughout month. Police detained over 150 individuals for their alleged ISIS links; notably, police operation in capital Istanbul 16 Dec led to detention of 18 ISIS-linked suspects accused of planning attacks on Turkey. Meanwhile, tensions with Greece cooled following late Nov withdrawal of Turkish seismic survey vessel (see Eastern Mediterranean).

Military operations continued against Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) in south-eastern Turkey and northern Iraq; authorities arrested dozens of suspected jihadists. In south east, military carried out small-scale operations concentrated largely in rural areas of Bitlis and Hatay provinces; PKK militants 4 Nov killed three state construction workers in Hakkari’s Derecik district. In northern Iraq, air raids targeting PKK positions continued throughout month; defence ministry 17 Nov announced national intelligence agency “neutralised” İrfan Akcan, PKK’s so-called “customs officer” in Iraq’s Sinjar district, who Turkey claimed was responsible for organising arms transfers between north-eastern Syria and northern Iraq (see Iraq). Govt continued efforts to criminalise pro-Kurdish opposition Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP): police detained more than 100 HDP officials and members during month, including party’s provincial co-chairs in Diyarbakır province. Govt continued operations targeting Islamic State (ISIS) throughout month; notably, police detained over 300 individuals for alleged links to ISIS, including 19 ISIS-linked suspects in Adana city 9 Nov for allegedly plotting attacks against security forces and abductions of politicians, high-ranking bureaucrats, businessmen and tourists. Meanwhile, tensions with Greece and Republic of Cyprus remained high (see Eastern Mediterranean), and parliament 17 Nov overwhelmingly approved bill to deploy troops to Azerbaijan for peacekeeping mission following Azerbaijani-Armenia ceasefire deal (see Nagorno-Karabakh). COVID-19 outbreak reached unprecedented levels and put additional strain on Turkey’s economy; govt 30 Nov announced 31,219 new daily cases.

Military operations against Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) continued in northern Iraq and south/south east Turkey, while Ankara turned focus to Eastern Mediterranean and Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. In Turkey’s south east, military operations focused on rural areas of Şırnak and Hatay; PKK 29 Oct claimed 26 Oct suicide bomb attack that targeted police station in Iskenderun in Hatay province, injuring two; attack coincided with intensified military operations against the PKK in Hatay’s Amanos mountains. Air raids targeting PKK positions in northern Iraq also continued throughout month. Ankara welcomed 9 Oct agreement between Baghdad and Iraq’s Kurdistan Regional Government on security of Sinjar (see Iraq), in hope deal will help remove PKK-affiliated groups competing for control since town was liberated from Islamic State (ISIS) in 2014. Govt also continued efforts to criminalise pro-Kurdish political opposition Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP): police detained more than 100 HDP members and activists throughout month, including Ayhan Bilgen, HDP’s provincial mayor in Kars city, on charges of inciting violence during Oct 2014 Kobani protests; HDP now runs only 5 of 65 municipalities it had won in 2019 local elections. Govt continued operations targeting ISIS: police detained over 150 individuals for alleged links to ISIS, the majority of them foreigners (mostly Syrian and Iraqi nationals). Meanwhile in eastern Mediterranean, renewed drilling activity and military drills fuelled tensions with Greece, despite establishment of NATO deconfliction mechanism 1 Oct (see Eastern Mediterranean). Amid ongoing hostilities between Armenia and Azerbaijan (see Nagorno-Karabakh), Turkish FM Çavuşoğlu 6 Oct visited Baku in show of solidarity and urged Armenia to withdraw from Azerbaijani territory. EU Commission’s 2020 Progress Report on Turkey 6 Oct warned of “serious backsliding in the areas of democracy, rule of law, fundamental rights and the independence of the judiciary”; Turkish MFA same day said report reflected “the EU’s prejudiced, unconstructive and double-standard approach”.

Security operations continued against Kurdistan Worker’s Party (PKK) in south-eastern Turkey and northern Iraq, while Ankara sought regional support against group. In Turkey’s south east, Turkish military continued operations again PKK in rural areas of Mardin, Muş, Bingöl, Hakkari and Van provinces. In northern Iraq, after Turkish military 31 Aug seized control of two strategic locations in the Haftanin region, military conducted 14 reported air raids on PKK positions throughout month. PKK continued to wage attacks against Turkish military: PKK militants 4 Sept assaulted Turkish excavator south of Hantur mountain range and 11 Sept attempted to infiltrate two Turkish military outposts in Haftanin. President Erdoğan and FM Çavuşoğlu 4 Sept received Iraq’s Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) President Nechirvan Barzani in Ankara to discuss “joint fight against PKK” among other issues. Erdoğan and Iranian President Rouhani 8 Sept vowed cooperation against PKK and its Iranian affiliate the Kurdistan Free Life Party. In northern Syria, low-intensity clashes continued between Turkish forces and People’s Protection Units (YPG); YPG-attributed car bomb attack in Syria’s Ras al-Ayn 24 Sept injured 12 civilians. Russian-Turkish ceasefire held in Idlib despite strains (see Syria). Govt continued moves toward criminalising members of pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP); police detained more than 130 HDP members or sympathisers throughout month; detention of 82 individuals and activists, including HDP co-mayor, over their alleged role in the Oct 2014 Kobani protests drew international criticism. Govt continued with operations against Islamic State (ISIS) in Turkey: security personnel reportedly detained over 150 individuals with suspected ISIS links throughout month. Defence ministry 28 Sept announced capture of alleged al-Qaeda affiliate Islom Saydalimov in the southern Hatay province. Amid ongoing tensions between Turkey and Greece over drilling activities in eastern Mediterranean, both sides expressed willingness to defuse tensions through talks (see Cyprus).

Turkish military continued operations against Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) in northern Iraq in rural areas of Turkey’s south east, while tensions rose in eastern Mediterranean. In northern Iraq, Turkish military reportedly seized control of Jaldah mountain as well as the areas of Mamand and Kohareş located in Haftanin region and conducted 15 air raids on PKK positions throughout month, including drone strike 11 Aug that reportedly killed several PKK militants and two Iraqi army officers in the Sidakan area in north-eastern Iraq (see Iraq); in retaliation, PKK 17 Aug announced it had shot down Turkish helicopter, which was unconfirmed. In south east, amid small scale clashes with PKK militants, security forces 12 Aug launched major anti-PKK operation in Amanos mountains in southern border province of Hatay; operation is fourth of its kind announced since 20 July. In northern Syria, low-intensity clashes continued between Turkish security forces and People’s Protection Units (YPG). Govt continued moves toward criminalising members of Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP); police detained at least 95 HDP members throughout month. Govt continued crackdown on Islamic State (ISIS) in Turkey: security personnel reportedly detained 83 individuals with suspected ISIS links throughout month. Security forces 13 Aug in Bursa province’s İnegöl district detained foreign national who illegally entered Turkey from Syria reportedly plotting suicide attack. Amid continued Turkish drilling in disputed maritime areas in eastern Mediterranean and reported collision 12 Aug between Greek frigate and Turkish vessel, tensions rose with Greece and Republic of Cyprus (see Cyprus). Following visit to Athens, German FM Heiko Maas 25 Aug visited Ankara to help defuse tensions; Turkish FM Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu said Turkey is ready for dialogue without any preconditions but talks must not include Greek preconditions either. Following the conclusions of the informal EU foreign council 28 Aug, Turkish MFA released a statement saying the EU has no authority to criticise Turkey’s hydrocarbon activities within its continental shelf and asking EU countries to refrain from supporting “Greece’s maximalist claims that violate international law”. COVID-19 cases began to resurge throughout month with 1,200-1,500 cases reported daily since the start of August.

Military operations against Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) continued in northern Iraq and south-eastern Turkey, while govt intensified efforts to criminalise pro-Kurdish political opposition; tensions with Greece persisted. In northern Iraq, Turkey expanded military operations against Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) while Iraqi President Salih 16 July called for international stance against Turkey’s violations of Iraqi territorial sovereignty (see Iraq). In Turkey’s south east, security forces continued operations against PKK; PKK reportedly launched attacks 17 July in Hakkari-Şemdinli, 20 July in Hakkari-Çukurca and 26 July in Nusaybin city,Mardin province. 20 July marked 5th anniversary of ceasefire breakdown between PKK and Turkey; since then conflict has claimed at least 5,000 fatalities in Turkey and northern Iraq. In northern Syria, low-intensity clashes continued between Turkish security forces and People’s Protection Units (YPG) (see Syria). Govt intensified steps toward criminalising members of Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP): over 100 pro-Kurdish HDP members were detained during month; out of 65 municipalities HDP won in March 2019 elections, 51 now run by state-appointed “trustees”. Govt continued crackdown on Islamic State (ISIS) in Turkey: security personnel reportedly detained over 90 individuals with suspected ISIS links throughout month. Tensions persisted with Greece over maritime boundaries: following late June phone call between Turkish and Greek leaders, Turkish FM 14 July said “we can solve these issues through dialogue”. However, Turkish drilling activity continued, prompting Athens 21 July to lodge diplomatic protest with Ankara (see Cyprus); Greek military recorded near-daily airspace violations by Turkish aircrafts during first three weeks of July. In meeting with EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell in Ankara, Turkish FM 6 July said Turkey will not hesitate to reciprocate new European measures against it for Eastern Mediterranean drilling; Borrell said EU-Turkey relations are not “passing through the best moment”. Following Turkish-backed forces advance in Libya, Turkish delegation 3 July met Libyan PM Fayez al-Sarraj in Tripoli and visited military training sites; Ankara 5 July announced that al Jufra airbase and Sirte were Turkey’s next targets (see Libya).

Tensions continued between Turkey, Greece and EU in Eastern Mediterranean; security forces stepped up offensives against Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) in northern Iraq; and military operations continued in north-eastern Syria and south-eastern Turkey. In northern Iraq, Turkey 14-15 June heavily bombed PKK positions around Sinjar and Qandil mountains ahead of ground offensive on 17 June, ostensibly in response to uptick in PKK attacks on Turkish military in region; Defence Ministry 28 June said one Turkish soldier killed and PKK fighter “neutralised” same day. In Turkey’s south east, military continued operations against PKK, particularly in rural areas of Şırnak, Hakkari and Bitlis; PKK-attributed roadside bomb 18 June killed four state construction workers in Şırnak’s Silopi district. Govt continued efforts to criminalise pro-Kurdish political opposition; security forces detained over 60 pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP) members. Parliament 4 June stripped two HDP MPs of immunity after Supreme Court upheld conviction for “membership of an armed terrorist organisation”; HDP 15 June organised march on capital to protest but faced clampdown by Turkish police. In north-eastern Syria, low-intensity clashes continued between Turkish security forces and People’s Protection Units (YPG) (see Syria). In Libya, where Tripoli-based govt made significant military gains during month, Turkish FM 10 June labelled Egypt’s 7 June call for ceasefire “stillborn” and called for talks under UN auspices. High-level Turkish delegation 17 June visited Tripoli, Libya, reportedly to discuss offensive and business contracts (see Libya). Meanwhile, amid rising tensions in Eastern Mediterranean as Turkish drilling continues in maritime areas claimed by Republic of Cyprus (see Cyprus), Turkish military 11 June prevented Greek vessel, operating under EU naval mission enforcing Libya arms embargo, from inspecting cargo ship bound to Libya from Turkey, raising further tensions with Greece and EU. Military 12 June conducted naval and air exercises in Eastern Mediterranean, and next day held joint submarine drills with Italy near Libya’s coast.  Govt continued crackdown on Islamic State (ISIS) in Turkey: security personnel throughout month reportedly detained over 100 individuals with suspected ISIS links, including 18 June arrest of high-ranking ISIS member in Gaziantep.

Hostilities between Turkish military and Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) in northern Iraq intensified, while fatalities from PKK conflict in Turkey’s south east decreased slightly. In northern Iraq, Turkish military conducted ten air raids targeting PKK, eight more than in April; PKK 14 May attacked Turkish base in Dahuk province with no reported casualties. Turkish air raids targeted PKK militants in northern Iraq’s Sulaymaniyah province 27 May (see Iraq). In Turkey’s south east, military continued small-scale ground operations targeting PKK in rural areas; PKK 14 May reportedly killed two aid workers in Van province, authorities arrested at least 38 suspects in response. During visit to Şırnak’s Cizre district for opening of military command centre, Interior Minister Süleyman Soylu reiterated Turkey’s determination to pursue hardline policies, saying “this year we will either be present there [referring to south-eastern Cudi, Gabar, Besta, Kel Mehmet and Kato areas] or die”. Govt continued pressure on pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP). During month, interior ministry removed five more elected HDP mayors from office (two province, three district mayors). Out of 65 municipalities HDP won in March 2019 elections, 45 now run by state-appointed “trustees”. Police 20 May also reportedly detained in capital Ankara at least 18 HDP members, including HDP’s Ankara provincial head, protesting govt crackdown. Dozens of HDP members and representatives of pro-Kurdish women’s rights groups 22 May detained in Diyarbakır. In northern Syria, Turkish military 3 May reportedly returned fire at People’s Protection Units (YPG) militants in Turkish-controlled Tel Abyad and blocked three YPG militants attempting to “infiltrate” “Operation Peace Spring” area; Defence ministry 30 May said security forces “neutralised” five YPG fighters who attempted to infiltrate into same area. In Idlib, Turkey and Russia continued joint patrols in effort to uphold their fragile March ceasefire; improvised attack 27 May killed Turkish soldier during patrol along M4 highway (see Syria). Foreign ministry 10 May warned Libyan Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar against attacking diplomatic missions in Libyan capital Tripoli after Haftar-aligned forces previous day shelled areas close to Turkish and Italian embassies (see Libya). Detentions of fourteen Islamic State suspects reported this month.

Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) intensified attacks in south east while Turkish military targeted PKK within Turkey and in northern Iraq. PKK launched attacks on state-contracted workers in Nusaybin city 3 April, Kulp district 8 April, and Silopi city 14 April. Turkish military continued small-scale ground operations against PKK in rural areas of south east and carried out two air raids on PKK in northern Iraq, including airstrikes 15 April destroyed PKK base south of Qandil and armed drone attack same day targeted the Makhmur camp south west of Erbil. Within Turkey, prosecution on terrorism-related charges continued of eight pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP) mayors who govt dismissed in March. In north east Syria, Turkish military targeted Kurdish-led People’s Protection Units (YPG) militants; YPG-attributed car bomb attack in Afrin on 28 April killed at least 42 civilians (see Syria). In Syria’s Idlib province, rebels continued to oppose fragile March Moscow-Ankara ceasefire agreement; Turkish security forces 13 April dispersed sit-in protests, apparently organised by jihadist coalition Hei’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), aimed at halting joint Turkish-Russian patrols. In response, HTS briefly abducted Turkey-backed rebel fighters. Nonetheless, Russia and Turkey 28 April conducted sixth joint patrol in area. As conflict in Libya continued to escalate, Turkey stepped up military support to Tripoli-based Government of National Accord; Turkish F16 fighter jets 18 April carried out first ever military exercise over Misrata (see Libya). Detentions of Islamic State (ISIS) suspects decreased, with only twelve individuals with suspected ISIS links detained during month, including six foreigners. Concerns grew over potential impact of COVID-19 on vulnerable Syrian refugee population in Turkey, as well as strain on economy.

President Erdoğan reached deal with Russian President Putin to cease hostilities in Syria’s Idlib province, and govt continued military operations against Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) in south east Turkey and northern Iraq. Erdoğan and Putin 5 March agreed temporary ceasefire deal to end hostilities in Syria’s Idlib province (see Syria). Protesters 15 March blocked joint Turkish-Russian patrol along M4 highway in Idlib province; Turkish and Russian media accused militant group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham of mobilising local population to obstruct patrol. Govt 19 March announced deaths of two Turkish soldiers in rocket attack by “radical groups” on M4 highway. In PKK conflict, military continued small-scale ground operations in south east Turkey and operations against PKK in northern Iraq. PKK 31 March attacked gas pipeline near Turkey’s border with Iran; Iran said attack halted flow of gas from Iran. Govt maintained efforts to criminalise pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP); authorities 9 March sentenced former HDP mayor of Diyarbakır to nine years imprisonment on PKK-related terrorism charges. Authorities 23 March dismissed eight HDP co-mayors. Turkey and EU engaged at highest level to resolve spat following Ankara’s decision to allow migrants to cross its borders to Greece. Govt sustained crackdown on individuals with suspected links to Islamic State (ISIS); police detained at least 28 people in March with alleged ties to ISIS, including Turkish and foreign nationals.

In Syria’s Idlib province, fighting escalated between Turkish troops and Syrian rebels on one side and Russian-backed regime forces on other, leaving at least 54 Turkish troops dead; Turkey continued to ship arms to Libya and military maintained low-level operations against Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK). In Syria, as Russian-backed regime offensive to take Idlib province continued to drive displaced people toward Turkish border, Turkey reinforced its troops. Syrian regime attacks and Russian airstrikes left eighteen Turkish soldiers and three civilian contractors dead early Feb. Following killing of seven Turkish soldiers and one contractor 3 Feb, President Erdoğan gave Syrian regime forces until end of Feb to withdraw behind Turkish observation posts and threatened direct military action. Russian FM 19 Feb announced failure of Russia-Turkey talks to reach agreement over Idlib. After Turkish-backed Syrian rebels 26 Feb recaptured strategic town of Saraqib, Erdoğan same day vowed to “liberate” remaining Turkish observation posts encircled by Syrian regime. Suspected Syrian regime airstrike (possibly backed by Russia) 27 Feb killed at least 33 Turkish troops in Idlib province; Turkey said that in subsequent days it targeted hundreds of regime soldiers in retaliatory strikes. Turkish official 28 Feb announced Ankara would no longer prevent refugees in Turkey from entering Europe; Greek police 29 Feb used tear gas to disperse group of people attempting to cross Greek-Turkish border, flow of people to Greek islands also increased. As Turkey continued to ship military equipment to Libya to support Tripoli-based Govt of National Accord against Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar’s forces, Turkey 18 Feb criticised EU foreign ministers’ decision previous day to launch naval mission to enforce UN arms embargo on grounds that Haftar’s allies would still be able to deliver support by land and air. Erdoğan 25 Feb confirmed deaths of two Turkish soldiers in Libya. Military continued small-scale operations against PKK militants in south east and reportedly carried out airstrike targeting PKK militants in northern Iraq.

Fatalities in conflict between govt and Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) remained low while security situation in Turkish-controlled territory in Syria continued to be volatile, and parliament approved military deployment to Libya raising stakes in eastern Mediterranean. Harsh winter conditions resulted in fewer casualties in PKK conflict in south east. Interior Ministry 11 Jan announced completion of Operation Kiran after 11th phase of military operation against PKK. Military 10 Jan launched Operation Kapan in attempt to clear out militants from rural areas of southern Hatay, south-eastern Mardin and Batman provinces. President Erdoğan 8 Jan met Russian President Putin in Turkey to discuss military situation in Syria; following meeting, Putin 10 Jan announced ceasefire in Syria’s Idlib province. Temporary ceasefire failed to halt Syrian govt attacks there. Erdoğan 29 Jan criticised Russia for not abiding by its commitments under Sochi and Astana accords in Idlib region. UN same day said violence in Idlib province had displaced nearly 390,000 in past two months. Amid rising number of displaced persons, Erdoğan 31 Jan expressed concern at new threats near Turkey’s border and said Turkey ready to take necessary steps including using military force in Syria. In Turkey-controlled area of north east Syria, Defence Ministry 8 and 16 Jan said seven Turkish soldiers had died in car bomb attacks attributed to Kurdish-led People’s Protection Units. Parliament 2 Jan authorised troop deployment to Libya to support Tripoli-based Govt of National Accord; military has reportedly deployed 80 Turkish officers for training and coordination purposes as well as some 2,000 allied Syrian fighters. Erdoğan 14 Jan vowed Turkey would not refrain from “teaching Haftar a lesson” if latter’s forces maintained offensive on Tripoli (see Libya). FM Çavuşoğlu 18 Jan accused Greece of sabotaging efforts to bring peace to Libya following 17 Jan visit by Haftar to Athens in response to its exclusion from 19 Jan Berlin Conference on Libya; accusation comes amid rising tensions between Turkey and Greece particularly over Turkey-Libya maritime deal (see Cyprus).

Military operations against Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) reduced in intensity in country’s south east and northern Iraq, relations soured with U.S. over further sanctions, and were strained with Russia over Idlib escalation. Fatalities in PKK conflict remained low; security forces focused operations in Tunceli province in south east and maintained air raids and land operations against PKK militants in northern Iraq. Govt sustained efforts to criminalise pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP). Besides continued arrests/detentions of HDP officials and members, eight more trustees were appointed to HDP-run municipalities during month (32 out of 69 municipalities HDP won in March 2019 are now run by trustees). Cooperation continued with Russia in north east (NE) Syria, but was strained over escalation in north west (NW): Turkish defence ministry 8 Dec announced deal with Russia to connect areas under control of Turkish-backed Syrian forces to Syrian regime-controlled power plant and demilitarise M4 highway across northern Syria, while Turkish forces continued joint patrols with Russian military units in NE Syria. Ankara reacted harshly to intensified regime and Russian military operations in Syria’s NW which displaced thousands. The fourteenth round of Syria talks with Turkey, Russia and Iran was held in Kazakhstan 10 Dec (see Syria). Relations with U.S deteriorated as U.S. Congress 17 Dec passed National Defense Authorization Act banning transfer of U.S. F-35 fighter jets to Turkey. Senate 12 Dec passed previously blocked resolution recognising mass killings of Armenians in Ottoman Empire as genocide. President Erdoğan 15 Dec threatened to shut down İncirlik Air Base and Kürecik Radar Station used by U.S and NATO forces. Govt continued crackdown on Islamic State (ISIS) networks; police detained over 100 suspected ISIS-linked individuals in Dec including Turkish and foreign nationals. Relations with EU still strained particularly over Cyprus/East Med gas drilling. Following controversial maritime border deal between Turkey and Libya’s Govt of National Accord (GNA) in Nov, parliamentary debate took place 30 Dec on bill that (if approved 2 Jan) would authorise Turkey to send troops to Libya in support of GNA (see Cyprus and Libya).

Govt continued criminalising pro-Kurdish opposition and intensified crackdown on suspected Islamic State (ISIS) operatives, while military continued operations against Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) in south east Turkey and northern Iraq, and began joint patrols with Russia in parts of border areas in Syria’s north east. Fatalities in PKK conflict decreased amid harsher winter conditions; Turkish military 13 Nov launched “Kıran-6” operation against PKK in Van, Hakkari and Şırnak provinces; air raids targeting PKK militants in northern Iraq also continued. Govt intensified efforts to criminalise pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP), replacing several more HDP co-mayors with state-appointed trustees. In north east Syria, Turkish and Russian troops 1 Nov carried out first join patrol in designated border areas; as of end-Nov, twelve joint patrols were carried out. Two Turkish soldiers killed by mortar fire in north east Syria 27 Nov. FM Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu 18 Nov threatened further military action if U.S. and Russia fail to ensure full withdrawal of Kurdish-led People’s Protection Units (YPG) from agreed areas (see Syria). President Erdoğan 13 Nov met with U.S. President Trump in Washington DC in attempt to address tensions caused by Turkey’s incursion in Syria, Ankara’s acquisition of Russian S-400 missile systems and other points of contention. While both sides expressed intent to improve relations, hardly any concrete progress was marked. Following Oct assassination of ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi near border in Syria, govt redoubled crackdown on ISIS networks in Turkey. Turkish forces captured sister of al-Baghdadi in Azaz in north east Syria 4 Nov before arresting 25 other close relatives in Turkey mid-month. More than 100 individuals suspected of ISIS links were also detained during month, while govt intensified repatriation efforts of foreign nationals with ISIS ties. U.S. 19 Nov imposed sanctions on three Turkey-based companies and two Turkish citizens for allegedly providing financial and logistical support to ISIS.

Turkish military incursion into north east Syria increased tensions with Kurdish movement in Turkey and with allies, heightening concerns it could fuel Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) insurgency and enable resurgence of Islamic State (ISIS) threat. Turkish forces 9 Oct launched “Operation Peace Spring” against Kurdish-led People’s Protection Units (YPG) in north east Syria, following phone call between President Erdoğan and U.S. President Trump, and U.S. announcement that it would remove its forces from border areas (see Syria). Stated goals of Turkish operation, conducted alongside Sunni rebel Syrian National Army proxies, included removing YPG from border area (some 30/32km by 440km), combatting “terrorists” and establishing “safe zone” for resettling Syrian refugees; ten Turkish soldiers reported killed in operation by end-Oct, and twenty civilians in Turkish border towns by YPG shelling/shooting. U.S. 15 Oct also briefly imposed sanctions calling for Ankara to halt incursion; Ankara and Washington 17 Oct agreed deal for Turkey to halt offensive for 120 hours to allow YPG forces to withdraw. Erdoğan and Russian President Putin 22 Oct reached agreement giving YPG forces until 29 Oct to withdraw 30km from border to create “safe zone”, with Russian and Syrian govt forces facilitating withdrawal of YPG fighters in border areas outside Turkish control; Turkish military with its Sunni rebel proxies now controls 140km along border from west of Tel Abyad to Ras al-Ayn. International community strongly condemned Turkish incursion, with several European states and Canada suspending arms exports. Military operations inside Turkey against PKK tapered off slightly following start of Syria incursion, while air and land operations against PKK in northern Iraq continued. Govt maintained efforts to criminalise Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP) through ongoing detentions and arrests of HDP figures on terrorism-related charges, particularly around launch of Syria incursion which prompted HDP-organised protests. Police continued crackdown on suspected ISIS operatives. Erdoğan condemned U.S. House of Representatives resolution 30 Oct recognising early twentieth century mass killings of Armenians in Ottoman Empire as genocide.

Intensity of conflict between military and Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) in south east rose slightly, air raids and land operations targeting PKK militants and positions in northern Iraq continued, joint Turkey-U.S. patrols got underway in north east Syria, and security forces detained prominent Islamic State (ISIS) militants reportedly planning attacks. Amid ongoing clashes between military and PKK, concentrated in Hakkari, Şırnak and Van provinces, roadside IED attack 12 Sept killed seven in Diyarbakır province’s Kulp district. PKK 20 Sept claimed responsibility for attack, saying the individuals targeted were working as informants for state against PKK; attack triggered wave of small-scale anti-PKK protests across south-eastern towns 16 Sept. Govt continued efforts to criminalise and delegitimise pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party. In north-eastern (NE) Syria, Turkish and U.S. forces began joint military operations to set up “safe zone”, carrying out first ground patrol around Tel Abyad 8 Sept. On various occasions during month, Turkish officials threatened to carry out offensive against Kurdish-led People’s Protection Units (YPG) in NE Syria if U.S. fails to keep promises to create “safe zone”; Turkish military reinforcement along border with NE Syria continued (see Syria). Erdoğan 5 Sept requested more support from EU countries both for Syrian refugees in Turkey and to meet needs within Syria of those displaced from Idlib, threatening to open Turkey’s borders to Europe if EU fails to increase assistance. As crackdown on ISIS operatives continued, including arrest of senior ISIS figure and two others reportedly planning attack in Istanbul, ISIS circulated several threat messages across some Turkish provinces pledging allegiance to al-Baghdadi and insinuating future attacks.

Govt kept up military operations against Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) and intensified crackdown on people affiliated with Kurdish movement. In south east, govt launched operations against PKK in Şırnak, Hakkari and Van provinces 19 Aug and in Mardin, Şırnak and Batman provinces 28 Aug. Turkish media 8 Aug reported that security forces had “neutralised” two PKK militants allegedly responsible for 17 July killing of Turkish diplomat in Iraqi Kurdistan’s capital Erbil. Govt increased pressure on members of pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP): authorities 15 Aug arrested 21 HDP members in cities of Mardin, Şırnak and Izmir; 19 Aug dismissed newly-elected metropolitan mayors of majority Kurdish provinces Diyarbakır,Mardin and Van on grounds that they were affiliated with terrorist organisations and replaced them with state-appointed trustees; same day detained 418 people affiliated with Kurdish movement in 29 provinces. Authorities 22 Aug detained seventeen in Ankara and 27 in Izmir during protests over removal of Kurdish mayors. Batman province governor’s office removed four elected neighbourhood heads from their posts “due to investigations into them and trials they face on terrorism charges”. In north-western Syria, as regime forces threatened to take Turkish observation post in northern Hama province, Turkey 19 Aug sent military convoy to support rebels; Syrian regime carried out airstrikes targeting convoy, killing three Syrian civilians (see Syria). U.S. and Turkey 7 Aug said they had reached agreement on general framework for way forward in north-eastern Syria, despite continued disagreement over depth of proposed safe zone along Turkey-Syria border and composition of troops that would man it. Turkey and U.S. defence officials 12 Aug started to establish joint operation centre in Şanlıurfa to coordinate safe zone preparations. In Istanbul, authorities 1 Aug said they had transferred to refugee camps 12,474 irregular migrants for deportation and 2,630 unregistered Syrians 12-31 July; interior minister 20 Aug extended to 30 Oct deadline for refugees to leave Istanbul and return to places where they registered. Authorities 8 Aug detained suspected Syrian suicide bomber in Şanlıurfa’s central square; 6-15 Aug arrested 48 suspected Islamic State (ISIS)-linked individuals in Hatay, Konya, Izmir and Adana’s Yüreğir district.

Fighting continued between security forces and Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), tensions rose between Turkish citizens and Syrian refugees, and govt’s purchase of Russian missile defence system continued to fuel tensions with U.S.. Military continued to carry out air and land operations against PKK in Turkey’s south east and northern Iraq; senior PKK figures were among members killed. In Iraqi Kurdistan’s regional capital Erbil, unidentified assailants 17 July killed two people, including Turkish diplomat; Turkish state blamed attack on PKK while PKK leadership denied direct involvement. Authorities maintained crackdown on members of pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP). Following 29 June violent protests against Syrian refugees in Istanbul, authorities 2 July detained sixteen people for inciting hatred on social media. Istanbul governor’s office 22 July set 20 Aug as deadline for Syrian refugees to return to Turkish province in which they registered or face forced return. Syrian opposition activists 22 July reported that Turkish authorities had in July deported 1,000 Syrian refugees to Syria’s Idlib province; Turkish govt 31 July denied reports. Islamic State (ISIS) 10 July released propaganda video in Turkish threatening Turkey and U.S.; authorities 9-18 July arrested 34 suspected ISIS members in Istanbul and Adana, including alleged emir of ISIS’s Turkey branch. After Russia 12 July began delivery of its S-400 surface-to-air missile defence system to Turkey, U.S. President Trump 16 July banned Turkey from buying American F-35 fighter jets. U.S. administration and Congress deliberated over set of sanctions to impose on Turkey under Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA). In response to Turkey’s continued efforts to locate and extract hydrocarbons off Cyprus in East Mediterranean, EU’s Committee of Permanent Representatives (COREPER) 15 July imposed sanctions on Turkey including cut in pre-accession assistance for 2020 by €145.8mn citing Ankara’s violation of Republic of Cyprus’s sovereignty (see Cyprus).

Main opposition party’s candidate won re-run of Istanbul mayoral elections, military continued operations against Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) insurgency, and tensions increased with U.S. over Ankara’s purchase of Russian missile systems. Opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) candidate Ekrem İmamoğlu won 23 June re-run of Istanbul’s mayoral election with 54%; following appeal by ruling party Justice and Development Party (AKP), High Election Board had cancelled results of first vote in March, which opposition won with 48.8%. AKP’s candidate Binali Yildirim and President Erdoğan conceded defeat. Military continued to carry out operations against PKK in south east, along Black Sea in north, and near Iran border in east: insurgents killed fifteen security force members in June and two civilians 10 June. Crackdown continued against members of pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP) and activists supporting Kurdish movement. In northern Iraq, Turkish warplanes hit PKK targets in several regions. In north west Syria, Turkey and Russia 12 June announced they had brokered ceasefire between Syrian govt and opposition forces in Idlib, but fighting continued. Next day Syrian pro-govt forces attacked Turkish observation post, injuring three soldiers; followed by 27 June attack, killing one Turkish soldier (see Syria). President Erdoğan reiterated 4 June that govt would go ahead with purchase of S-400 missile defence systems from Moscow. In response, U.S. 7 June said it would “suspend indefinitely” training of Turkish pilots on F-35 fighter jets and discontinue F-35 material deliveries unless Ankara cancelled deal. Erdoğan met U.S. and Russian presidents during G20 summit in Japan 28-29 June and discussed Turkey’s purchase of Russian S-400s. Court in Istanbul 25 June released from house arrest U.S. Consulate employee being tried on terrorism charges. Authorities 21 May-27 June detained 119, and arrested at least 35 suspected Islamic State (ISIS) members in more than ten different cities, including Mersin, Adana, Kilis, Urfa. Tensions rose between Turkey and Republic of Cyprus over gas exploration off island (see Cyprus).

Military operations against Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) and cross-border air raids against targets in northern Iraq continued, electoral board ordered re-run of Istanbul local election in which ruling party had been defeated, and U.S.-Turkey relations remained strained over purchase of Russian missiles. Fatalities from security operations against PKK in south east increased slightly. Authorities allowed jailed PKK leader Abdullah Öcalan to meet his lawyers for first time in eight years 2 May; Öcalan released statement calling for thousands of Kurdish movement supporters on hunger strike to end strike, which they did. Authorities 16 May lifted ban on lawyer and family visits to Öcalan. Turkish military 27 May launched “Operation Claw” carrying out land and air raids against PKK targets in northern Iraq’s Hakurk region. High Election Board 6 May cancelled 31 March mayoral polls in Istanbul and ordered re-run on 23 June due to alleged irregularities, annulling victory of opposition Republican People’s Party’s (CHP); caused small-scale protests in various districts of Istanbul. Ankara’s purchase of Russian S-400 air defence missile system continued to strain relations with Washington. President Erdoğan 18 May proposed to Russia co-production of S-500s once delivery of S-400s is complete. Authorities 17-18 May detained eleven suspected Islamic State (ISIS) members in Konya and Mersin, and arrested nine suspected ISIS members in Şanlıurfa 27 May.

Security forces continued operations against the Kurdistan Worker’s Party (PKK) in south east Turkey and northern Iraq, while contested results for Istanbul in 31 March local elections led to increased domestic tensions, and relations with U.S. remained strained over purchase of Russian air defence systems. In south east, operations against PKK continued: four Turkish soldiers were killed in PKK attack on military base in Hakkâri 19 April. Turkish military responded with ground operations in south east and air raids into northern Iraq targeting PKK. Tensions followed 31 March local elections as ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) contested opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP)’s narrow victory in Istanbul, alleging election irregularities. High Election Board (YSK) partial recount resulted in narrowed margin of victory for CHP; AKP and MHP also demanded re-run of Istanbul vote. In majority-Kurdish south east, AKP increased its overall vote share especially in rural areas, while pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP) largely maintained or increased its votes in urban areas. YSK 10 April refused to grant mandates to HDP mayors-elect in six district municipalities in Erzurum, Van and Diyarbakır, and two town municipalities in Kars and Siirt, allowing AKP runners-up to assume mandates. In Ankara, mob 21 April attacked CHP leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu during the funeral of a Turkish soldier; police briefly detained nine people, including an AKP member who was seen punching Kılıçdaroğlu. Meeting with Russian President Putin in Moscow 8 April, President Erdoğan announced imminent delivery of Russian S-400 air defence systems, also discussing situation in northern Syria’s Idlib province and Russia-Turkey Investment Fund. This followed U.S.’s 2 April pledge to suspend transfer of F-35 fighter jets to Turkey, amid U.S. warnings that S-400s are not compatible NATO systems.

Operations against Kurdistan Worker’s Party (PKK) continued in south east and in northern Iraq, authorities maintained crackdown on pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP) and Kurdish movement sympathisers, and tensions increased with U.S. over Syria and Ankara’s purchase of Russian missile systems. In south east, security forces continued operations against PKK, with casualties remaining low. Turkish military cross-border air raids 3-6 March targeted PKK positions in northern Iraq’s Haftanin and Hakurk areas. Govt crackdown on HDP and its municipal affiliate continued ahead of 31 March municipal elections. Early results 31 March suggested President Erdoğan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP) lost mayoral race in Ankara and Istanbul to opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP), despite AKP’s electoral alliance securing 51.63% of national vote; pro-Kurdish HDP retained key strongholds in south east, including Diyarbakır, Mardin, and Van, while losing Şırnak, Ağrı, and Bitlis. Strains on U.S.-Turkey relations increased: following Washington’s 22 Feb announcement to maintain residual contingent of forces in support of Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) in northern Syria, Erdoğan 4 March reiterated intention to conduct Turkish military operation to expel YPG from Syria’s north east. Following meetings with U.S. officials in Ankara, Erdoğan 6 March refused to cancel purchase of Russian S-400 anti-aircraft missile system and expressed interest in procuring anti-ballistic S-500 missiles from Moscow at later date; U.S. 9 March warned deal would undermine military cooperation within NATO and jeopardise delivery of F-35s and Patriot missiles to Turkey. Counterterrorism efforts against jihadist cells and foreign terrorist fighters continued; authorities 13 March arrested fourteen foreign nationals in Ankara and a Danish citizen in Bursa, all suspected Islamic State (ISIS) members.

Intensity of Turkish military’s security operations against Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) in south east remained low with few fatalities, while air raids by Turkish military targeting PKK positions in northern Iraq continued. Ahead of 31 March municipal elections, govt intensified crackdown on pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP) members and suspected PKK sympathisers. Court 14 Feb sentenced two HDP MPs to fifteen and eighteen months in prison over terrorism charges. Differences between Ankara and Washington over U.S. withdrawal and “safe zone” in north east Syria (see Syria) continued; President Erdoğan 5 Feb criticised U.S. for delays in withdrawal of militants belonging to the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) from U.S.-patrolled town of Manbij and for lack of clarity on safe zone; also renewed threats to carry out military offensive in area to clear YPG, and vowed to set up “terror-free zone”. Erdoğan 14 Feb discussed situation in Syria’s Idlib province with Iranian and Russian presidents in Sochi, Russia, stressing that joint operations by Turkey, Russia and Iran against jihadist alliance Hei’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) possible if needed. Inside Turkey, detentions of alleged Islamic State (ISIS) and HTS-linked individuals continued, including armed forces’ capture of four ISIS suspects 3 Feb and four HTS suspects 7 Feb attempting to enter Syria.

Intensity of military’s security operations against Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) in south east remained low with few fatalities, while deadly Turkish air raids against PKK in northern Iraq prompted angry response by alleged PKK-sympathising Iraqi group. Major cross-border air raid in northern Iraq 20 Jan reportedly killed six; sources close to PKK claimed they were civilians, Turkish army said they were PKK militants. Hundreds of protesters 26 Jan stormed Turkish military base in Iraq’s Dohuk province; at least one killed and ten injured in clashes. Crackdown on individuals allegedly linked to PKK continued across Turkey. Authorities 12 Jan allowed imprisoned PKK leader Abdullah Öcalan to be visited by his brother Mehmet for first time in two and a half years. Hundreds of figures from the People’s Democratic Party (HDP)’s municipal affiliate party remain imprisoned ahead of March municipal elections. Strains in Turkish-U.S. relationship continued following U.S. statements that its planned withdrawal from Syria was conditional on Turkish guarantee not to attack “Kurdish fighters” (see Syria). Ankara expressed anger at remarks, renewing threat to carry out military offensive in north east Syria and reiterating Turkey’s main goal to clear “terrorist groups”. President Erdoğan and U.S. President Trump 14 Jan discussed possible 20-mile “safe zone” in north east Syria; following 16 Jan Islamic State (ISIS)-claimed bomb in Manbij that killed sixteen including four U.S. soldiers, Erdoğan said Turkey would start military takeover of Manbij if U.S. did not protect its borders via safe zone. Erdoğan and Russian President Putin met in Moscow 23 Jan; agreed on closer military cooperation in Syria’s Idlib, however Putin reaffirmed Moscow’s support for dialogue between Damascus and Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). As alternative to U.S. safe zone, Putin also said 1998 Adana agreement between Turkey and Syria could serve as basis of Ankara’s efforts to secure its borders and “fight terrorism”. Inside Turkey, security forces 13 Jan conducted first crackdown against jihadist alliance Hei’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) – which currently controls most of Idlib zone – targeting “civilian” cells in Adana, Istanbul and Ankara allegedly providing support to militants in Syria.

President Erdoğan said Ankara would postpone planned military offensive against the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in north-eastern Syria following unexpected U.S. announcement of withdrawal of troops from Syria. Following series of statements by U.S. officials during month suggesting U.S. was determined to continue backing SDF in Syria, Erdoğan 12 Dec said Ankara would launch an offensive against SDF east of Euphrates River “within days”. Announcement initially prompted U.S. to voice “grave concern” over risks for U.S. military personnel; then on 19 Dec, U.S. President Trump unexpectedly announced full and rapid withdrawal of U.S. troops from Syria, following call with Erdoğan during which they also agreed on sale of U.S. Patriot air defence system to Turkey. Erdoğan 21 Dec said Turkey would postpone the announced offensive against the SDF “for a while”; also said relations with U.S. now at “desired level”. Despite statement, Syrian Observatory for Human Rights 23 Dec reported Turkish military build-up at front line of SDF-controlled town of Manbij; Syria’s military 28 Dec entered Manbij area amid calls from Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) for help against threat of attack by Turkey. In Turkey’s south east – likely due to harsh winter conditions – clashes between military and Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) saw a downturn, while Turkish air raids against PKK in northern Iraq intensified. Turkish military carried out five major cross-border air raids against PKK in northern Iraq; Iraqi authorities 14 Dec summoned Turkish ambassador in Baghdad to protest airstrikes; Turkey 15 Dec said it remained determined to continue cross-border “anti-terror” operations against PKK in Iraq’s Sinjar region. Efforts for constructive engagement between EU and Turkey continued with EU foreign policy chief Mogherini’s late Nov visit to Ankara resulting in some progress toward visa liberalisation.

Month saw continued security operations against Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) in south east Turkey and northern Iraq, and crackdown on Kurdish movement representatives and individuals suspected to have links to PKK as well as human rights activists; tensions in Turkey-U.S. relations still run high, though month marked cooperation in some areas. Military operations against PKK in south east saw fatalities slightly higher than previous month, concentrated in rural areas of Şırnak and Hakkari. Interior ministry 2 Nov announced police in Oct had detained 687 suspects and arrested 125 for alleged links to PKK. Authorities detained at least 40 members of pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP) and sister Democratic Regions’ Party (DBP) in Mersin, Batman, Ankara, Izmir and Istanbul. U.S. embassy 6 Nov announced a $12mn reward for information on three leading PKK figures; govt called decision “positive, but belated”, signifying effort to “mask” U.S. support for Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) in Syria. 26 Nov establishment of five U.S. military observation posts in north-east Syria raised concern in Ankara over U.S. backing for YPG. Increased U.S.-Turkey cooperation also included 1 Nov launch of joint patrols in Manbij; mutual lifting of sanctions on ministers 2 Nov; and U.S. decision 5 Nov to exempt Turkey from sanctions on imports of Iranian crude oil; but differences remain including over north-east Syria and Ankara’s purchase of Russian S-400 missile systems. Crackdown on Islamic State (ISIS) continued; military 6 Nov reportedly detained 24 suspected ISIS sympathisers in simultaneous operations in Diyarbakır province. Govt crackdown on human rights activists intensified, with authorities 16 Nov detaining thirteen activists and staff of NGOs on – among others – charges of “deepening and spreading Gezi protests”; twelve released pending trial after interrogation, one arrested, prompting strong criticism from EU institutions and member states.

Month saw continued military operations against Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) in south-east Turkey and northern Iraq and uptick in crackdown on suspected PKK sympathisers; spike in tensions with Saudi Arabia over Khashoggi killing; and implementation of deal on removal of heavy weapons from Syria’s Idlib province alleviating immediate concerns over refugee influx. Eight soldiers killed 4 Oct in PKK-claimed attack in Batman, triggering wave of detentions of suspected PKK sympathisers, with almost 400 detained by 10 Oct; govt dismissed 559 village guards and suspended 259 neighbourhood heads for alleged PKK links. In crackdown on pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP) Diyarbakır head arrested on terrorism charges 9 Oct. Ahead of March 2019 municipal elections, President Erdoğan 7 Oct said, “If those involved with terror are elected we will do what is needed and replace them with [state-appointed] trustees”. Turkish military carried out three major cross-border air raids against PKK in northern Iraq; and late Oct reportedly hit People’s Protection Units (YPG) targets located east of Euphrates at Turkey-Syria border. Implementation of Sept deal between Russia and Turkey on demilitarised buffer zone in Syria’s rebel-held Idlib province continued, forestalling mass influx of refugees (see Syria). Turkey, Russia, France and Germany agreed joint communiqué at summit in Istanbul 27 Oct calling for “inclusive, Syrian-led and Syrian-owned political process” and emphasising “need to create conditions throughout the country for the safe and voluntary return of refugees”. Turkish officials expressed dissatisfaction with “U.S. delaying tactic” in implementation of so-called “Manbij roadmap” despite launch of training for joint U.S.-Turkish patrols in Manbij. Tensions with Saudi Arabia spiked as Turkey accused Riyadh of murdering Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi at Istanbul consulate 2 Oct, and provided details to press on alleged torture and dismemberment of body (see Saudi Arabia). Tensions with U.S. eased somewhat after Ankara 12 Oct released U.S. Pastor Andrew Brunson, although differences remain over key strategic issues. Relations with EU improved following Ankara’s efforts to mend ties with key EU capitals.

Govt continued military operations against Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) in south-east Turkey and northern Iraq. Turkish Interior Minister Süleyman Soylu 18 Sept said PKK was “taking its last breaths” and “this winter will be difficult [for the PKK]”, demonstrating Ankara’s determination to continue pushing for military solution. Ankara welcomed appointment of new UN Special Envoy for Syria, former U.S. Ambassador to Turkey James Jeffery, who in 4 Sept meeting with Turkish defence minister reportedly emphasised importance of continued U.S.-Turkish cooperation on Syria. President Erdoğan and Russian President Putin 17 Sept signed agreement for demilitarised buffer zone to allow for “radical” rebels and heavy weaponry to be “removed” from rebel-held north-western governorate of Idlib, alleviating concerns over possible refugee influx from what appeared to be an imminent Syrian regime offensive. Disagreement between Ankara and Washington over U.S. support for People’s Protection Units (YPG) in northern Syria continued. Erdoğan 24 Sept said Ankara could take military action against YPG in north-eastern Syria. Relations with EU and some EU capitals showed signs of improvement during month.

Month saw continued clashes between military and Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), pressure on pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP) and operations against PKK targets in northern Iraq, as well as concern over risks stemming from an all-out regime offensive against Idlib in northwest Syria, and tensions with the U.S.. Military operations against PKK in south east continued, with almost 40 casualties reported during month, mostly PKK militants. Crackdown on pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP) and sister Democratic Regions’ Party (DBP) continued. Two former HDP MPs were arrested 13 Aug on charges of “terrorism propaganda” over content of recent speeches; DBP co-mayor and HDP local official were among twelve arrested for suspected involvement in alleged PKK bomb attack 16 Aug. Ground operation in northern Iraq continued along with major air operations against PKK targets; President Erdoğan and Iraqi PM Abadi 14 Aug agreed on full cooperation against PKK. Amid spectre of all-out Russian-backed assault by Syrian regime on Syrian opposition stronghold Idlib, north-west Syria (see Syria) and fears of accompanying influx of refugees into Turkey, Ankara 15 Aug called on Syrian regime to terminate its military operation in Idlib and made diplomatic efforts with Russia to broker deal. Despite ongoing cooperation in Syria’s Manbij, U.S.-Turkey frictions increased: U.S. 1 Aug imposed sanctions on Turkish justice and interior ministers over Turkey’s refusal to free jailed U.S. pastor Andrew Brunson, subject of 3 Aug discussion between FMs, while diplomatic delegations met in Washington 7 Aug in attempt to resolve crisis. U.S. 10 Aug doubled tariffs on Turkish aluminium and steel products, contributing to sharp devaluation of Turkish Lira during first half of Aug; Trump 13 Aug signed bill blocking Turkey’s access to F-35 fighter jets; Erdoğan 14 Aug called for boycott of U.S. electronic products and 15 Aug hiked tariffs on U.S. products. Ankara 22 Aug accused U.S. of waging “economic war”, 27 Aug said U.S. sanctions could destabilise region, and exacerbate terrorism and refugee crisis. Lira slightly recovered toward end of month after Central Bank measures and Qatari Emir’s 15 Aug pledge for $15bn in direct investment. Turkish court 14 Aug ordered release of two Greek soldiers held since March for illegal border crossing and military espionage.

Number of fatalities and attacks in conflict between Turkey and Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) in south east went down compared to previous month; fatalities were concentrated in rural areas of Hakkari and Diyarbakır. By three-year anniversary of breakdown of ceasefire with PKK 20 July, Crisis Group had recorded almost 4,000 fatalities. Military conducted at least five major air operations hitting PKK targets in northern Iraq around Qandil during month. Govt crackdown on Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP) continued: court 10 July sentenced two previous HDP deputies to fifteen months in prison based on claims they disobeyed law on meetings and demonstrations; authorities launched investigations into four newly elected HDP MPs over “terrorist propaganda” charges after they attended funerals of PKK militants. Govt 18 July lifted state of emergency introduced following July 2016 coup attempt, in move expected to ease economic and political tensions, however ruling Justice and Development Party (AK) 25 July passed bill amending Turkey’s anti-terror law retaining some contentious provisions. Anti-Islamic State (ISIS) operations continued with further arrests. In northern Syria, Turkey and U.S. continued coordinated patrols around Manbij as part of their negotiated roadmap (see Syria). Relations with U.S. remain strained; FM Çavuşoglu confirmed during 11-12 July NATO summit that Turkey would complete contentious purchase of Russian S-400 missiles by end-2019. Tensions increased after Turkish court 25 July ruled to put jailed U.S. Pastor Andrew Brunson under house arrest (U.S. had expected his release). President Erdoğan met Russian President Putin on sidelines of BRICS summit in Johannesburg 26 July, reportedly discussing bilateral ties, Syria and upcoming Tehran summit (as part of Astana process dialogue on Syria conflict). Cooperation with EU on Syrian refugees continued with EU’s late June allocation of second tranche of €3bn to assist with Syrian refugees’ basic needs and integration. Tensions between Syrian refugees and host communities flared 2 July with fight in Bursa city, south of Istanbul, prompting some 500 residents to protest Syrian presence and vandalise Syrian-owned shops.

President Erdoğan won 24 June general election with 52.5% of vote, ahead of Republican People’s Party (CHP) candidate Muharrem İnce’s 30.7%. Erdoğan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP) won 293 of 600 parliament seats, and AKP ally Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) 50 seats; CHP won 146 seats; and pro-Kurdish Free Democratic Party (HDP) 67 seats. Amid intensified pressure on Kurdish movement in run-up to 24 June general election, HDP 13 June announced at least 208 party members were detained and 57 offices and booths attacked during campaign period; tensions turned violent 16 June when clash between pro-HDP shopkeepers and AKP delegation in south-eastern HDP-stronghold of Suruç left four dead, including three HDP supporters and brother of an AKP MP. Campaign period also saw opening up of renewed debate on Kurdish demands, with some candidates adopting more constructive stance on Kurdish issue. Security operations in south east against Kurdistan Worker’s Party (PKK) continued with threefold increase in casualties compared to May, concentrated in rural areas Hakkari and Şırnak. Turkey’s offensive into northern Iraq targeting PKK positions also intensified. Turkey and U.S. 4 June reached roadmap agreement on Manbij district, northern Syria, to ensure withdrawal of Syrian Kurdish militia YPG (People’s Protection Units). UN 11 June expressed concern that fighting and airstrikes in Syria’s Idlib province would create new influx of refugees into Turkey. Reported incidents between Syrian refugees and host communities increased slightly; three killed as argument in southern city Gaziantep escalated into shooting. U.S. Senate 18 June passed bill blocking sale of F-35 jets to Turkey in response to govt’s purchase of air defence missile systems from Russia; relations with U.S. further complicated by ongoing tensions surrounding hydrocarbon drilling in Aegean Sea (see Cyprus). Detentions and arrests of ISIS suspects continued.

Security operations in Turkey’s south east against militants of the Kurdistan Worker’s Party (PKK) – listed as a terrorist organisation by Turkey, the U.S. and the EU – continued with less fatalities compared to previous month. Ahead of 24 June presidential and parliamentary elections, govt continued crackdown on pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP) stripping two more members of MP status, bringing total to eleven (out of 59). Erdoğan 4 May said Turkey will maintain military presence in Syria’s Afrin until area secured, adding that “Idlib, Tal Rifaat and Manbij will be next” (FM Çavuşoğlu is set to visit Washington 4 June to meet U.S. Sec State Mike Pompeo to, among others, discuss issue of Manbij). Military 16 May announced it had finished establishing security posts in Syria’s Idlib province. Govt reported that some 150,000 Syrian refugees had returned to Syria from Turkey over past eighteen months, particularly after Afrin operation. Detentions and arrests of suspected ISIS militants continued, including senior ISIS figure Ismail Alwaan al-Ithawi, who foreign ministry reported was captured following joint operation with U.S. and Iraqi intelligence. Govt and President Erdoğan criticised President Trump’s 8 May decision to withdraw from Iran nuclear deal. Relations with U.S. were further strained particularly after 14 May opening of U.S. embassy to Israel in Jerusalem, which prompted govt to recall its ambassadors to U.S. and Israel and declare three days of national mourning over deaths in Gaza (see Israel/Palestine); Turkish foreign ministry 15 May instructed Israeli ambassador to Ankara and Israeli consul general to leave Turkey. Tensions with Greece over Aegean Sea de-escalated somewhat; Turkish and Greek military chiefs of staff met on sidelines of North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) meeting in Brussels 16 May.

Military operations in south east continued, with near fourfold increase in fatalities in March and April (30 state security force members, at least 41 Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) militants, three civilians) compared to Jan-Feb (nine security force members, at least eleven PKK militants). Fatalities in April concentrated mostly in Şırnak, Hakkari and Hatay. Military continued cross-border attacks in northern Iraq targeting PKK positions; security sources 28 March reported military establishing new base in Hakkari’s Şemdinli district near Iraqi border to combat PKK. Crackdown on Kurdish movement members/sympathisers continued. President Erdoğan 18 April called for early presidential and parliamentary elections to be held 24 June. Govt extended state of emergency for seventh time hours after election announcement, prompting small-scale opposition protests across country. EU annual progress report 17 April for Turkey, considered most negative to date, underlined govt’s “legitimate right to fight against terrorism” and praised efforts to integrate Syrian refugees, but was highly critical of country’s democratic trajectory, erosion of rule of law and limiting of freedoms, argued that Turkey moving away from EU; also stressed that security measures should be proportionate; highlighted problem of immunity of security forces for reported killings in anti-PKK operations. Tensions between Greece and Turkey mounted as latter continued to hold two Greek soldiers who crossed into Turkish territory early March. Greece 10 April shot at Turkish helicopter near islet of Ro; Greek fighter jet 12 April crashed into Aegean while returning from intercept mission, resulting in death of pilot. Turkish media reported 27 April that security forces had caught Islamic State (ISIS) suspect in western Izmir province who reportedly had functioned as organisation’s “emir” in Syria’s Deir al-Zour, and mingled with Syrian refugees attempting to cross to Europe.

Military operations against Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) militants in south east continued, mostly in rural areas of Diyarbakır province. Military 1 March carried out cross-border airstrikes targeting PKK positions in northern Iraq, after PKK militants reportedly opened fire at Turkish military post at Iraq border. Turkish military together with Syrian Sunni rebels 18 March took control of Afrin centre in north west Syria from Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) and 24 March announced it had taken entire region. President Erdoğan said Turkey would next target Kurdish fighters in Manbij, prompting concerns over possible confrontation with U.S. troops; Erdoğan 25 March said Ankara was ready to launch an operation in Iraq’s northern Sinjar region, where he said PKK was creating a new base. Amid continued strained relations, U.S. and Turkey held first working-level meeting of three bilateral technical committees established to improve relations in Washington 8-9 March, discussing issues including operations in Syria and Iraq. Parliament 12 March passed bill overhauling election law, which inter alia allows authorities to relocate ballot boxes from “insecure areas” and enables law enforcement officials to directly monitor voting process, heightening concerns about election irregularities particularly in south east. Ankara 7 March submitted position paper to European Commission detailing seven steps to fulfil remaining criteria for lifting Schengen visa requirements for Turkish citizens, including minor change to anti-terror law. At EU-Turkey summit 26 March, both sides agreed on need for better relations and increased cooperation, though with no concrete progress on key issues. European Commission 14 March officially proposed to mobilise funds for second €3bn tranche for Facility for Refugees in Turkey. Tensions increased with Greece over hydrocarbon reserves off Cyprus (see Cyprus) and Turkey’s early March detention of two Greek soldiers who Ankara accused of “espionage”, while soldiers claimed they had accidentally strayed into Turkish territory during a patrol.

Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) claimed 1 Feb explosion at tax office in Ankara which slightly injured three civilians. Military operations against PKK militants in rural areas of south east continued but with few fatalities, most likely due to harsh winter conditions and shift of focus to Ankara’s Afrin operation which began 20 Jan. Crackdown against Democratic People’s Party (HDP) functionaries and Kurdish movement members continued, including launch of criminal investigation into newly-elected HDP co-chair Pervin Buldan and MP Sırrı Süreyya Önder over their criticism of military operation in Afrin during HDP party congress 11 Feb. Some 900 individuals, mostly Kurdish movement members or supporters, detained during month charged with spreading “terrorism propaganda” for sharing social media posts critical of Afrin operation. Ankara continued military incursion into northern Syria’s Afrin district (see Syria); military 25 Feb announced it had “neutralised” more than 2,000 militants so far; 26 Feb reportedly took control of area around Afrin, circling it from three sides. Turkish media 24 Feb reported 32 soldiers killed in operation. President Erdoğan 20 Feb said offensive would continue into Afrin city centre. Erdoğan and other officials during month said they would move forward with operation into Manbij to expel Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG). Turkish-U.S. relations remained strained: Ankara reacted strongly to Pentagon’s 12 Feb request for some $300mn to train and equip YPG-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), while U.S. complained Afrin operation was hampering efforts to maintain focus on fight against ISIS and had increased security risk for U.S. special forces; U.S. Secretary State Rex Tillerson’s 15-16 Feb visit to Ankara helped ease tensions. Crackdown on individuals suspected to have connections to jihadist networks in Turkey continued, including reported detention of over 100 ISIS suspects, mostly foreign nationals, during police operations in Istanbul 2 and 17 Feb.

Turkish military 20 Jan launched “Olive Branch” land and air operation against Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) positions in Afrin, north-western Syria, in conjunction with Turkey-backed Sunni rebel groups. Ankara cited need to maintain security of Turkey’s border provinces, prevent Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) from reaching eastern Mediterranean and infiltrating Turkey, and counter what it called U.S. support for terrorist organisation. Move followed statement from U.S.-led coalition spokesperson 13 Jan that they were working with YPG-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) to set up new 30,000-strong border force, with Kurds serving in areas in northern Syria. U.S. Secretary of State Tillerson 18 Jan denied U.S. had any intention of building Syria-Turkey border security force. Ankara 30 Jan said five soldiers and 24 Turkey-backed rebels had been killed in fighting. Erdoğan vowed that Manbij would be next military target in northern Syria, citing broken promises over YPG withdrawal, and said Turkish military could continue east to Iraq (see Syria). Four YPG-attributed missile attacks hit residential border areas in Kilis province 21 Jan. Five civilians including one Syrian killed in cross-border YPG-attributed attacks on residential border areas in Hatay and Kilis since beginning of Afrin operation. Interior ministry 29 Jan announced 311 people had been detained for making terror propaganda on social media regarding Afrin operation; most of those charged had criticised operation or made anti-war comments. Security operations by the military in rural south east continued throughout month. Military also continued to carry out cross-border airstrikes targeting PKK positions in northern Iraq. Parliament 18 Jan voted to extend state of emergency for sixth three-month period.

Security operations by Turkish military in south east continued, with lower fatalities – compared to previous month – among security forces and Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) militants, likely due to harsh winter conditions. Fatalities concentrated in rural areas of Şırnak, Mardin and Hatay, and reportedly include some key PKK militants. Crisis Group figures show ratio of militant to security force fatalities went up from 1.3 in 2016 to 3.1 in 2017. PM Yıldırım 1 Dec said security operations had weakened PKK to point where there was “no possibility” for it to recover. Istanbul police 13 Dec announced they foiled alleged PKK-planned attack on Organisation of Islamic Cooperation summit. In continuing crackdown against Kurdish movement and alleged PKK sympathisers, court 1 Dec jailed five Kurdish movement-affiliated DBP (Democratic Regions Party) functionaries in Şanlıurfa on charges of “spreading terrorist propaganda”. President Erdoğan and other officials continued to accuse EU of supporting PKK on various occasions during month. European Parliament 22 Nov endorsed proposal to “systematically deny access to all persons, groups or entities” affiliated with organisations recognised as “terrorist” by EU. EU Counter-Terrorism Coordinator late Nov visited Ankara to forge cooperation on countering violent extremism. Tensions with U.S. rose as Ankara condemned U.S. President Trump’s 6 Dec announcement to recognise Jerusalem as capital of Israel. Turkey and U.S. 28 Dec lifted remaining visa restrictions imposed late Oct. Turkey and Russia signed agreement 29 Dec for Russia to supply Turkey with S-400 surface-to-air missiles. Erdoğan 30 Dec said Turkey would do to Kurdish People’s Protection Unit (YPG) in Syria “that we did to Daesh”, and secure its borders. Turkish media 18 Dec reported 781km of planned 911km wall along Turkey’s Syria border completed. Social tensions between refugees and host communities continued, though with fewer reported violent incidents than in previous month.

Military operations in south east continued: clashes in Hakkari’s Şemdinli district 2 Nov between security forces and Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) militants reportedly crossing border from Iraq killed two village guards and six soldiers; President Erdoğan next day vowed to “smash all terrorist camps” threatening Turkey from Iraq and Syria. Turkish security forces reportedly seized bomb-laden drone allegedly belonging to PKK in Ağrı province early Nov. Govt 14 Nov announced death in Şırnak of high-ranking member of PKK’s senior council Hülya Eroğlu; chief prosecutor’s office 18 Nov filed criminal complaint against three Democratic People’s Party (HDP) MPs for attending Eroğlu’s funeral. Following Oct spat, U.S. embassy in Turkey 6 Nov announced plan to partially resume visa services; Turkey’s embassy in U.S. reciprocated same day. Visiting Washington 7-11 Nov, PM Yıldırım reiterated demands for extradition of Fethullah Gülen, alleged mastermind of July 2016 coup attempt, and called on U.S. to stop support for Kurdish People’s Protection Unit (YPG) in Syria; said Turkey’s defence cooperation with Russia did not undermine NATO alliance. Turkey, Russia and Iran 22 Nov held high-level summit in Sochi, Russia, to discuss future of Syria (see Syria). Turkish foreign minister 24 Nov announced that U.S. President Trump promised in phone call that U.S. will no longer provide weapons to YPG; however Pentagon 27 Nov said it was “reviewing pending adjustments to the military support”. Turkish military continued operation in Syria’s Idlib province. YPG 20 Nov reportedly launched five mortar attacks targeting Turkish military positions on Idlib-Afrin line. Turkey’s National Security Council 28 Nov discussed expanding Idlib operation to areas around Afrin and western Aleppo. Number of incidents between refugees and hosts decreased from Oct; some 200 people 4 Nov attacked Syrian homes and shops in Konya’s Karatay district, injuring one. EU 19 Nov announced €105mn cuts in pre-accession assistance to Turkey due to deterioration of democracy, rule of law and human rights. PM Yıldırım 27 Nov threatened to withdraw from EU refugee deal if YPG/PYD is given role in Syrian peace talks.

Clashes between Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) and Turkish military killed at least 28 in Oct, mostly in Diyarbakır, Hakkari and Şırnak provinces. PKK-claimed bomb attack in Mersin province 17 Oct wounded eighteen people, mostly police. Interior minister 11 Oct said over 68,000 security operations in past twelve months had resulted in 30,167 arrests: 40,215 operations against PKK, 25,818 against state-christened FETÖ/PDY, and some 2,000 against Islamic State (ISIS) and leftist “terrorist” organisations. As crackdown on Kurdish movement continued, Democratic People’s Party (HDP) 3 Oct boycotted first session of parliament. Court in Muğla province 4 Oct jailed Erdoğan’s former aide-de-camp and 30 others to life imprisonment over role in July 2016 failed coup; govt 16 Oct extended post-coup state of emergency for another three months. Istanbul court 25 Oct ordered release of eight human rights campaigners pending trial – including Amnesty International Turkey Director and a German and a Swedish citizen. Authorities 18 Oct detained leading philanthropist and businessman Osman Kavala and NGO director Şaban Kardaş reportedly in same probe; Kavala formally arrested 31 Oct, charged with attempting to overthrow govt and constitutional order. Turkish military 8 Oct crossed border into Syria’s jihadist-controlled Idlib province to conduct reconnaissance activities reportedly with 200 special forces, military vehicles and advanced equipment as part of joint mission with Russia and Iran to establish “de-escalation zone”. Turkish military 27 Oct announced that it set up second observation post inside Idlib. Turkish FM 26 Oct said they expected Kurdish Regional Govt (KRG) to cancel independence referendum. Ankara also continued to firm up its cooperation with Iraqi central govt; the two sides agreed to open second border gate 26 Oct. Relations with U.S. hit new low after govt 4 Oct arrested U.S. consular employee for alleged links to FETÖ/PDY; both U.S. and Turkey 9 Oct suspended all non-immigrant visa services for travel between two countries. Tensions between refugee and host communities remained high, with small-scale violent outbreaks, among others in Istanbul, Izmir and Antalya. Baku-Akhalkalaki-Kars railway 30 Oct officially launched in Baku; railway connects Azerbaijan, Georgia and Turkey to Europe (see Azerbaijan).

Military operations against Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) militants in south east continued with considerable decrease in security force fatalities (ten killed, mostly in rural areas of Hakkari, Bingöl and Şırnak), slight decrease in PKK casualties (at least 22 fatalities, mostly in Diyarbakır, Hakkari, and Van provinces). Three state infrastructure workers killed in Hakkari and Şırnak provinces, allegedly by PKK early Sept. Environment and urbanisation minister 6 Sept announced reconstruction of areas in south east destroyed during 2016 fighting to be completed within six months. Main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) late Aug voiced concerns over claims govt drone killed civilian in Hakkari; President Erdoğan and PM Yıldırım condemned remarks as “terrorist propaganda”; PKK 6 Sept confirmed casualty was member of PKK. Govt 19 Sept confirmed abduction of two intelligence agents reportedly on mission to assassinate PKK leader Cemil Bayık in Sulaimaniah; foreign minister Çavuşoğlu said govt engaged in efforts to bring back agents, said no “direct contact” with PKK. In joint statement with Iran and Iraq, Ankara 20 Sept warned Iraq’s Kurdistan Regional Govt (KRG) not to hold 25 Sept independence referendum, warning of “countermeasures”, amid concerns vote will increase separatist nationalism among Kurds in Turkey’s south east, and damage country’s economic and political ties with KRG. Following referendum, Ankara vowed to cut off oil trade with KRG and close Habur border gate; 29 Sept halted all flights to Iraqi Kurdistan from Turkey (see Iraq). Turkey 18 Sept launched military exercise on Iraqi border, beginning in Silopi district and quickly expanding. Iraqi army joined Turkish forces for manoeuvres 25 Sept. Govt 12 Sept confirmed deal to purchase S-400 surface-to-air missile system from Russia, adding strain on relationship with U.S. and NATO. Erdoğan 18 Sept again criticised U.S. for supplying weapons to Kurdish People’s Protection Unit (YPG) in Syria. Small-scale outbreaks of violence between refugee and host communities continued during month; related social tensions in urban districts of Istanbul, Ankara and Izmir remain high.

Clashes between Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) and security forces in south east continued at low intensity, with at least 38 confirmed casualties during month, mostly PKK militants and six civilians; security force fatalities concentrated in rural areas of Batman, Hakkari and Şırnak, PKK fatalities mostly reported in Tunceli, Diyarbakır and Siirt provinces. Military operations including destruction of PKK shelters and ammunition storages; military 11 Aug reported it had seized two Swedish-made AT-4 missiles in Şırnak’s Uludere district. PKK continued attacks on civilians and state representatives. Crackdown on Kurdish movement and alleged sympathisers continued, including prosecution on loosely-defined terrorism charges. Police 2 Aug arrested French journalist Loup Jean René Bureau in Şırnak’s Uludere district for alleged links to Kurdish People’s Protection Unit (YPG); Czech officials same day said court had jailed two Czech nationals claiming to be humanitarian workers for YPG membership. Pro-Kurdish Democratic People’s Party (HDP) 1 Aug launched “justice watch” demonstrations in Istanbul’s Kadikoy district, to continue across country ahead of one year anniversary of HDP deputies’ arrest 4 Nov. On Syrian front, relations with U.S. remained tense over opposing positions on Sunni rebel groups and U.S. backing of YPG’s Raqqa offensive. Military 5 Aug announced stronger presence along southern border against possible YPG threats; media 8 Aug reported construction of “security wall” in apparent bid to curb illegal crossings from Iran. Ruling body of Iraq’s Kurdish region Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) 12 Aug said it will go ahead with 25 Sept independence referendum despite opposition from Turkey, U.S., Iran and others. Crackdown against suspected Islamic State (ISIS) militants ongoing: police 10 Aug detained Russian citizen accused of ISIS membership; suspected ISIS militant 13 Aug stabbed dead police officer trying to detain him in Istanbul, suspect killed. Tensions between refugees and host communities remain high; Pew survey 1 Aug reported 64% of Turkish citizen respondents cited refugee issue as major threat. Amid ongoing tensions with Berlin, German Chancellor Merkel 16 Aug said no expansion of EU-Turkey customs union in sight.