Deadly hostilities between military and resistance forces continued countrywide, regime curtailed relief operations following cyclone and Thailand sought high-level engagement with regime.

Countrywide clashes continued between military and ethnic armed groups. In Sagaing region (north west), military 4 June raided People’s Defence Forces (PDF) camp in Budalin township and allegedly executed three detained fighters. Regime forces 5 June used 18 people from nine villages in Kawlin township as human shields, leaving at least nine dead. Around 80 soldiers 7 June raided PDF camp in Monywa township. Three resistance groups 9 June raided police station in Salingyi township, claiming to have killed eleven officers. After fighting escalated between regime and Karen National Liberation Army (KNLA) in May, KNLA and resistance forces 1 June staged attack on bridge in Thaton township linking Mon and Kayin states, reportedly inflicting heavy casualties. In Bago region (south east), KNLA and allies 6 June destroyed major bridge in Kyaukkyi township. Assailants 7 June shot dead army major and village administrator in Kyauktaga township. Meanwhile, conflict intensified in Chin state (north west) as regime forces sought to clear resistance groups from strategic locations.

Regime pursued peace talks with select armed groups. Regime peace negotiators 1 2 June met representatives of three ethnic armed groups (Arakan Army, Ta’ang National Liberation Army and Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army - MNDAA, which collectively make up Three Brothers Alliance) for first time since coup, with Chinese facilitation; no concrete progress was made and fighting erupted in Laukkaing townships with MNDAA during talks.

Junta closely controlled relief following Cyclone. Amid aftermath of 14 May cyclone that was strongest ever to make landfall on Myanmar coast, regime 8 June rejected UN aid distribution plan and rescinded existing travel authorisations; acting UN resident coordinator 12 June described restrictions as “devastating setback”. Consequently, only small amount of aid reached 1.6m affected people.

Thailand sought to boost engagement with junta. Thai FM 19 June hosted meeting of Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) FMs with ultimate aim to “fully re-engage Myanmar at the leaders’ level”, to which only Myanmar and Laos sent respective FMs; ASEAN chair Indonesia criticised Thai initiative, reflecting lack of consensus within regional bloc.

Deadly hostilities between military and resistance forces continued countrywide, regime curtailed relief operations following cyclone and Thailand sought high-level engagement with regime.

Countrywide clashes continued between military and ethnic armed groups. In Sagaing region (north west), military 4 June raided People’s Defence Forces (PDF) camp in Budalin township and allegedly executed three detained fighters. Regime forces 5 June used 18 people from nine villages in Kawlin township as human shields, leaving at least nine dead. Around 80 soldiers 7 June raided PDF camp in Monywa township. Three resistance groups 9 June raided police station in Salingyi township, claiming to have killed eleven officers. After fighting escalated between regime and Karen National Liberation Army (KNLA) in May, KNLA and resistance forces 1 June staged attack on bridge in Thaton township linking Mon and Kayin states, reportedly inflicting heavy casualties. In Bago region (south east), KNLA and allies 6 June destroyed major bridge in Kyaukkyi township. Assailants 7 June shot dead army major and village administrator in Kyauktaga township. Meanwhile, conflict intensified in Chin state (north west) as regime forces sought to clear resistance groups from strategic locations.

Regime pursued peace talks with select armed groups. Regime peace negotiators 1-2 June met representatives of three ethnic armed groups (Arakan Army, Ta’ang National Liberation Army and Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army - MNDAA, which collectively make up Three Brothers Alliance) for first time since coup, with Chinese facilitation; no concrete progress was made and fighting erupted in Laukkaing townships with MNDAA during talks.

Junta closely controlled relief following Cyclone. Amid aftermath of 14 May cyclone that was strongest ever to make landfall on Myanmar coast, regime 8 June rejected UN aid distribution plan and rescinded existing travel authorisations; acting UN resident coordinator 12 June described restrictions as “devastating setback”. Consequently, only small amount of aid reached 1.6m affected people.

Thailand sought to boost engagement with junta. Thai FM 19 June hosted meeting of Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) FMs with ultimate aim to “fully re-engage Myanmar at the leaders’ level”, to which only Myanmar and Laos sent respective FMs; ASEAN chair Indonesia criticised Thai initiative, reflecting lack of consensus within regional bloc.

Deadly clashes continued between military and resistance forces, regime released over 2,000 prisoners, and cyclone wreaked devastation and killed hundreds of Rohingya in coastal areas.

Countrywide clashes continued between military and ethnic armed groups. In southern Shan State (east), military 5-6 May bombed Pekon township after Karenni Nationalities Defence Force and People’s Defence Forces (PDFs) 26 April killed some 20 regime soldiers. Unidentified gunmen 7 May attacked regional bloc ASEAN’s diplomatic convoy comprising Indonesian and Singaporean diplomats carrying supplies for Hsi Hseng township displacement camp. In Chin State (north west), Chin National Army 1 May clashed with military on Hakha-Gangaw road, Magway region, killing several soldiers. Chinland Defence Force in Matupi town 5 May ambushed military base, killing two officers; military 9 May launched airstrike on group’s headquarters in Hakha township, killing two. In Kayin State (south east), Karen National Liberation Army Brigade 5 on 2 May attacked military post in War Thot Kho village, killing seven soldiers and guards.

Regime released prisoners, urged resistance fighters to disarm. Regime 3 May released 2,153 political prisoners and commuted 38 death sentences to life imprisonment, timed to coincide with Chinese FM Qin Gang’s first visit to capital Nay Pyi Taw since Feb 2021 coup. Regime 9 May invited members of “terrorist groups” and “illegal organisations” to “return to the legal fold”. Regime-controlled election commission continued to prepare for elections, approving re-registration of nine ethnic minority parties; no election date has been set.

ASEAN reasserted Five-Point Consensus to manage crisis. ASEAN leaders 11 May jointly stated Five-Point Consensus remained “main reference” and for first time backed Indonesia’s approach of engaging all stakeholders. Statement also supported efforts to repatriate Rohingya refugees from Bangladesh: delegation of 20 Rohingya refugees 5 May held “go and see” visit to Rakhine State (see Bangladesh).

Severe cyclone made landfall, hundreds fled conflict in India’s north east. Cyclone Mocha 14 May became strongest ever to make landfall on Myanmar-Bangladesh coast; hitting near Sittwe, it killed at least 400, primarily Rohingya, in coastal areas or camps, and devastated lowland areas and livelihoods of 1.6mn people. Meanwhile, ethnic conflict flared in India’s Manipur state, killing scores and forcing some 300 Indians to flee into Sagaing region (see India).

Regime launched deadly airstrikes as ethnic armed groups and resistance forces staged ambushes in north and southeast; authorities agreed to possible small-scale Rohingya repatriation and sentenced activists.

In north, regime airstrikes killed scores amid resistance ambushes. Continuing series of deadly airstrikes in late March, military 10 April bombed school in Chin National Defence Force (CNDF)-controlled Falam township, killing at least 11. Military next day conducted devastating air attacks during resistance ceremony in Kanbalu township, Sagaing region, killing at least 170, mostly civilians; UN human rights chief Volker Türk reiterated regime violations “may constitute crimes against humanity and war crimes”. Meanwhile, armed groups in Chin state stepped up lethal ambushes on military convoys: notably, Chin National Front 2 April attacked convoy between Falam and Hakha townships, inflicting casualties.

In southeast, heavy fighting resurged along Asian Highway, displacing thousands. People’s Defence Forces (PDF) and allied groups, including Karen National Liberation Army (KNLA), late March began ambushes on regime outposts and along highway connecting to Thailand, claiming to have killed dozens of regime forces. Notably, KNLA-PDF “Cobra Column” 3-4 April inflicted heavy casualties in ambush on military truck and police station in Myawaddy. Fighting spread northward, as KNLA and resistance 5 April destroyed two Kayin State Border Guard outposts near Shwe Kokko town; clashes over subsequent week inflicted heavy casualties and forced 4,000 people to flee into Thailand.

Regime agreed to possible small-scale Rohingya repatriation, courts sentenced activists. Following months of negotiations, State Administration Council 3 April declared Myanmar would accept 1,100 Rohingya Muslim refugees and 30o Hindu refugees from Bangladesh; regime confirmed only 56,000 out of 87,000 refugees on list sent by Bangladesh (see Bangladesh). Meanwhile, court 6 April sentenced activist Wai Moe Naing to 34 years imprisonment and next day sentenced Kachin National Consultative Assembly leader Reverend Hkalam Samson to six years in prison.

Regime cemented ties to China and Russia. Senior Chinese official Wang Ning 2 April oversaw signing of agriculture, health and energy agreements with regime in capital Naypyitaw. Regime leader Min Aung Hlaing 3 April conferred honorary Thiri Pyanchi title on Russia’s deputy defence minister.

Military continued alleged abuses against civilians and resistance, while regime disbanded political parties ahead of possible election and took step toward small-scale Rohingya repatriation.

Military faced allegations of abuses and civilian massacres. Daily accusations surfaced against military, particularly in Dry Zone region. Notably, National Unity Govt 6 March highlighted alleged atrocities committed by military late Feb, such as beheading of two teenage boys and massacre of at least 14 people, including several women who were first sexually abused. In Shan State, regime 11 March raided Nam Neint village in southern Pinlaung township following clashes since 24 Feb, torching homes and launching airstrikes to counter attempted resistance offensive; soldiers reportedly massacred 21-28 people. Regime spokesperson Zaw Min Tun denied civilian killings. Concurrent reports of abuses, albeit fewer, by resistance groups surfaced.

Regime disbanded National League for Democracy (NLD) and dozens of other parties. Ahead of possibly elections that regime appears intent on holding between Nov and Jan, eight new political parties as of 26 March applied to register under new Political Party Registration law, with 44 existing parties applying to remain registered; of eight parties that won more than single seat in 2020, only four have re-registered. Regime 28 March disbanded NLD and 39 other parties after not registering; NLD 3 March expelled four senior members for “disrespecting the public’s will” and “cooperating with the dictator” amid intra-party divisions over whether to contest election or support armed struggle against regime.

Regime took small step toward possibly repatriating Rohingya refugees. Regime 8 March brought ambassadors from China, India, Bangladesh and regional bloc ASEAN to Sittwe and Maungdaw reception facilities in northern Rakhine State in pilot project aiming to repatriate some 1,000 Rohingya refugees from Bangladesh.

China stepped up diplomatic overtures, U.S. imposed sanctions. Chinese Special Envoy to Myanmar Deng Xijun 6 March met leader Min Aung Hlaing to discuss regime’s negotiations with ethnic armed groups and other issues. Chinese Ambassador Chen Hai next day met Union Election Commission in capital Naypyitaw to discuss election preparations. Meanwhile, U.S. 2 March sanctioned three Myanmar entities for providing surveillance technology to regime.

Govt delayed elections as it extended state of emergency and expanded martial law, while military and resistance groups clashed heavily and regional leaders debated crisis response.

Regime extended state of emergency and imposed martial law. Amid widespread insecurity, regime 1 Feb announced six-month extension of state of emergency, beyond constitutional deadline, pushing back timeline of election to no later than 31 Jan 2024. Regime 2 Feb imposed martial law on 37 townships in eight states and regions, and another three townships on 22 Feb, bringing total number of townships under martial law to 52. Election preparations, however, continued: govt 3 Feb said voter list data from some 87% of households had been verified.

Resistance groups continued raids and battled regime forces. In Chin State, Chin National Army and Chinland Defence Force 8 Feb raided police station in Thantlang town, killing four soldiers; military next day launched airstrikes around town. In Sagaing region, resistance groups led by Homalin People’s Defence Force (PDF) early Feb overran Shwe Pyi Aye town, Homalin township, before major military offensive repelled resistance. Regime forces 4-5 Feb allegedly raided five villages in Kanbalu township, displacing 2,000 villagers. Regime 7 Feb overran resistance camps in southern Salingyi township following martial law imposition. Light Infantry Division 44 soldiers 3 Feb allegedly beheaded six PDF members and killed one civilian near Pale township. In Magway region, Pakokku District PDF Battalion 3 on 5 Feb attacked two regime vehicles on Pakokku-Yesagyo road, killing seven.

Indonesia and Malaysia urged more robust crisis response. Indonesian President Widodo 1 Feb revealed intention to send top general to Myanmar “as soon as possible” for dialogue and said regional bloc ASEAN would not be “held hostage” by crisis. ASEAN Foreign Ministers’ Retreat held 3-4 Feb concluded “inclusive national dialogue” was only way to peacefully resolve crisis. In meeting with Thai PM Prayut Chan-o-cha, Malaysian PM Anwar Ibrahim 9 Feb urged Thailand to take more active role, next day said crisis should “not frustrate our moves”. Meanwhile, European Union 20 Feb imposed fresh sanctions on nine regime-linked individuals and seven entities.

Regime prepared for election and pursued dialogue with ethnic armed groups, while ongoing heavy clashes between military and resistance groups displaced thousands.

Regime continued election preparations and peace talks with ethnic armed groups. Leader Min Aung Hlaing 5 Jan called for update of voter list as part of preparation for election likely held mid-year. Regime 26 Jan issued new highly restrictive political party registration law, which will likely result in most parties being dissolved within 60 days. Election faced opposition: National Unity Govt (NUG) urged public not to cooperate with process, and resistance groups during month staged more than dozen attacks on teams updating voter lists across country, including assault which killed one in Tanintharyi region 9 Jan. Meanwhile, discussions with ethnic armed groups under regime peace initiative continued; nine of ten groups participated in three rounds of meetings as of 25 Jan. Officials 5-7 Jan met United Wa State Party, National Democratic Alliance Army (Mongla) and Shan State Progress Party (SSPP); SSPP 7 Jan said groups would not oppose election process. Marking Independence Day, Tatmadaw 4 Jan released 7,012 prisoners, including some 300 political prisoners.

Military launched airstrikes against ethnic armed groups in north. In Kachin State, military 9 Jan conducted air attacks on Kachin Independence Army base in Tanai township and outposts in Hpakant and Hkamti townships. In Chin State, regime 10 Jan launched airstrikes against Chin National Front (CNF) headquarters at Camp Victoria, Thantlang township, killing five CNF soldiers and injuring ten; additional airstrike next day damaged medical facility and destroyed three homes.

Military and Karen National Liberation Army (KNLA) clashes displaced thousands. In Kayin State, military 1 Jan launched around 20 airstrikes against KNLA Brigade 6 and Kawthoolei Army’s Lion Battalion in Kyainseikgyi township following groups’ late Dec seizure of two bases near Payathonesu, killing seven Lion Battalion soldiers. Brigade 6 and allied People’s Defence Forces (PDFs) 4 Jan launched attacks on three infantry battalions around Kyainseikgyi; military responded with helicopter gunships. Military next day bombed Brigade 6-aligned Karen National Union administrative office in Dooplaya district. Clashes displaced some 10,000 people, and KNLA claimed it killed 70 soldiers.

Violence between regime and resistance forces continued, as late Nov fragile ceasefire held in Rakhine State, while U.K., Canada, U.S. and UN Security Council censured regime.

Military continued operations, notably in Shan State; late-Nov pause in Rakhine State continued. Military continued major military operations during month; notably, ground and air forces 7 Dec launched surprise attack on ethnic armed group Ta’ang National Liberation Army close to Namhsan township headquarters, Shan State, conducting 30 airstrikes and shelling area for five days. Ceasefire in Rakhine State declared late Nov between Arakan Army (AA) and regime held throughout month despite little attempt by sides to de-escalate, with both AA and regime troops still entrenched amid regime redeployments and ongoing arrests of AA members; deal could collapse any time. Tatmadaw 4 Dec detained prominent Kachin civil society leader Rev. Hkalam Samson at Mandalay Airport.

Evidence surfaced of serious abuses at hands of People’s Defence Force (PDF). In Sagaing region, video 3 Dec emerged purportedly showing resistance group torturing and executing woman accused of being military informant in Tamu township; unnamed Tamu People’s Defence Force (PDF) member said video was six months old; National Unity Govt (NUG) 5 Dec commenced investigation. PDF Kantbalu Battlion 4 on 1 Dec detained lawyer San San Yi along with two others in Shwebo township, next day killed her in Kantbalu township and released other detainees; NUG 8 Dec confirmed investigation into her death.

Canada and UK imposed new sanctions, U.S. passed bill to support anti-regime forces. Marking Human Rights Day 10 Dec, Canada sanctioned three entities and 12 individuals including military personnel, cabinet members and arms dealers, while UK sanctioned Office of the Chief of Military Affairs Security and Light Infantry Divisions 33 and 99. U.S. Congress 15 Dec passed National Defense Authorisation Act, which included clauses to support NUG and other anti-military groups; provided for humanitarian assistance, including for first time to ethnic armed groups; and supported (but did not mandate) sanctions against state-run Myanmar Oil and Gas Enterprise. UN Security Council 21 Dec adopted first Myanmar resolution in seven decades, calling on junta to release all political prisoners.

Military clashed heavily with Arakan Army in Rakhine State and resistance forces in centre amid mounting allegations of atrocities, while regime pardoned thousands of prisoners.

Arakan Army (AA) stepped up ambushes on military in Rakhine State. Clashes were reported in four townships 8 Nov, with AA claiming to have killed at least ten members of security forces. AA landmines 10 Nov struck military truck carrying rations in Ponnagyun township, killing ten soldiers; regime forces same day retaliated by massacring at least nine civilians in nearby village. AA 14 Nov ambushed military convoy in northern Maungdaw township, 15 Nov attacked military outposts in Buthidaung and Ponnagyun townships. Military 15 Nov allegedly shelled children’s birthday party in Maungdaw, killing at least 11 civilians.

Resistance forces and military battled in central and southern areas. In Sagaing region, regime soldiers 6 Nov allegedly killed as many as 14 people, including eight civilians and four People’s Defence Forces (PDF) members, in Monywa township; several victims showed signs of severe torture. Meanwhile, Karen National Liberation Army (KNLA) and allied PDFs launched several major attacks in mid-Nov, capturing military outposts; notably, 12 Nov attacked police station in Kyaikmayaw township, Mon State, killing three police officers, and same day captured three military camps in Bago region.

Regime released prisoners amid 2023 election preparations. In mass pardon to mark National Day, regime 17 Nov released almost 6,000 prisoners, including former ministers, activists, senior National League for Democracy (NLD) officials and four foreigners; regime claimed 700 were political prisoners. Meanwhile, Vice Senior General Soe Win 10 Nov chaired meeting on verifying voter lists for 2023 election while leader Min Aung Hlaing next day underscored importance of ongoing peace talks with ethnic armed groups to support election, expressing hope of concluding agreements with armed groups by year’s end. New Mon State Party 9-10 Nov participated in third round of talks with regime.

ASEAN reiterated support for its diplomatic initiative. Regional body ASEAN leaders 11 Nov retained its Five Point Consensus to end crisis, tasked FMs with developing “concrete” implementation plan, and agreed to maintain ban on regime officials attending meetings.

Resistance groups in centre staged deadly attacks on regime, which clashed heavily with Arakan Army in Rakhine state and Karen armed groups in south east; regime killed scores in deadliest air attack on record.

Resistance forces launched several lethal attacks in centre. In Sagaing region, combined people’s defence forces (PDFs) for second time since April 2 Oct attacked strategic locations comprising police post and five army bunkers in Kyadet village, Salingyi township. Military next day retaliated, looting and torching villages, displacing thousands. PDFs 2 Oct attacked police station in Sagaing’s Monywa township, killing at least ten soldiers, while resistance forces same day killed six soldiers in Myingyan township. PDFs 2 Oct attacked police training camp in Magway’s region’s Pauk Township, killing at least 17 police/soldiers and capturing 53 trainee prisoners.

Arakan Army (AA) attacked military as tensions surfaced with Rohingya community. In Rakhine State, AA 10 Oct seized Border Guard Police post in Maungdaw township, killing some 30 soldiers/police. AA 15 Oct ambushed military vehicles in Maungdaw’s Kodan Kauk village, killing four soldiers. Meanwhile, gunmen 6 Oct killed Rohingya community leader from Buthidaung township; local regime administrator blamed Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA), which in turn blamed military and indirectly AA. Gunmen, likely AA fighters, 8 Oct killed another prominent Rohingya community leader in Buthidaung; his relative, activist Wai Wai Nu, accused AA.

Regime and Karen ethnic armed groups clashed in south east. In Karen state from 18 Oct, Karen National Liberation Army (KNLA) and aligned PDFs launched attack on Kawkareik town on main trade route with Thailand. In Mon State, regime blamed both for 12 Oct attack on bus terminal in Kyaikto township that killed three. In Kayin State, KNLA and allied resistance group 13-16 Oct launched attacks in Kyainseikgyi township, killing six regime soldiers and capturing 16. State media 4 Oct accused Karenni Nationalities Progressive Party for shooting commercial plane 30 Sept.

In north, regime forces struck Kachin Independence Organisation (KIO) celebration. Regime forces 23 Oct conducted deadly airstrikes on crowded anniversary event in Kachin state’s Hpakant Township, killing at least 60 people – both KIO fighters and civilians – and possibly more than 100.

After two-year pause, fighting resurged in Rakhine State; authorities continued to face violent opposition in other regions and repress peaceful dissent.

Deadly conflict escalated in Rakhine. Informal ceasefire between military and ethnic armed group Arakan Army (AA) in place since Nov 2020 collapsed: after AA 31 Aug carried out raid on Border Guard Police outpost on Myanmar-Bangladesh border in Maungdaw township, killing at least 19 officers, military 2 Sept launched attacks on AA positions with two helicopter gunships, with fire landing in Bangladesh (see Bangladesh). AA 1 Sept attacked military convoy with landmines in Ann township, destroying two vehicles. AA 7 Sept attacked govt office in Myebon township, killing and injuring several soldiers. AA forces 9-11 Sept attacked and captured military camp in Maungdaw township, killing 13 soldiers. In southern Chin State, after AA late Aug claimed to have killed ten soldiers, clashes were reported in Paletwa 1 Sept.

Violence in other regions continued, including in Shan State (south) and in Sagaing region (north). In Shan state, Karenni armed groups, including Karenni Army and Karenni Nationalities Defence Force, 8 Sept ambushed regime forces in Pekon township, reportedly killing up to 20 soldiers. Military during month also carried out helicopter gunship attacks on several villages in Tabayin Township in Sagaing, culminating in 19 Sept attack where at least 11 children were killed when two helicopters fired on monastery school for more than hour.

Crackdown on dissent continued, regime strengthened cooperation with Russia. Courts 2 Sept handed Aung San Suu Kyi eighth conviction, sentencing her to further three years’ imprisonment with hard labour for “influencing electoral authorities”, bringing sentence to 22 years with nine further charges outstanding. Insein Prison Court same day sentenced former British Ambassador Vicky Bowman and husband Htein Lin, noted artist and former political prisoner, to one-year imprisonment with hard labour for violating immigration law. Leader Min Aung Hlaing 7 Sept met Russian President Putin during second visit to Russia in two months; Min Aung Hlaing praised Putin for turning Russia into “world powerhouse” as pair discussed potential cooperation on various sectors including banking, energy and aerospace.

Deadly clashes between regime and armed groups persisted amid uptick in assassinations in urban areas, while regional body ASEAN lamented regime’s “limited progress” on plan to resolve crisis. Military and allied militias conducted village raids throughout month in northern Chin State, southern and western Sagaing region, northern Magway region and across Kayin State, Kayah State and Tanintharyi region, with local defence forces putting up resistance. Notably, more than dozen local defence forces in Dry Zone (centre) launched second combined offensive during month, reportedly inflicting significant army casualties. Month saw uptick in assassinations in urban areas: from 1-7 Aug, underground cells assassinated five long-serving pro-military Yangon state ward administrators and military killed three top underground cell leaders in Mandalay city. Local defence forces 21 Aug massacred eight members of family in Magway Region in apparent case of mistaken identity; defence force in Mandalay 23 Aug mistakenly killed married couple when targeting police officer with similar name. Tensions remained high between military and ethnic armed group Arakan Army (AA) with clashes escalating following deadly 13 Aug AA attack on military in Rathedaung township, Rakhine State; parties clashed several times in Maungdaw township, on border with Bangladesh. Kachin Independence Army 8 Aug launched significant attack, seizing regime outpost near Sezin village, Hpakant township, and two nearby outposts reportedly controlled by Shanni Nationalities Army; military next day deployed helicopter gunship and two fighter jets. As of 24 Aug, fighting had killed at least four civilians and displaced some 3,000 residents. On international front, regional body ASEAN 3 Aug held foreign ministers’ meeting without regime representation. Joint communique 5 Aug lamented “limited progress” and “lack of commitment” from regime to implement five-point consensus and recommended ASEAN summit in Nov assess progress to guide next steps; regime same day insisted ASEAN refrain from interference in “internal affairs.” Russian FM Sergey Lavrov 3 Aug visited capital Naypyitaw in first ever bilateral visit to Myanmar, likely intended as signal of support for regime. Regime 24 Aug detained former British Ambassador Vicky Bowman and husband Htein Lin, former political prisoner, for alleged household registration error pending trial in Sept.

Regime conducted first judicial executions in decades, provoking condemnation and jeopardising crisis resolution efforts, while regime and armed groups clashed in Kayin and Shan States. Regime 23 July executed four political prisoners, including two high-profile dissidents, in country’s first judicial executions since 1988; killings outraged public, further damaged any prospect of negotiations to address crisis, and sparked strong international criticism, as regional body ASEAN’s chairman 25 July described acts as “highly reprehensible” and “setback” to bloc’s diplomatic efforts, while UN Security Council 27 July unanimously condemned executions. In Kayin State, intense fighting late June-early July erupted between regime and combined ethnic and resistance forces around military outpost at Ukarithta, southern Myawaddy township, with regime forces launching scores of airstrikes and firing heavy weapons; notably, People’s Defence Force (PDF) Cobra Column 12 July reportedly carried out series of ambushes on Myawaddy-Waw Lay Road, killing several soldiers. In northern Shan State, armed group Shan State Progress Party (SSPP) 1 July clashed with military in Mongmit township in first fighting since SSPP last month rejected regime’s ultimatum to vacate three bases, reportedly killing three soldiers and injuring 15, with one SSPP member also killed. Delegation of armed group Lahu Democratic Union 7 July visited capital Naypyitaw for talks with regime leader Min Aung Hlaing, becoming ninth armed group to accept peace talk invitation. NGO Amnesty International 20 July said military’s use of landmines in Kayah State constituted war crimes. On diplomatic front, Chinese FM Wang Yi 3 July met Cambodian FM Prak Sokhonn and Myanmar FM Wunna Maung Lwin and outlined three “expectations” for how Cambodia should handle Myanmar crisis as ASEAN chair, including need for “political reconciliation”, restarting “democratic transition process” and upholding ASEAN’s “non-interference in internal affairs”. Wunna Maung Lwin next day met Thai deputy PM and FM Dom Pramudwinai, discussing implementation of five-point consensus. U.S. Sec State Antony Blinken 10 July said ASEAN needed to hold regime “accountable” for failure to make progress on five-point consensus, said bloc should push military to cease violence and restore democracy and “all countries to speak clearly” on regime’s “ongoing repression and brutality”.

Regime announced plans for first judicial executions in decades, fighting continued in Sagaing region amid reports of serious abuses at hands of Tatmadaw, and tensions ran high in Chin State.  Tatmadaw 3 June confirmed regime would execute four people, including National League for Democracy legislator Phyo Zeyar Thaw and 88 Generation leader Kyaw Min Yu, for their involvement in armed resistance movement in Yangon city, in what would be first judicial execution since 1988. Decision sparked domestic and international outcry: Cambodia 10 June warned executions would undermine South East Asia regional bloc ASEAN and Cambodian efforts to end crisis; regime 6 June rejected criticism from France, UN and U.S. In Sagaing region (centre), regime forces appeared to carry out serious abuses targeting civilians amid ongoing fighting with local people’s defence forces (PDFs). Notably, PDF in Kani township 4 June found four bodies allegedly killed by military 31 May and next day found two bodies apparently tortured before being shot; charred remains of 78-year-old woman found 4 June in Khin-U township after military torched 70 homes. Soldiers 6 June reportedly massacred civilians in Kanphyar village, Myinmu township, killing at least five. Resistance force in Gangaw township 4 June attacked 100-vehicle military convoy, claiming at least ten military casualties and sparking retributive attacks. In Chin State (west), tensions between military and Arakan Army (AA) remained high following late May clashes, with both sides detaining each other’s personnel. Regime soldiers 1 June allegedly fired mortars at displacement camps near neighbouring Kyauktaw township. AA 11 June detained two soldiers in Kyauktaw township, triggering search by military. In central Shan State (east), Shan State Progress Party 4 June rejected military’s ultimatum to withdraw from three outposts in Mong Hsu township. As part of peace initiative, regime early June met two major ethnic armed groups linked to China, United Wa State Army and National Democratic Alliance Army; regime also met signatories of 2015 ceasefire – Arakan Liberation Party, Pao National Liberation Organisation, Karen Peace Council and Democratic Karen Benevolent Army later in month. Defence Minister Mya Tun Oo 22 June attended ASEAN defence ministers’ meeting despite calls from many civil society groups to exclude regime.

National Unity Govt (NUG) accused pro-military groups of targeted killings against its members, hostilities rose in Kayah State, and U.S. and regional states urged progress on five-point consensus. Working committee of former ruling party, National League for Democracy, 10 May accused pro-military “death squads” of killing seven party members and seven supporters as of 5 May. Revenge attacks by resistance groups killed alleged death squad members during month; notably, resistance groups 10 May reportedly shot dead two death squad leaders in Tanintharyi and Mandalay regions. Fighting escalated in Hpruso Township, Kayah State, following relative lull through March-April. Regime forces 3 May allegedly fired indiscriminately into residential areas of villages along Demoso-Bawlakhe highway. Karenni Nationalities Defence Force next day retaliated with two attacks on military convoys on highway, reportedly killing three soldiers, and 7 May ambushed convoy heading to Bawlakhe town, reportedly killing at least 20 soldiers and destroying four vehicles. In Rakhine State, in sign of rising tensions with military, leader of ethnic armed group Arakan Army 6 May tweeted threat at head of military’s Western Command, said would “crush” forces if aggressive military stance, increased checkpoints and civilian harassment continued. At least nine armed groups by 9 May confirmed participation in peace talks proposed by State Administration Council Chairman Min Aung Hlaing in April; none of them however hold strong anti-military positions or are in active conflict with regime. Boat carrying around 90 ethnic Rohingya refugees from Rakhine State 21 May capsized en route to Malaysia, killing at least 17. Diplomatically, Min Aung Hlaing 2 May met Cambodian PM Hun Sen in first public meeting since late Jan; Cambodia called for “more speedy progress” on implementing five-point consensus agreed by Southeast Asia regional body ASEAN to address situation in Myanmar in April 2021. Myanmar remained key issue during 12-13 May U.S.-ASEAN summit with attendees pushing for five-point consensus implementation. Despite no formal invitation to summit, NUG FM Zin Mar Aung 12 May met with U.S. Assistant Sec of State Wendy Sherman and 14 May with Malaysian FM Abdullah Saifuddin. Myanmar regime 14 May objected to meetings and Myanmar-specific paragraph in U.S.-ASEAN summit communiqué.

Deadly fighting between Tatmadaw and resistance forces continued, while China demonstrated public support for regime. April saw profusion of military raids and clashes between regime and locally-organised people’s defence forces (PDFs). Notably, in Magway region regime forces 2-4 April raided villages in Yesagyo township, destroying at least 120 homes and killing elderly man; resistance groups 2-3 April clashed with military, reportedly killing commanding officer and injuring at least three soldiers in Myaing township. Elsewhere in Myaung township, 22 resistance groups 2-3 April led combined assault against military, reportedly killing 12 soldiers. In Sagaing region, regime forces 3 April raided village in Khin-U township, burning 200 homes; in Pinlebu township, Kachin Independence Army and PDF fighters 30 March-10 April clashed with regime forces, capturing key buildings before withdrawing under aerial bombardment from military; resistance forces reportedly detained at least eight soldiers, while fighting killed at least 13 civilians and resistance fighters and displaced some 1,000 civilians. In Kayin State, Karen National Liberation Army fighters 4 April clashed with regime forces at two locations along Kawkareik-Myawaddy stretch of so-called Asian Highway connecting Myanmar and Thailand. National Unity Govt (NUG), PDFs and ethnic armed groups 10 April congratulated Arakan Army (AA) on anniversary of foundation, underscoring growing power of group; AA leader warned that forces should “be ready to go to war”, raising possibility of renewed fighting between AA and regime forces in Rakhine state. Festivities were subdued at official Thingyan (Myanmar New Year) events 13-17 April, as resistance groups urged boycott; military 17 April announced release of 1,619 prisoners; monitoring group Assistance Association for Political Prisoners-Burma said 10,238 people were in detention for coup-related offences as of 15 April. NUG 7 April claimed responsibility for shooting Central Bank Deputy Governor. Naypyitaw court 27 April sentenced deposed leader Aung San Suu Kyi to five years imprisonment in first of 11 pending corruption cases. Meanwhile, State Administration Council (SAC) FM Wunna Maung 1 April met Chinese FM Wang Yi in Huangshan city, China; in strongest public backing of regime to date, China declared it “will always support Myanmar in safeguarding sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity”.

Clashes escalated between regime and resistance forces as well as ethnic armed groups, while U.S. declared anti-Rohingya violence as genocide. Tatmadaw and aligned paramilitary forces from pro-military Pyusawhti networks stepped up counter-insurgency operations during month in central Dry Zone encompassing townships in Sagaing, Mandalay and Magway regions, burning hundreds of homes and killing dozens of civilians. Notably, military and paramilitary forces 1 March raided three villages in Gangaw township, Magway region, torching 275 homes and killing 11 people, including five People’s Defence Force (PDF) fighters; 8 March raided village in Khin-U township, Sagaing region, reportedly killing 11 PDF fighters and three civilians. Resistance forces responded with attacks on pro-military villages: in Sagaing region, PDF 6 March attacked two villages allegedly harbouring regime forces in Taze township, claiming over 30 military and paramilitary casualties; 9 March attacked military camped in village in Chaung-U township, reportedly killing five soldiers. In northern Shan state, military 1-2 March clashed with ethnic Kokang Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), ending two-week lull in fighting since death of MNDAA founder Peng Jiasheng on 16 Feb. Chinland Defence Force 7 March attacked regime convoy in southern southern Chin state. In far northern parts of Kachin state, regime forces 1 March launched airstrikes on Kachin Independence Army. In Kayah state, regime forces 13 March captured key stronghold of Karenni Nationalities Defence Force in Demoso township, following fighting that reportedly inflicted heavy casualties on junta forces. In Kayin State, Karen National Union and PDF 7 March clashed with junta forces around Lay Kay Kaw village, Myawaddy township. Meanwhile, junta 5, 8 March cancelled citizenship of leading opposition figures and National Unity Govt (NUG) members. Worsening electric power shortages and rising commodity prices due to Russian invasion of Ukraine prompted factories to suspend operations, resulted in reduced bus routes and higher transportation fees for trucking companies. Internationally, NUG-aligned UN representative 2 March voted in favour of General Assembly resolution condemning Russian invasion of Ukraine, in contrast to regime’s late Feb comments in support of Russia. U.S. 21 March announced formal determination of genocide for violence committed by military against Rohingya minority.

Regime forces’ ongoing battles against resistance forces and ethnic armed groups fuelled uptick in fighting, while nationwide strike and sanctions marked coup’s first anniversary. Violence rose in Sagaing region (north west) as regime forces continued counter-insurgency campaign and local resistance groups retaliated. Notably, military 6-7 Feb deployed air support during raid on village in Ye-U township, detaining over 70 people and forcing some 10,000 to flee. In Pale township, regime and paramilitary forces from pro-military Pyusawhti networks 4 Feb allegedly raided two villages, burning some 700 homes in total; combined forces of 14 resistance groups next day reportedly attacked police station and General Administration Department in Pale with “heavy weapons”, claiming to have killed eight, including district administrator. Similarly, at least six resistance groups 9 Feb attacked police station in Taze township. Clashes also persisted with some ethnic armed groups. Notably, Arakan Army (AA) 4-8 Feb clashed with military in Maungdaw township, near Bangladesh border, in heaviest fighting since Nov 2020 informal ceasefire. Both sides, however, appeared keen to de-escalate, with regime releasing several dozen AA-linked detainees and AA 12 Feb sending delegation to regime’s Union Day ceremony. In Chin State, military destroyed over 90 homes in Thantlang town in early Feb in retaliation for clashes with Chinland Defence Force. Kachin Independence Army early month launched several attacks on regime targets, upending relative lull in fighting in northern Myanmar. To mark one-year anniversary of 1 Feb coup, resistance called for “silent strike” that was widely observed across country. In Tachileik township (Shan state) unknown assailants same day threw grenade at pro-military rally, reportedly killing two and injuring 20. U.S., Canada and UK marked 1 Feb anniversary with additional sanctions against regime officials and businesspeople helping to arm military. Cambodia next day confirmed it would not invite junta FM Wunna Maung Lwin to rescheduled regional body ASEAN’s meeting on 16-17 Feb, citing regime’s lack of progress on five-point consensus. EU 21 Feb issued new sanctions, including against state-owned oil and gas company. U.S., Japanese, Indian and Australian FMs 11 Feb called for “an end to violence” and reaffirmed support for ASEAN’s efforts.

Deadly fighting between Tatmadaw and resistance forces escalated sharply in Kayah State in south east, while Cambodian PM became first foreign leader to visit country since Feb 2021 coup. Kayah State saw marked escalation in conflict during Jan following 24 Dec massacre by Tatmadaw of over 30 civilians outside Moso village. Clashes 6 Jan erupted between military and Karenni Nationalities Defence Force (KNDF) fighters in state capital Loikaw, forcing 60,000 residents to flee to neighbouring Shan State and prompting Tatmadaw to deploy helicopter gunships and launch military airstrikes 7-16 Jan; notably, two jets 11 Jan dropped seven bombs in Maing Lone ward. KNDF same day said it had killed 20 soldiers and captured three during fighting. Rising violence in Kayah and Kayin States in past two months have led civilians to flee to Moei River bordering Thailand, with some 2,000 people camped on Myanmar side by mid-Jan. Regime-controlled court 10 Jan sentenced deposed leader Aung San Suu Kyi to four additional years in prison on charges of violating COVID-19 rules, breaching import-export laws and owning signal jammers, increasing her most recent sentence to six years. Cambodian PM and current Chair of South East Asia regional body ASEAN Hun Sen 7-8 Jan visited capital Naypyitaw, becoming first foreign leader to visit Myanmar since coup; visit reportedly sparked protests, notably in Depayin and Mandalay cities. In meeting, State Administration Council Chairman Min Aung Hlaing attempted to reframe ASEAN’s demands for complete cessation of violence and dialogue among “all parties concerned” to cover only clashes with Myanmar’s ethnic armed groups, also proposed to extend unilateral ceasefire with ethnic armed groups that notably excludes People’s Defence Force and other resistance forces. Amid fallout from Hun Sen’s visit, with some ASEAN member states, notably Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore, criticising progress and implications of visit, Cambodia 12 Jan announced indefinite postponement of ASEAN foreign ministers’ retreat scheduled 18-19 Jan. Attorney general of Gambia 14 Feb said International Court of Justice will hold next hearing on Rohingya genocide case on 21 Feb – first hearing since Feb 2021 coup.

Regime violence against civilians continued, triggering protests and international condemnation, while court convicted deposed leaders, including Aung San Suu Kyi. In Yangon city, military vehicle 5 Dec accelerated into demonstrators and bystanders in Kyeemyindaing township, with soldiers firing on fleeing protesters, reportedly killing at least five; residents same day resumed banging pots and pans in protest as soldiers responded by breaking windows, vandalising parked cars and firing slingshots at residents on balconies. In grievous human rights abuse in Sagaing region, security forces 7 Dec implicated in killing and incinerating 11 civilians, including six teenagers, in Done Taw village, Salingyi township; authorities previous day reportedly detained villagers after suspected members of local People’s Defence Force attacked military convoys with IEDs. U.S. described incident as “sickening” while UN human rights office warned of “alarming escalation of grave human rights abuses in Myanmar”. Protesters 10 Dec organised “silent strike” with high participation across country as streets were deserted and businesses shuttered despite regime threats. U.S., U.K. and Canada same day announced further targeted sanctions, including against several chief ministers, directorates of defence industries and procurement, and Myanmar War Veterans’ Organisation. In Kayin State, regime forces 14 Dec raided Karen National Union (KNU)-administered Lay Kay Kaw village, Myawaddy township, arresting some 60 political dissidents, National League for Democracy MP and members of Civil Disobedience Movement. Regime forces next day clashed with KNU, displacing thousands and sparking tensions with neighbouring Thailand after shells landed across border (see Thailand). Military forces 24 Dec killed at least 35 civilians outside Moso village, Kayah State; in response, EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell 30 Dec called for “international preventive action…including an arms embargo”. Naypyitaw court 6 Dec sentenced Aung San Suu Kyi and former President Win Myint to four years imprisonment for incitement and violation of COVID-19 rules; regime same day reduced sentences to two years house arrest. UN General Assembly’s Credentials Committee 1 Dec deferred decision on whether to accredit regime’s nominee, maintaining incumbent permanent representative, National Unity Govt-affiliated Kyaw Moe Tun, likely until Sept 2022 General Assembly session.

Targeted attacks against regime continued, including high-profile killing of military-linked executive, alongside clashes between Tatmadaw and armed resistance groups. In highest-profile killing of military-linked official since Feb coup, unknown attackers 4 Nov shot and killed former Naval Lieutenant Commander Thein Aung in Yangon city and wounded his wife; Thein Aung was chief financial officer of military-linked telecoms company Mytel and general manager of military-owned Myanmar Economic Corporation and subsidiary. National Unity Govt (NUG) Minister for International Cooperation Dr Sasa 8 Nov denied existence of “hit list” of political enemies, amid widespread claims online and in local media that NUG distributed list to resistance forces that included Thein Aung as well as some veteran peace negotiators; Sasa also denied any NUG involvement in extrajudicial killings, attributing rumours to military attempts to discredit NUG. Since attacks on local officials and regime supporters began in April, killings of pro-regime civilians rose to several per day. Meanwhile, resistance attacks on military convoys using IEDs, ambushes and targeted killings continued. In Sagaing province, north west, People’s Defence Force (PDF) claimed IED 1 Nov blew armoured personnel carrier off mountain road in notable attack among many in recent months in Htigyaing township, where PDF forces often cooperate with Kachin Independence Army. In Kalay township, Sagaing, heavy clashes erupted mid-Nov as local PDF forces and Chin National Defence Force reportedly fought together against Tatmadaw; similarly, local PDF fought with Kachin Independence Army against Tatmadaw in Kawlin township. In Shan State, east, Pekon township witnessed rising violence with PDF fighting alongside Karenni armed groups against Tatmadaw. UN Security Council 8 Nov held closed-door meeting to discuss Myanmar’s security situation; 10 Nov called for cessation of violence and dialogue, urged delivery of COVID-19 vaccines and humanitarian aid, expressing support for regional body ASEAN’s efforts to “facilitate a peaceful solution”. Former U.S. Ambassador to UN Bill Richardson 2 Nov met State Administration Council Chairman Min Aung Hlaing and secured release of detained former Burmese employee of Richardson Center for Global Engagement; Richardson 15 Nov returned and secured release of U.S. journalist Danny Fenster, sentenced to 11 years imprisonment on 12 Nov.

Regime forces faced stiffening resistance amid wave of deadly attacks, while regional body ASEAN barred junta leader from its summit. Myanmar military reportedly deployed significant forces to country’s north west (Chin, Magway, Sagaing regions) throughout Oct in apparent preparation for renewed offensive against opposition People’s Defence Forces; unconfirmed reports revealed that over 1,500 soldiers killed throughout Oct, making it potentially bloodiest month since Feb coup. State Administration Council also faced growing economic crisis as dollar shortages and declining kyat currency made critical imports such as food, fuel, fertiliser and other essential goods particularly difficult; kyat stabilised as of 14 Oct but remained far below value before coup. Meanwhile, court hearings against senior National League for Democracy figures resumed. Notably, in corruption case against deposed leader Aung San Suu Kyi, former Yangon Region Chief Minister Phyo Min Thein 1 Oct testified that he had bribed her to secure businesses interests. Aung San Suu Kyi described allegations as “all absurd” and said Phyo Min Thein had given testimony under duress. On international front, member states of South East Asia regional body ASEAN 15 Oct decided to bar junta’s representatives, chiefly Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, from attending 26-28 Oct ASEAN summit and other related summits over lack of progress on five-point consensus, notably Tatmadaw’s refusal to allow ASEAN special envoy Erywan Yusof to meet Aung San Suu Kyi. In address to nation, Min Aung Hlaing 18 Oct pinned blame for snub on opposition violence and announced mass release of over 5,600 political prisoners; NGO Human Rights Watch 22 Oct called release “limited in scope”, while authorities subsequently re-arrested 110 people; junta also arrested prominent activist Ko Jimmy in North Dagon township, Yangon region 24 Oct. U.S. legislators 5 Oct introduced “Burma Unified through Rigorous Military Accountability Act” authorising stronger sanctions, support for civil society and appointment of “special coordinator for Burmese democracy”. French senate same day unanimously approved symbolic proposal to recognise National Unity Govt (NUG) as legitimate government. European Parliament 7 Oct approved resolution that “supports the CRPH [Committee Representing Pyidaungsu Hluttaw] and the NUG as the only legitimate representatives”.

While opposition govt declared “people’s defensive war” to depose military dictatorship, announcement failed to lead to sustained escalation in attacks. National Unity Govt (NUG) 7 Sept declared “people’s defensive war” and state of emergency calling on people to rise up against regime. State Administration Council regime 9 Sept accused NUG, Committee Representing Pyidaungsu Hluttaw (CRPH), People’s Defence Force and some ethnic armed groups of choosing “the terror way” and 12 Sept said NUG declaration aimed “to destabilise the country” to influence 14 Sept UN General Assembly decision on Myanmar’s UN credentials. While declaration did not result in significant escalation, deadly attacks on regime targets have continued. Notably, series of militia ambushes early Sept launched against troops in Magway region’s Gangaw township prompted military to occupy area, which resulted in killing of at least 22 villagers from 9-10 Sept, including teenagers and elderly. Military forces 18-19 Sept clashed with anti-junta militia Chin Defence Force in Thantlang town, Chin State, destroying at least 20 homes and forcing majority of town’s 10,000 residents to flee, including several thousands across border into India; militia reported it had killed 30 govt troops. Throughout Sept, regime also stepped up raids and arrests of people allegedly involved in resistance activity in Yangon and elsewhere. Meanwhile, regime 6 Sept dropped sedition charge against nationalist monk Wirathu, detained for past ten months. SAC 21 Sept tried deposed State Counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi for incitement; Suu Kyi pleaded not guilty, with trial set to continue in Oct. Internationally, Vice Senior General Soe Win 3 Sept held talks with Russian deputy defence minister focused on Russian plans to aid “military technology, education, health and various sectors”. Information Minister Maung Maung Ohn 9 Sept briefed foreign diplomats in Yangon on regime’s narrative of Feb coup, stating Tatmadaw had taken power according to constitution in response to “serious irregularities” in 2020 election. U.S. and China 13 Sept brokered agreement to defer decision on Myanmar’s UN representation until at least Oct-Nov; NUG-affiliated incumbent Ambassador Kyaw Moe Tun retained UN credentials on condition he did not speak at high-level General Assembly debate.

Acts of resistance and deadly clashes between regime and insurgents continued amid deadly COVID-19 wave; regional bloc ASEAN appointed special envoy for Myanmar. Bombings in urban areas increased, notably around anniversary of 8 Aug 1988 (“four eights”) uprising, which activists across country marked with flash demonstrations. Targeted assassinations of military personnel, alleged informants and members of paramilitary Pyusawhti network continued; notably, series of bombs and shootings 7-9 Aug targeted junta officials and military officers chiefly in Yangon city. During raid in Yangon, regime forces 10 Aug arrested three and seized homemade bombs, while five activists jumped from building to avoid arrest, killing two and sparking widespread shock on social media. Security forces next day arrested over 30 youths in Yangon amid parallel administration National Unity Govt’s talk of so-called “D-Day” operation to unseat junta. Series of explosions 26-27 Aug hit several locations in Yangon and Mandalay regions. Elsewhere, civil resistance group Yaw Defense Force 23 Aug ambushed military convoy on Gangaw-Kale highway, Magwe region, reportedly killing some 30 soldiers. COVID-19 crisis worsened, with hundreds dying daily in Yangon. On diplomatic front, South East Asia regional body ASEAN 4 Aug confirmed Brunei’s second FM Erywan Yusof as bloc’s special envoy to Myanmar. During virtual ASEAN-European Union (EU) Ministerial Meeting, EU foreign affairs chief Josep Borell 6 Aug called for “meaningful dialogue” between regime and parliamentary committee in exile, National Unity Govt, ethnic minority groups and pro-democracy forces. In response, State Administration Council FM Wunna Maung Lwin expressed opposition to contact between ASEAN special envoy and aforementioned entities, rejected ASEAN-mediated dialogue with opposition. In first official contact, U.S. Deputy Sec State Wendy Sherman 4 Aug called National Unity Govt FM Zin Mar Aung; U.S. 10 Aug announced provision of $50mn for Myanmar people in humanitarian assistance. Separately, U.S. 6 Aug announced charges against two Myanmar nationals detained on U.S. soil for allegedly organising attack on Myanmar’s Permanent Representative to UN who had aligned with National Unity govt. In sign of gradual recognition of military-backed State Administration Council, China 11 Aug transferred $6mn to junta under regional cooperation fund.

Authorities struggled to bring rising COVID-19 infections under control, while unidentified armed groups staged attacks against state electricity corporation in response to power cuts. Ruling State Administration Council throughout month faced rapidly worsening COVID-19 crisis across country, as number of confirmed cases more than doubled each week, with unofficial tallies expected to be far higher; authorities initially blamed victims for hoarding oxygen, before belatedly moving to secure consignments from China and Thailand. In response to large outbreaks of virus in northern Shan State, China continued to shutter trade crossings and 8 July closed last two crossing points near border town of Muse – cutting off around half of Myanmar’s overland trade. Meanwhile, officials in several townships began cutting power to households that have refused to pay bills either to avoid giving funds to regime or due to financial difficulties. After firing and replacing electricity workers on strike in April, State Administration Council issued outstanding bills, attempting to force residents to pay them; in response, resistance groups launched series of targeted attacks against Yangon and Mandalay electricity offices, including bomb explosions at two Yangon offices 7 July, and Mandalay office 16 July, latter killing two people – staffer and customer. Karenni Nationalities Defence Force 13 July bombed electricity offices in Kayah State capital Loikaw; in Mandalay city, resistance groups 11 July shot two electricity workers, killing one. Anti-military forces also continued to stage assassinations of regime officials and sympathisers at similar levels as June, including members of counter-resistance Pyusawhti network. Notably, resistance group in Sagaing region 14 July shot dead former MP from military-established Union Solidarity and Development Party as well as his assistant; military-appointed village administrator next day killed in Sagaing region. Amid ongoing clashes since June between rival armed groups in Shan state, main Shan political party 26 July released statement blaming both groups for violence, calling for end to hostilities and warning that behaviour of groups was undermining “Shan political struggle”. Internationally, U.S. 2 July announced additional sanctions against State Administration Council members and their immediate families, as well as military-linked companies.

Tatmadaw continued to struggle to contain acts of resistance amid intense fighting with civil defence groups and ethnic armed groups across country. Targeted assassinations of alleged supporters of junta increased in June, with several dozen people killed, including local administrators appointed by regime and alleged state informants; with security forces unable to stop killings, armed defence groups mobilised in support of military. Soldiers 22 June attacked resistance forces in downtown Mandalay, leaving several killed on both sides; regime next day intercepted large weapons shipment allegedly destined for Mandalay resistance. Meanwhile, People’s Defence Forces and other civilian militias continued to battle Tatmadaw nationwide. Chinland Defence Force (CDF) 6 June staged several deadly ambushes, claiming killing of up to 50 soldiers in Mindat township and 17 soldiers in Thantlang township. Clashes between junta and civilian militias continued in Sagaing Region; heaviest fighting took place in Kayah State, which led to looming humanitarian disaster. Local defence force and Tatmadaw 15 June agreed temporary ceasefire; 14-day ceasefire also struck between CDF and military from 20 June. In Kachin State and Sagaing Region, wave of fresh fighting between ethnic armed groups and Tatmadaw erupted during month. In far northern Kachin State, Kachin Independence Organisation 1 June fired mortars on Putao Airport. In Kayin State, ethnic armed groups and local defence force 1-2 June clashed together with Tatmadaw troops and members of Karen Border Guard Force near border town of Myawaddy; about 600 civilians fled into Thailand; Tatmadaw shell 2 June hit temporary refugee camp in Thailand, injuring two civilians and Thai soldier. During virtual press conference – which junta blocked by shutting down internet – National Unity Government 5 June presented Rohingya policy providing for equal rights for Rohingya and inviting Rohingya to join opposition to dictatorship. Junta 10 June announced corruption charges against deposed leader Aung San Suu Kyi and other senior National League for Democracy figures; Suu Kyi 7 June appeared in court to face raft of charges. For first time since Feb military coup, delegation from regional organisation ASEAN 4-5 June visited country. G7 leaders 11-13 June condemned Feb coup.

Civil disobedience actions continued as Tatmadaw and civil defence groups clashed, opposition govt launched armed wing and fighting persisted between ethnic armed groups and military. Strikes against coup and other civil disobedience activities continued across country; protests launched daily, with most small-scale and brief in order to avoid crackdowns from security forces. Amid ongoing arrests of anti-coup supporters, country witnessed fewer protest-related killings, although at least 68 reported during month. Spate of bombings and unclaimed arson attacks continued in Yangon, Mandalay and other cities, and at least dozen local govt officials reported killed. Armed clashes between military and locally organised civil defence groups persisted throughout May in north west Myanmar, including Chin State and Sagaing, Magway and Mandalay regions, as well as Kayah State in south east, killing dozens of military troops and police and enabling civil defence groups to seize assault weapons. In Mindat town, in southern Chin State, Chin Defence Force 12-14 May ambushed military vehicles; junta 13 May responded by imposing martial law in township and 15 May unleashed artillery barrage and airborne assault, re-taking town and forcing thousands of townspeople to flee. National Unity Government, which was set up in April in opposition to junta, 5 May announced founding of armed wing – People’s Defence Force – in attempt to unify resistance groups, specifically locally organised defence forces and disparate groups of several hundred protesters undergoing military training in areas controlled by ethnic armed groups. In northern Shan State, armed groups Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army and Ta-ang National Liberation Army 4-5 May staged joint attacks on military base in Kutkai township, seizing large cache of weapons. In Kachin State, military 8 May retook key communications base in Momauk township from Kachin Independence Army (KIO) armed group; KIO 4 May attacked police station in Mansi township, killing head of police force and injuring station chief. In Kayin State, Karen National Union (KNU) armed group continued attacks on military outposts, while junta continued artillery barrages and airstrikes on KNU targets – including civilian areas. G7 foreign ministers 5 May issued communiqué condemning military coup in “strongest terms”, committing to tightening sanctions on regime and preventing sale of weapons to junta.

Security forces continued brutal crackdown on anti-coup protesters and civilians, escalating their counter-insurgency practices, as resistance groups launched sporadic deadly attacks on military. Pro-democracy protesters demanding end to military rule continued rallies nationwide, notably in Yangon, Mandalay and many other towns and cities; police and military responded with deadly force, including by opening fire on protesters; death toll of security crackdown since 1 Feb surpassed 750 people. In major attack, military 9 April assaulted multiple protest camps in Bago town, using for first time mortars and rifle grenades, killing at least 80 civilians. Resistance groups in several parts of country targeted military convoys, as well as ward and village-tractgeneral administration offices. Notably, resistance forces 9 April ambushed military convoy in Tamu, Sagaing region, killing three soldiers; in Chin State, resistance fighters 27 April killed at least 16 soldiers in fighting in Mindat town. State media 9 April announced that military tribunal in North Okkalapa had sentenced to death 19 protesters who allegedly attacked military in March. Opponents of junta 16 April announced creation of National Unity Government. In northern Shan State, military 7-8 April met with leaders of armed groups United Wa State Army and Shan State Progress Party in effort to bolster ceasefires. In Kachin State, Kachin Independence Army (KIA) 8 April ambushed military convoy in rural part of Mogaung township; military same day fired artillery at Laiza town, headquarters of KIA and its civilian wing. Militants associated with Three Brotherhood Alliance (consisting of Arakan Army, Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army and Ta’ang National Liberation Army) 10 April attacked police station outside of Lashio, killing at least 14 policemen, making it first attack since late March decision to re-evaluate unilateral ceasefire. Unidentified attackers 27 April fired rockets at military bases in country’s centre. International pressure continued. UK 1 April imposed sanctions on conglomerate Myanmar Economic Corporation; EU 19 April imposed sanctions on junta; U.S. 21 April added two state-owned enterprises to sanctions list. Junta chief Min Aung Hlaing 25 April attended summit of regional bloc ASEAN, agreeing five-point statement calling for cessation of violence and dialogue. 

Mass protests continued against military’s Feb coup as security forces ramped up deadly crackdown on demonstrators, prompting international outcry. Amid tightened restrictions on internet services, hundreds of thousands of pro-democracy protesters demanding end to military rule continued street action nationwide, including in capital Naypyitaw, Yangon, Mandalay and many other towns and cities; in response, police and soldiers increasingly used deadly force against demonstrators, firing tear gas shells, stun grenades and live ammunition, and burning at least one person alive. Security forces throughout March also conducted intimidating terror campaign at night in residential neighbourhoods, which involved summary executions, indiscriminately firing rubber bullets, arbitrary house searches, beatings and other abuses. Rights group Assistance Association for Political Prisoners stated over 500 people killed during security crackdown between 1 Feb coup and late March, with over 2,258 – including 37 journalists – arrested. Armed Forces Day 27 March marked deadliest so far with security forces killing some 158 protesters and bystanders, including 14 children. Despite crackdown, civil disobedience movement persisted among govt employees and during month expanded into general strike; hundreds of police officers have also resigned, joined disobedience movement or fled country. Military 11 March confirmed new bribery charges against Aung San Suu Kyi, and said ruling military council will only control country for certain period of time before holding election. Acting VP of civilian parallel govt 13 March vowed to pursue “revolution” to overturn coup. Military 23 March expressed regret for deaths of demonstrators and security forces; next day freed hundreds of arrested protesters. FMs from South East Asia regional group ASEAN 2 March stated they were “appalled” by violence while EU 4 March suspended financial support for development projects and 22 March sanctioned military leaders. After freezing around $1bn in Myanmar’s central bank reserves held at U.S. Federal Reserve in Feb, U.S. 4, 10 and 22 March announced new sanctions against junta. UN Security Council 10 March strongly condemned violence against protesters. Junta 11 March confirmed it had removed Arakan Army (AA) insurgents from list of terrorist groups; AA 23 March condemned military coup and “cruel and unacceptable” crackdown.

Military coup sparked biggest political crisis in generation as police killed dozens in violent crackdowns on mass protests. Military 1 Feb staged coup after alleging fraud in Nov elections, declaring state of emergency for one year and handing power to Senior General Min Aung Hlaing after detaining State Counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi, President Win Myint and other senior figures of National League for Democracy party. Police 3 Feb filed charges against Myint for alleged violation of COVID-19 protocols, and against Suu Kyi for alleged import infringements after finding six unauthorised walkie-talkies in her residence. Min Aung Hlaing 1 Feb pledged to hold new election and hand power to winner, without specifying date; medical staff, teachers, govt and private sector workers same day started civil disobedience campaign against military rule, and stopped working. Despite intermittent internet cuts, hundreds of thousands of pro-democracy demonstrators took to streets nationwide throughout Feb, demanding release of Suu Kyi and end to military rule, including in capital Naypyitaw, Yangon, Mandalay and other cities and towns; police cracked down violently on protesters, killing dozens – including at least 18 on 28 Feb alone – while arresting over 1,000 people. Coup prompted stern international response: UN Security Council 4 Feb called for release of members of govt while UK and U.S. same day urged military to relinquish power. Numerous states imposed sanctions on military leaders, including New Zealand 9 Feb, U.S. 11 Feb, as well as UK and Canada 18 Feb. Ethnic armed groups differed in responses to coup. In Rakhine State, Arakan Army continued informal talks with military to solidify informal ceasefire, while some Arakan National Party members accepted positions in new local and national administrations. In northern Shan State, armed groups Restoration Council of Shan State and Ta-ang National Liberation Army 15-21 Feb clashed in sign of more assertive military posture. In Kokang region, military 2 Feb removed local leadership; as they left, rival Myanmar National Democratic Alliance attacked them, reportedly killing dozen, mostly civilians. Ten ethnic armed groups signatory to Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement 20 Feb announced they would suspend political talks with junta.

Military staged coup d’état following escalating tensions with civilian govt over Nov election. Following Nov polls which saw landslide election victory for ruling National League for Democracy (NLD), military late month demanded postponement of new parliament due to convene in capital Naypyitaw on 1 Feb; asked for delay while allegations of electoral malpractice investigated; govt refused after Union Election Commission rejected fraud allegations and international observers called poll a success. Military 31 Jan said “Tatmadaw categorically denies it is impeding Myanmar’s democratic transition”; early morning 1 Feb seized power as it declared one-year state of emergency, imposed communications blackout and detained State Counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi, President U Win Myint and other senior NLD figures, as well as cabinet ministers and civil society representatives; office of Commander-in-Chief Min Aung Hlain same day announced that military would name new election commission and hold fresh elections. Previously, tensions mounted as Tatmadaw and military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) throughout month made unsubstantiated claims that there were over ten million errors in electoral lists and equating them with fraud. Group of 203 opposition and military MPs 11 Jan signed request for Speaker of Union parliament to convene special session to discuss electoral disputes; speaker next day refused request, said parliament had no authority over elections; military statement 14 Jan suggested that speaker’s decision was unconstitutional. USDP 14 Jan convened more than 1,000 demonstrators against election commission’s conduct of polls in Mandalay Region’s Pyawbwe township. Meanwhile, Commander-in-Chief’s office 7 Jan called for elections to be held in remaining townships of Rakhine and Shan State where Nov poll was cancelled on security grounds; Zaw Htay next day stated delayed vote could not be held since military had not provided security guarantees. Informal ceasefire in Rakhine State continued to hold. Following meetings between Arakan Army (AA) and military, AA 1 Jan released three NLD election candidates previously held hostage since Oct. Speaking as chairperson of National Reconciliation and Peace Centre, Aung San Suu Kyi 1 Jan said constitutional amendment to establish democratic federal union was “absolutely necessary”.

Hostilities between Arakan Army (AA) and Tatmadaw paused in Rakhine State as parties initiated direct ceasefire talks. After two years of escalating hostilities in Rakhine State, AA and military informally halted fighting; move follows support by both sides last month to hold polls in all cancelled Rakhine State constituencies and pledge to cooperate to create conducive security environment. Direct talks between AA and Tatmadaw on formal ceasefire commenced late Nov with online meeting and 9 Dec continued with in-person talks hosted by China-backed armed group United Wa State Army in their headquarters in Pangsang city, Shan State; neither set of talks involved civilian govt. Court martial in Rakhine’s regional capital Sittwe 11 Dec sentenced three Tatmadaw soldiers to 20-year prison terms for rape of Rakhine woman in July.

Ruling party won landslide election victory while fighting eased in Rakhine State. General elections 8 Nov resulted in landslide victory for ruling National League for Democracy (NLD) party, gaining 99% of elected seats in seven Burman-majority regions and 58% of elected seats in ethnic-majority states, securing 83% of elected seats in Union Parliament overall; Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) won three seats in Burman-majority regions and 16% of seats in ethnic-majority states; ethnic parties for their part won 25% of seats in ethnic-majority states, only giving them 10% of elected seats overall; military gets automatic 25% bloc. USDP 10 Nov alleged in Facebook video “many contentious events during the whole voting process”, urging voters to send evidence of illegal acts, and 11 Nov called on govt to hold another “free, fair, [and] unbiased” vote rerun as soon as possible. Amid govt’s cancellation of vote in most of Arakan National Party (ANP)’s strongholds in Oct, ANP won largest bloc of seats in Rakhine State Parliament; Rakhine parties however remained short of majority. Arakan Army (AA) 12 Nov released statement for first time in support of holding elections, calling on govt and military to ensure that elections could be held by 31 Dec in all cancelled Rakhine State constituencies; within hours of release, military welcomed statement and committed to support holding elections in cancelled areas; election commission had yet to respond on possible polls by end of month. Meanwhile, violence eased in Rakhine State throughout month. In Shan State in north, unidentified assassins 22 Nov shot and killed Htike Zaw, MP-elect for ruling NLD party.

Fighting continued between Arakan Army (AA) and security forces, while election commission cancelled forthcoming polls in numerous locations. In central and northern Rakhine State and Paletwa town in Chin State, armed conflict escalated in first half of October, with major clashes between Arakan Army (AA) and Tatmadaw in Rathedaung and other townships; govt 5 Oct deployed air power and both sides reportedly suffered dozens of casualties. AA fighters 14 Oct abducted three ruling National League for Democracy (NLD) candidates in Toungup township, 19 Oct called them “traitors”, offered to free them in return for release of all innocent Rakhine civilians. Dire human rights situation continued in AA conflict: patrolling Tatmadaw soldiers 5 Oct used two Rohingya children working as cowherds in Buthidaung township as human shields, forcing them to walk ahead of troops; both killed after patrol walked into AA ambush. NGO Human Rights Watch 8 Oct released report on conditions of 600,000 Rohingya in Rakhine State, concluding that situation met legal definition of apartheid and calling for officials to be prosecuted; NGO Amnesty International 12 Oct issued report on recent “indiscriminate attacks” by Tatmadaw in Kyauktaw township that showed “disregard for human suffering” constituting crimes against humanity. Ahead of 8 Nov elections, Union Election Commission (UEC) 16 Oct announced locations where polls would not be held for security reasons, covering Kachin, Kayin, Mon, Rakhine and Shan States, as well as Bago Region; cancellations included six whole townships in Shan State, nine whole townships in Rakhine State, and partial cancellations in 582 wards and village tracts across the six regions; subsequent 27 Oct announcement revoked a small number of these partial cancellations, and added most of rural Paletwa township to cancelled areas. Cancellations will leave 22 seats vacant in national parliament, likely benefiting ruling NLD. UEC 2 Oct disqualified three Rohingya Muslim candidates and an ethnic Chinese candidate, stating that candidates’ parents were found not to have been citizens at time of birth.

Clashes between Arakan Army (AA) and security forces continued to inflict heavy toll on civilians. In Rakhine state, military 1 Sept allegedly shot and killed villager in Kyauktaw township; 3 Sept reportedly burned down nearly 200 homes in Kyauktaw and killed two villagers it claimed were AA insurgents. Two police officers went missing 5 Sept in Maungdaw township, mutilated body of one found two days later. Artillery shelling 8 Sept reportedly killed five villagers in Myebon township. Unidentified gunmen 10 Sept shot and injured police officer in Minbya township. Artillery shelling 11-17 Sept killed one villager and injured seven more in Rathedaung and Kyauktaw townships. Military 29 Sept announced extension of its nationwide COVID-19 ceasefire until end-Oct, but continued to exclude Rakhine state and Paletwa township. UN human rights chief Michelle Bachelet 14 Sept said military’s alleged targeting of civilians in Rakhine and Chin states may constitute “war crimes or even crimes against humanity”. Canada and Netherlands 2 Sept issued joint statement indicating they would support Rohingya genocide case filed by Gambia against Myanmar at International Court of Justice. International news outlet The New York Times and NGO Fortify Rights 8 Sept reported on video testimony of two Tatmadaw deserters confessing to army-directed atrocities against Rohingya, both fled Myanmar in Aug and are believed to be in The Hague in the Netherlands and to have been interviewed by International Criminal Court; military questioned credibility of confessions and called for soldiers to be returned to Myanmar to face justice. Ahead of Nov general election and amid rise in COVID-19 cases, campaign period kicked off 8 Sept; several opposition parties called for postponement of polls in light of deteriorating COVID-19 situation but Union Election Commission (UEC) 14 Sept rejected calls; unknown individual threw two grenades at residence of UEC official in capital Naypyitaw 19 Sept; neither exploded.

Amid ongoing fighting between Arakan Army (AA) and security forces, fourth “Panglong-21” Union Peace Conference took place in capital Naypyitaw. Violence continued across Rakhine state where unexploded ordnance and landmine 1-3 Aug killed three youths in Rathedaung and Ann townships. AA attacks against security forces 2-3 Aug caused several casualties in Rathedaung and Buthidaung townships; AA claimed killing “more than 20” and capturing six. Military shelling in first half of Aug reportedly injured ten villagers in Kyauktaw, Minbya and Rathedaung townships. Military 7 Aug arrested alleged AA fighter who later died in custody, body showed signs of torture. Unidentified gunmen 12 Aug killed head of Kyauktaw township police. AA 18 Aug reportedly abducted two Buddhist monks and two novice monks in Mrauk-U township. Military 24 Aug announced extension of its nationwide COVID-19 ceasefire until end-September, but continued to exclude Rakhine State. Fighting appeared to have eased in Rakhine after 16 Aug, when first local transmission of COVID-19 for many weeks detected in regional state; some 250 cases recorded by end of month, and night-time curfew and stay-at-home orders imposed across Rakhine 26 Aug. In Naypyitaw, representatives of govt and ten signatory armed groups of Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement 19-21 Aug took part in fourth “Panglong-21” Union Peace Conference, first session in over two years; conference agreed on 20 “principles” with regard to ceasefire agreement, including some vague language on a future federal arrangement; govt’s exclusion of AA from conference due to its designation as terrorist organisation prompted six allied armed groups to boycott talks. Ahead of Nov general elections, electoral authorities began vetting candidate applications; between 11 and 16 Aug district-level election commissions rejected applications of six Rohingya due to alleged failure to prove citizenship status of their parents.

Amid clashes between Arakan Army (AA) and military in Rakhine state, govt and armed groups agreed to hold fifth Union Peace Conference in Aug while election commission scheduled general elections for Nov. In Rakhine state, two police officers 8 July went missing in state capital Sittwe. Army 11 July arrested six men suspected of links to AA in Ramree township, army claimed one committed suicide in custody, but body showed signs of torture. Clashes between military and AA 11-14 July killed at least four civilians and displaced more than 3,000 in Ponnagyun, Rathedaung and Maungdaw townships.  NGO Amnesty International 8 July said military’s killing of civilians in indiscriminate airstrikes on villages in Rakhine and Chin states “amount to war crimes” and urged UN Security Council to refer situation to International Criminal Court. In Shan state, after military late June allegedly shot and killed civilian and injured two others in Kyaukme township amid clashes with armed group Restoration Council of Shan State, more than 10,000 10 July protested in Kyaukme demanding justice for victims; military indicated same day that it would seek charges against organisers for illegal protest. In Kayin state, army 16 July killed civilian; in response, over 1,500 22 July and around 5,000 28 July demonstrated in Papun district calling for military’s withdrawal. Negotiators of govt and other signatories of Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement 7 July agreed to hold fourth “Panglong-21” Union Peace Conference 12-14 August; Brotherhood Alliance – coalition of non-signatory armed groups AA, Ta’ang National Liberation Army and Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army – 21 July said it was “fully willing” to attend conference if invited and that it wanted to resume “stalled negotiations” with govt. Election Commission 1 July announced general elections scheduled for 8 Nov. UK 6 July imposed sanctions on military chief and his deputy for their involvement in “systematic and brutal violence against the Rohingya people and other ethnic minorities.”

Deadly fighting between military and Arakan Army (AA) persisted in Rakhine State. Govt negotiators 9 June proposed to Brotherhood Alliance – coalition of armed groups AA, Kachin Independence Organisation, Ta’ang National Liberation Army and Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army – to resume peace talks via videoconference but coalition rejected offer. Violence between AA and military continued across Rakhine State. AA 10 June reportedly launched rocket-propelled grenades at two navy vessels, which returned fire killing civilian in nearby village in Sittwe township; AA ambush on military column same day prompted several thousands to flee in Minbya township; suspected AA fighters 11 June stabbed soldier and abducted another in Sittwe, military reportedly killed civilian in retaliation. AA 22 June reportedly launched attack on police convoy killing three officers and one civilian in Rathedaung township; landmines targeting military column 2 June killed civilian and unknown number of soldiers in Ponnagyun township. Govt issued order 23 June to villagers in part of Rathedaung township to leave their villages due to imminent military “clearance operation”; thousands fled and intense fighting ongoing since 24 June, prompting UN and Western embassies to raise alarm and call for urgent civilian protection measures. Clash between military and Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA) 4 June left two ARSA fighters dead in Maungdaw township, Rakhine State; ARSA claimed “sizable” number of military casualties. Govt 12 June said internet blackout in Rakhine and Chin states would remain in place until at least August; on 21 June, one-year anniversary of internet ban, international community and more than 100 civil society organisations called on govt to lift ban. Rise in detected COVID-19 cases in Rakhine State due to informal returns from Rohingya refugee camp in Cox’s Bazar in Bangladesh, prompted govt to announce criminal penalties for illegal cross-border travel and fuelled anti-Rohingya hate speech.

Military announced unilateral ceasefire across country but excluded areas where clashes between security forces and Arakan Army (AA) continued to exact heavy civilian toll. In response to COVID-19 threat, Tatmadaw 9 May announced unilateral ceasefire from 10 May to 31 Aug, while excluding Rakhine State and areas of southern Chin State where heavy fighting with AA is ongoing; Brotherhood Alliance – coalition of armed groups AA, Ta’ang National Liberation Army and Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army – called ceasefire “a sham”, urged govt and army to include all parts of country. Clashes between AA and military continued throughout month. In two ethnic Rakhine villages, 325 houses destroyed by fire 16 and 26 May, in manner reminiscent of destruction of Rohingya villages in 2016-17; AA blamed military for recent incidents, who in turn accused AA, saying they did so to discredit military. In south Rakhine, official of ruling party National League for Democracy (NLD) 6 May claimed that AA had intimidated and attempted to kidnap NLD officials in Toungup township, AA said accusations were fabrications to damage its reputation; bomb 8 May exploded in Kyaukpyu township, govt blamed AA. After video of soldiers violently questioning detainees suspected of links with AA emerged, military 12 May said that soldiers had acted inappropriately and would be under military investigation; NGO Human Rights Watch expressed concerns about due accountability under military-led process. Mine explosion 13 May killed two children in Buthidaung township (northern Rakhine), govt and AA blamed each other. About 100 AA fighters 29 May launched attack on police outpost in Rathedaung township, killing four police officers. Radio Free Asia mid-May reported fighting between govt forces and AA had killed 47 civilians since April. Myanmar’s Union Election Commission 18 May stripped Aye Maung, former chairman of Arakan National Party, who was sentenced to 20 years imprisonment for high treason in 2019, of his MP status and barred him from running in future elections. Pursuant to Jan request by International Court of Justice, Myanmar 23 May submitted to court first six-monthly report detailing measures it has taken to prevent and punish acts of genocide against Rohingya.

Fighting between Arakan Army (AA) and military continued at high tempo, leaving dozens dead, while authorities allowed mass release of prisoners, and issued orders to prevent and punish acts of genocide. In Chin State, military 7 April clashed with AA near Nanchaungwa village, Paletwa township, launching airstrikes which left seven civilians dead. UN 17 April said near-daily military air strikes and shelling had killed at least 32 civilians in Rakhine and Chin States since 23 March; Malaysia-based organisation, Arakan Information Center, said total of 45 civilians killed in first half of April in Rakhine and Chin. Amid efforts to expand territorial reach, AA 3 April launched attack on military base in Gwa township, in far south of Rakhine State. Brotherhood Alliance – coalition of armed groups AA, Ta’ang National Liberation Army and Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army – 1 April extended unilateral ceasefire (which never applied in Rakhine State) until 30 April, referencing COVID-19 concerns; military same day said ceasefire “unrealistic”, questioned good faith of armed groups. World Health Organization vehicle transporting COVID-19 test samples 20 April was struck with small-arms fire in Minbya township, Rakhine State; UN driver next day died of injuries; military and AA blamed each other. Outgoing UN Special Rapporteur on human rights in Myanmar Yanghee Lee 29 April said military’s conduct in Rakhine and Chin “may amount to war crimes and crimes against humanity”. Amid fears of COVID-19 in overcrowded prisons, President Win Myint 17 April announced country’s largest ever prisoner amnesty, releasing some 25.000, more than a quarter of total prison population; very few political prisoners included. Ahead of 23 May deadline to submit report to International Court of Justice, Myint 8 April ordered officials to abide by Genocide Convention and to preserve any evidence of genocide. From 8 April, hundreds of detained Rohingya who faced court cases for travelling within country without permission released from prison and returned to displacement camps in Rakhine. Meanwhile, Bangladesh Coast Guard 15 April rescued 400 Rohingya refugees after their boat blocked from landing in Malaysia due to COVID-19 restrictions. Incident raised fears of a repeat of 2015 Rohingya maritime migration crisis (see also Bangladesh).

Major fighting between Arakan Army (AA) and military continued in Rakhine State as authorities 23 March designated group as “terrorist organisation”, further diminishing prospects of any negotiated settlement; meanwhile, security forces launched series of raids on illicit drugs trade in Northern Shan state. As military attempted to break AA blockade of Paletwa township, southern Chin State, and take control of strategic Kaladan river route linking Paletwa town with Kyauktaw town, AA from 10-11 March attacked major govt military base that overlooks the river in Rakhine state, killing dozens and capturing 36 troops from elite unit of 77th Light Infantry Division, including the battalion commander; civilians fleeing area left at least 20 villages deserted following air attacks. In first part of March, military launched series of raids on illicit narcotics production and storage facilities in Kaungkha area, Northern Shan state, dismantling three laboratories and seizing large quantity of precursor chemicals and manufactured drugs, worth a total of over US$200 million on local market; military 24 March raided Kaungkha Militia which controls the area (previously known as Kachin Defence Army and nominally under military command), seizing over 1000 weapons and detaining leaders.

Clashes between Arakan Army (AA) and military continued, further rendering unlikely Rohingya refugee repatriation. In Rakhine State, AA and military confrontation resulted in several incidents; in most serious clash, village school 13 Feb hit by mortar fire, reportedly injuring twenty children in Buthidaung township, in Maungdaw district; military spokesman next day denied responsibility and blamed AA, who in turn blamed military; in early Feb, some 1,100 villagers also fled from twenty villages in same area due to shelling. Govt 3 Feb re-imposed ban lifted on 31 Aug 2019 on mobile internet services for three months in five townships in Rakhine and southern Chin States – Maungdaw, Buthidaung, Rathedaung, Myebon and Paletwa – due to “security requirements and public interest”; four other townships in Rakhine State have been under internet shutdown since June 2019.

Clashes between Arakan Army (AA) and military continued and conflict seems to have expanded to new parts of southern Rakhine State, while Ethnic Armed Organization (EAO) leaders renewed peace process dialog ahead of Nov 2020 general election. AA and military continued to clash across central and northern Rakhine State; several improvised explosive devices 7 and 8 Jan detonated in Rakhine State’s Toungup and Kyaukpyu townships. AA 4 Jan claimed that in 2019, they have engaged in 681 clashes with Tatmadaw, killing or injuring 3,562 soldiers, though figures cannot be corroborated by other sources. EAO leaders 7-8 Jan convened in capital Naypyitaw for meeting of their Peace Process Steering Team; followed by meeting with govt under auspices of Joint Implementation Coordination Meeting (JICM), apex body through which signatories can raise issues with implementation of Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement; concerns from EAO leaders that govt attention to peace process will wane in lead-up to general election prompted Karen National Union and Restoration Council of Shan State (RCSS) to shift their positions and allow JICM to take place for first time since March 2018. In first visit to Myanmar by Chinese head of state since 2001, President Xi Jinping 17-18 Jan met with President, State Counsellor and Commander-in-Chief, focusing discussions on planned China-Myanmar Economic Corridor, also discussed support to peace process. International Court of Justice 23 Jan, in unanimous decision, imposed provisional measures on Myanmar pending final decision on case brought by Gambia under Genocide Convention; Court ordered Myanmar to abide by its obligations to prevent and punish acts of genocide against Rohingya, to preserve relevant evidence, and to submit six-monthly reports on all measures taken, with first report due by 23 May.

Moves toward international accountability for crimes against Rohingya ramped up with State Counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi personally leading the country’s defence at Hague-based International Court of Justice in genocide convention case brought by Gambia in Nov; meanwhile clashes continued between Arakan Army (AA) and military. Speaking before court 11 Dec, Suu Kyi denied genocide but acknowledged for first time possible war crimes and crimes against humanity committed by military, and stated that govt and military were investigating crimes and convening courts martial, also claimed govt was taking steps to improve lives of over 600,000 Muslims remaining in Rakhine State. Suu Kyi’s appearance attracted international criticism, amid increased pressure for further sanctions from West; U.S. 10 Dec added Commander-in-Chief Min Aung Hlaing, Deputy Commander-in-Chief Soe Win and commanders of two Light Infantry Divisions to its sanctions list. Suu Kyi’s leading defence role received positively within Myanmar, helping consolidate domestic political support ahead of Nov 2020 elections. UN General Assembly 27 Dec approved resolution strongly condemning human rights abuses by govt against Rohingya and other minorities, Myanmar UN ambassador called resolution “another classic example of double-standards (and) selective and discriminatory application of human rights norms”. AA and military continued to clash across central and northern Rakhine State, Chin State’s Paletwa township, and northern Shan State, with risks of further escalation. AA leader’s wife and two children 4 Dec detained in Chiang Mai (northern Thailand), after Myanmar revoked their passports and requested extradition; AA leader early Dec said AA would not be deterred by family members’ arrest. AA continued apparent tactic of kidnappings striking political targets; 11 Dec abducted National League for Democracy chairman in northern Rakhine State’s Buthidaung Township “for questioning”; he was later reported killed in army shelling. Ongoing clashes between govt and AA 2-6 Dec left over six dead, including children, notably in Mrauk-U and Kyauktaw townships; UNICEF 12 Dec called on all conflict parties to respect civilian nature of schools and for commitment from govt.

Amid ongoing clashes between Arakan Army (AA) and military in Rakhine State, AA continued apparent asymmetric tactic of mass kidnappings, with 3 Nov abduction of ten people from speed boat on Kaladan River from southern Chin State to Rakhine State, including five Indian engineers and ruling party MP for Paletwa; AA released hostages after one engineer died, but continues to hold MP, U Hwai Tin. Bilateral ceasefire talks continued between army and four members of Northern Alliance - Kachin Independence Organisation (KIO), AA, Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA), and Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA, Kokang); military and KIO appeared to be inching toward new agreement, however possible accord between military and AA and TNLA remained elusive. State Counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi and UN Secretary-General António Guterres clashed at ASEAN-UN Summit in Bangkok 3 Nov, after Guterres expressed concern over situation of Rohingyas in Rakhine State and Cox’s Bazar refugee camps in Bangladesh, and stressed Myanmar’s responsibility for creating conditions conducive to voluntary return. Moves toward international accountability ramped up, with Gambia 11 Nov filing case under Genocide Convention against Myanmar at International Court of Justice (ICJ), which will hold public hearings 10-12 Dec to consider Gambia’s request for provisional measures; Myanmar 19 Nov announced Suu Kyi would personally lead delegation to “defend the national interest of Myanmar at the ICJ”, and has retained prominent international lawyers. Case launched in Argentina 13 Nov under country’s universal jurisdiction provisions that names Suu Kyi, Commander-in-Chief Min Aung Hlaing and two former presidents in crimes against Rohingya. International Criminal Court 14 Nov announced decision granting authorisation for formal investigation which could lead to indictments of individuals in Myanmar deemed responsible for international crimes.

Insecurity continued in northern Shan state and Rakhine state in west, while govt held talks with ethnic armed groups based along Thai border. In Shan state, following end of military’s unilateral ceasefire in Sept, clashes continued between Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) and military including TNLA 9 Oct ambush of convoy army trucks passing through Hseni town, killing three soldiers, injuring three others and seven civilians. In Rakhine State military and Arakan Army (AA) clashed regularly, with military deploying air and naval assets. Navy 1 Oct shelled village on Kaladan River in Kyauktaw township claiming AA fighters were taking refuge there; hit monastic school, injuring five. AA 26 Oct attacked ferry in northern Rakhine, abducting some 50 police, military and govt officials; several reported killed in military operation to release them; military 28 Oct reported fourteen rescued. Mandalay court 8 Oct charged six alleged AA members and supporters with terrorism offences following Sept police raid that uncovered explosives, detonators and communications equipment. Govt continued informal talks with Restoration Council of Shan State and Karen National Union, two largest ethnic armed groups along Thai border, with hopes it could lead to them resuming full participation in formal negotiations. Govt also held separate discussions with Kachin Independence Organisation, AA, TNLA and Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, aiming to establish bilateral ceasefires. Court in Ngapudaw township, Ayeyarwady Region (south of Rakhine state), 4 Oct sentenced 21 Rohingya to two years imprisonment for attempting to travel from Rakhine to Yangon without permission, following single hearing and without legal representation for defendants; rights groups condemned trial as evidence of continued discrimination faced by Rohingya and lack of conditions for safe repatriation of refugees from Bangladesh. UN Special Rapporteur on situation of human rights in Myanmar Yanghee Lee 22 Oct reported it remains “unsafe for [Rohingya refugees] to return to Myanmar”, and called on UN Security Council to refer Myanmar to International Criminal Court. Bangladeshi govt maintained hardline stance against Rohingya refugees (see Bangladesh).

Insecurity continued in Rakhine state with ongoing clashes between military and ethnic Rakhine insurgents, while alliance of ethnic armed groups in north east announced pause in fighting. Violence continued across several townships in Rakhine State as Arakan Army and security forces clashed; unidentified assailants 1 Sept stabbed off-duty police officer to death in Ponnagyun township; decapitated and mutilated bodies of two villagers found in Myebon township 10 Sept, prompting military to declare situation in area “resembles anarchy”. Govt 1 Sept restored internet to five townships in Rakhine and Chin states cut off since June; internet shutdown however continues in four townships. Same day, military announced it would form court martial to try soldiers for “possible weakness in following military instructions” amid ongoing inquiry by Judge Advocate General’s Office into alleged massacre of Rohingya in Gudarpyin village in 2017. In northern Shan State, Brotherhood Alliance – joint force of Arakan Army, Ta’ang National Liberation Army and Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army – announced one-month cessation of hostilities against military 9 Sept, and 20 Sept extended ceasefire until end of year, although reserving right to act in defence. Military’s unilateral ceasefire with ethnic armed groups in Kachin and Shan states ended 21 Sept, with reports of subsequent clashes between army and militants in Mongko and Kutkai townships in Shan State. UN Fact-Finding Mission 17 Sept presented final report on alleged human rights violations by Myanmar military and security forces to Human Rights Council, identifying pattern of ongoing attacks “aimed at erasing the identity and removing” Rohingya from Myanmar, as well as military persecution during operations in Rakhine, Shan and Kachin states; said govt-established Independent Commission of Enquiry not credible. Bangladeshi govt took more hardline approach vis-à-vis Rohingya refugees, including reportedly returning or refusing entry to new Rohingya arrivals caught crossing border (see Bangladesh).

Fighting significantly escalated in northern Shan State as militant groups combined to attack strategic targets. Joint force of Arakan Army (AA), Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) and Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) 15 Aug launched raids on several targets in Shan State and fired rockets at Myanmar’s elite defence academy in Mandalay region, killing nine soldiers, three police and three civilians, and destroying bridge on main route from Mandalay to Chinese border at Muse; groups 17 Aug launched series of coordinated attacks around northern Shan State capital Lashio, including firing on vehicle of local philanthropic association travelling to help civilians trapped by fighting, killing one member of group; clashes also around the strategic town of Kutkai. Military 31 Aug extended unilateral ceasefire in Kachin and Shan, originally announced in Dec 2018, until 21 Sept. AA attacks on security forces in Rakhine state continued, including early Aug ambush on military at Bangladesh border, killing deputy battalion commander; AA 20 Aug attack on convoy killed police captain and wounded four officers. Tensions continued over issue of repatriation of Rohingya refugees in Bangladesh; though Bangladesh 15 Aug said it was ready to return some 3,450 refugees from 22 Aug – approved by Myanmar from list of over 22,000 sent by Bangladeshi govt late-July – no Rohingya refugees willing to repatriate, amid concerns over security, rights and access to services if they return to Myanmar. UN Fact-Finding Mission 5 Aug released report detailing Myanmar military’s business interests and calling for targeted sanctions and arms embargoes, concluding that revenue earned from domestic and foreign business deals substantially enhances military’s ability to carry out “gross violations of human rights with impunity”; Mission also condemned military’s use of “sexual and gender-based violence to terrorise and punish ethnic minorities” in report released 22 Aug.

Clashes between Arakan Army (AA) and Myanmar military in Rakhine state continued amid protests over deaths of AA suspects in military custody. AA used new tactic of attacking navy vessels in Rakhine state three times since late-June, including 19 July rocket attack on two ships on river in Myebon Township which killed army captain and two navy personnel. Local media 5 July reported govt had charged in absentia four AA leaders under Counter Terrorism Law for organising and participating in militant group, alongside charging numerous villagers for harbouring AA members. At govt’s request, Singapore police 10 July arrested and deported seven politically-prominent Rakhine individuals, including brother of AA leader, on charges of using country as platform to organise support for anti-govt violence by raising funds and seeking diaspora support for AA; Myanmar police arrested all seven on arrival in Myanmar or shortly after. Amid demonstrations in Rakhine over deaths of AA suspects in military custody, military 12 July announced formation of investigative team to probe incidents; since early 2019 some fifteen civilians held on suspicion of AA ties reportedly died in military custody or shortly after release. Lull in fighting in Kachin and Shan states continued following military’s late-June extension of unilateral ceasefire until 31 Aug. Amid monsoons causing heavy flooding since early July in Rohingya camps in Bangladesh and leading to at least five deaths and deterioration of living conditions, Rohingya Muslims continued attempts to cross Bay of Bengal to Malaysia; over 60 people from Bangladesh camps and displacement camps around Sittwe in Rakhine state found on coast of southern Maungdaw township 7 July after boat difficulties. Prosecutor of International Criminal Court Fatou Bensouda 4 July requested court’s judges authorise an investigation into alleged crimes against humanity, namely deportation, other inhumane acts and persecution committed against Rohingya Muslims (in which at least one element occurred in Bangladesh – a State Party to the Rome Statute) during the period since 9 October 2016.

Fighting between Arakan Army (AA) and Myanmar military continued in Rakhine and southern Chin states. Clashes in Minbya township, Rakhine, 2-3 June caused civilian casualties including seven killed and seven injured when mortars struck monastery sheltering civilians. UN 10 June reported some 1,000 villagers displaced to Minbya town; further 1,000 reportedly fled villages in southern Chin state due to clashes. Military early June confirmed at least five officers, including two battalion commanders, killed during fighting between late May and early June, but rejected AA claims that over 1,100 soldiers had been killed in 2019. Govt 2o June ordered telecommunication providers to shut down internet services in nine townships in Rakhine and Chin states the following day, claiming internet was used to “coordinate illegal activities”. Lull in fighting in Kachin and Shan states continued amid military’s unilateral ceasefire, and May-agreed fragile ceasefire between two competing Shan armed groups – Restoration Council of Shan State (RCSS) and Shan State Progress Party (SSPP) – continued to hold. Nationwide ethnic peace process remained moribund; Karen National Union, one of largest armed groups, continued to suspend participation in formal process. Despite arrival of monsoon and dangerous sea conditions, Rohingya Muslims increased attempts to cross Bay of Bengal from Bangladesh to Malaysia, including more than 60 Rohingya found in boat beached on island in southern Thailand 11 June due to engine issues; Bangladesh govt said hundreds found trying to leave were returned to camps. Govt tensions with Bangladesh increased over issue of repatriation of Rohingya refugees: after Myanmar Minister for State Counsellor’s Office 31 May said Bangladesh “not cooperating” with bilateral processes, Bangladesh PM Hasina 9 June said Myanmar “in no way” wants repatriation; Bangladeshi FM Momen 12 June criticised Naypyitaw for spreading “blatant lies”, failing “to keep its promises” and urged international community to increase pressure on Myanmar for repatriation. Court 18 June began trial in absentia of hardline monk U Wirathu on charges of sedition relating to disparaging comments he made about State Counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi.

Significant clashes between Arakan Army (AA) and Myanmar military in Rakhine state continued and spread further south. AA claimed to have clashed 33 times with military 1-12 May, including 12 May ambush of military convoy near Western Command headquarters in Ann township. Tensions in Rakhine increased following deaths of civilians in military custody, after army rounded up some 275 Rakhine men and boys aged 15-50 in Buthidaung township (north) 30 April, and 2 May shot dead six and wounded eight. Local villagers disputed military’s claim that men were attempting to riot; military announced internal investigation into incident and released some of those detained, but 83 still under interrogation or facing prosecution for links to AA; UN Office of High Commissioner for Human Rights expressed concern for their safety. NGO Amnesty International 29 May released report detailing Myanmar military “war crimes” in Rakhine since Jan, also finding evidence of AA abuses against civilians.  Malaysian police 13 May said they had disrupted Islamic State (ISIS) cell plotting attacks in Malaysia and other countries, with two Rohingya among those arrested, one reportedly a supporter of militant group Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA) intending to target Myanmar embassy and targets in Rakhine state. Following talks between govt’s peace team and Northern Alliance of ethnic armed groups, military 30 April declared two-month extension to unilateral ceasefire in Kachin and Shan States originally announced in Dec 2018. UN Fact-Finding Mission 14 May urged international community to cut off all financial and other support to military in effort to hold army accountable for “atrocities against many of the ethnic groups living within borders of Myanmar”. Govt 7 May released on humanitarian grounds two Reuters journalists, Wa Lone and Kyaw Soe Oo, jailed in 2017 for breaking Official Secrets Act in their reporting on massacre of Rohingya men, as part of presidential amnesty; civil society groups welcomed decision but warned of ongoing media restrictions. EU late April announced extension of sanctions until 30 April 2020, including arms embargo as well as visa bans and asset freezes for fourteen members of police and military associated with human rights violations.

Regular, serious clashes between Arakan Army (AA) and Myanmar military continued, particularly in Mrauk-U, Buthidaung and Kyauktaw townships, Rakhine state. AA ambush in Buthidaung 5 April reportedly resulted in deaths of Myanmar army captain and some 20 soldiers he was leading; AA 9 April overran police compound and nearby artillery base in Mrauk-U, reportedly killing at least a dozen police and abducting family members. Military reportedly suffered heavy losses while retaking bases and called in airstrikes by fighter jets; civilian casualties reported. Rohingya villagers also caught in crossfire; at least seven and possibly many more killed when they came under helicopter fire in southern Buthidaung 3 April, believed to be case of mistaken identity. Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army militant group also ambushed police vehicle 22 April; no deaths reported. Rakhine State govt 1 April imposed overnight curfew in urban and rural areas across five townships (Ponnagyun, Rathedaung, Kyauktaw, Mrauk-U, and Minbya). Ahead of anticipated arrival of monsoon, small number of Rohingya continued efforts to cross Bay of Bengal to Malaysia before sea conditions deteriorate. UN Sec-Gen António Guterres 2 April appointed U.S. citizen Nicholas Koumjian to head UN-established Independent Investigative Mechanism for Myanmar (IIMM), which is expected to start work by end of 2019 to collect evidence and prepare prosecutorial files “on the most serious international crimes committed in Myanmar since 2011”. President Win Myint issued amnesties for more than 17,000 prisoners to mark Myanmar new year; only four of estimated 364 political prisoners included. Supreme Court 23 April upheld sentence of two Reuters journalists, Wa Lone and Kyaw Soe Oo, jailed for breaking Official Secrets Act in case that has attracted widespread international condemnation and concern over free speech.

Arakan Army (AA) ramped up attacks across broad area of Rakhine State and southern Chin State, despite troop surge and vows by military and govt to crush insurgency. Over a dozen soldiers reportedly killed in clashes with AA in Paletwa township, southern Chin State 7 March; AA 9 March attacked police station in Ponnagyun, western Rakhine State, killing nine officers; same day reportedly occupied military tactical operations base in southern Chin State, capturing eleven prisoners and significant equipment; clashed on streets of Mrauk U town in west of Rakhine State 18 March. Six people killed in Buthidaung as army and AA clashed 21 March, shortly after peace talks in capital Naypyitaw with eight northern armed groups including AA. Court in Sittwe 19 March sentenced prominent Rakhine political leader and a co-accused to 20 years prison for high treason, in move seen as likely to fuel tensions. UN and local aid groups report nearly 20,000 civilians temporarily displaced in Rakhine State due to fighting in recent weeks; also reported that 95,000 people affected by govt restrictions on humanitarian aid to area. Govt 14 March announced new fourteen-member committee led by deputy upper house speaker (an ethnic Rakhine) tasked with bringing stability to Rakhine State and facilitating dialogue between govt, lawmakers and local people. Myanmar military 18 March announced appointment of three-member military “investigation court” to look into Aug 2017 ARSA attacks and security response. Bangladesh continued to move ahead with preparations to relocate some Rohingya refugees to camp on Bhasan Char, silt island 30km offshore. International Criminal Court prosecutor’s office visited Bangladesh 6-11 March as part of its preliminary examination of situation to determine whether to move ahead with formal investigation into alleged crimes against Rohingya.

Deadly clashes between military and Rakhine and Rohingya armed groups continued in overlapping areas of northern Rakhine State, with both communities caught in crossfire, with fears conflict will escalate ahead of monsoon season in April/May. Rakhine State govt late-Jan granted permission to police and military to carry out household search operations in seven townships to search for members of Arakan Army; authorities have charged dozens of young men with unlawful association for having contacts with group. Intense fighting between military and Arakan Army in southern Chin State’s remote Paletwa township early Feb caused several hundred Rakhine and Chin villagers to flee across border to Bangladesh’s Chittagong Hill Tracts, prompting Dhaka to send letter to Myanmar 5 Feb expressing concern over security situation and possible new exodus. Bangladesh FM told UN Security Council 28 Feb that it cannot accommodate any more refugees from Myanmar. Attempted IED attack on military convoy in Ann township 4 Feb, some distance from Arakan Army’s normal area of operations, prompted concerns over possible expansion of attacks to other parts of Rakhine State. Govt statements on destroying Arakan Army, and reports and photos of Rakhine civilian casualties, seen as likely to further alienate many Rakhine and harden their support for group. Indications continued that Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army militant group also becoming more active, with several small attacks in Maungdaw area in Jan and Feb bearing hallmarks of group. With ethnic peace process moribund, four Ethnic Armed Organisations constituting Northern Alliance – Arakan Army, Kachin Independence Organisation, Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, and Ta’ang National Liberation Army – said they offered military a ceasefire during meeting with govt’s National Reconciliation and Peace Centre in China 25 Feb. Parliament 19 Feb formed joint committee to amend 2008 military-drafted constitution ahead of 2020 elections, despite opposition from military MPs; committee began work 25 Feb; military has veto on any amendments.

Deadly attacks by ethnic Rakhine insurgent group Arakan Army (AA) prompted fears of escalating violence in Rakhine State, further complicating prospects for improved security and making Rohingya refugee repatriation even more unlikely. AA 4 Jan launched series of coordinated attacks on four Border Guard Police posts in Buthidaung township in northern Rakhine State on Myanmar’s Independence Day, killing thirteen police and injuring nine. Military regained control of posts later same day and launched major clearance operations to dislodge AA, including using large number of infantry troops; over 5,000 people displaced. AA, which operates both in north (Kachin and Shan states) and along western border (northern Rakhine and southern Chin states), also blamed for 1 Jan roadside bomb attack on Rakhine Chief Minister’s convoy near Mrauk-U, no injuries. Previously, deadly clashes between AA and Myanmar military had been intensifying since late Nov across several townships in northern Rakhine State and southern Chin State. Rohingya militant group ARSA believed to be responsible for ambush on Border Guard Police vehicle that injured six officers 16 Jan; also believed to be responsible for 17 Dec attacks in Maungdaw township, northern Rakhine. These would be first attacks by group since Jan 2018. Unilateral four-month ceasefire in Kachin and Shan State announced by military 21 Dec largely held, however some fighting continued in north, including between rival Shan armed groups in northern Shan State, causing several thousand villagers to flee. UN’s budget committee late Dec approved $28mn in funding for independent mechanism to prepare case files to standard required for any future criminal prosecution of individuals responsible for international crimes against Rohingya. Yangon High Court 11 Jan rejected appeal by two imprisoned Reuters journalists. Parliament 29 Jan approved ruling National League for Democracy party proposal to establish committee on constitutional amendment, against wishes of military; however, military has veto on changes to the charter, so none can be forced through.

Tensions rose in northern Rakhine state, while ethnic conflict continued despite military’s unilateral ceasefire in Shan and Kachin states. In Rakhine state, discovery of bullet-ridden body of a policeman missing since being ambushed in Maungdaw township, and killing of two Buddhist men, prompted launch of military “clearance operations”; perpetrators unknown. Fears continued among Rohingya refugees in camps Bangladesh following Dhaka’s abortive attempt to repatriate almost 500 refugee families back to Rakhine state, compounded by fears over possible change in Bangladesh policy following its elections 30 Dec; Rohingya continued attempts to make dangerous boat trip across Bay of Bengal from camps in Bangladesh and from Rakhine state. International pressure on govt continued: U.S. House of Representatives 13 Dec passed resolution declaring military campaign against Rohingya a genocide, adding to growing momentum in EU and U.S. for new round of sanctions. EU 10 Dec decided to move ahead with more targeted sanctions on seven military and border guard officers; bloc scheduled to decide in Jan whether to formally begin process for revoking Myanmar’s trade preferences, amid ongoing concern over impact on hundreds of thousands of workers in garment industry. U.S. decided late-Nov to move ahead with sanctions against Myanmar related to trafficking in persons, requiring U.S. representatives to vote against any new support to govt by international financial institutions and placing significant restrictions on U.S. aid. Conflict between ethnic armed groups in Shan state continued amid fears it will further deteriorate in coming months, including between competing Shan factions. In surprise move, military 21 Dec announced four-month unilateral ceasefire against ethnic armed groups in Shan and Kachin states. Rakhine state not included in ceasefire, and month saw continuation of series of clashes there and in adjacent southern Chin state between Myanmar military and Arakan Army; military 6 Dec acknowledged several officers had been killed.

Concerns continued over possible forced repatriation of Rohingya refugees from Bangladesh, while ethnic peace process appeared to enter fragile stage ahead of dry season with spike in fighting and all sides losing confidence in the current peace process. Fighting among ethnic armed organisations spiked in Shan state, specifically between Restoration Council of Shan State (RCSS) and Shan State Army North (SSA-N), and between RCSS and Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA); two largest armed groups’ suspension of participation in ethnic peace process (Karen National Union late Oct and RCSS 2 Nov) dealt significant blow. Following 30 Oct agreement between Myanmar and Bangladesh to proceed with limited repatriation of Rohingya refugees, planned return of some 2,260 scheduled to begin 15 Nov did not proceed after no one was willing to return; Bangladesh stated it will not proceed with repatriations until after its elections 30 Dec (see Bangladesh). UN and aid organisations had strongly criticised plan. Several reports emerged of refugees, fearful of forced returns, resuming dangerous boat journeys across Bay of Bengal, possibly aided by organised smuggling operations. On sidelines of ASEAN summit 11-15 Nov, Malaysian PM Mahathir Mohamad again criticised State Counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi and govt’s oppression of Rohingya; summit outcome statement 15 Nov stated need for accountability and creation of conditions in Rakhine state conducive for refugee returns. In 14 Nov meeting with Suu Kyi, U.S. VP Mike Pence called for progress on accountability for violence against Rohingya and for pardon of two Reuters journalists jailed in 2017. Govt criticised UN General Assembly’s 16 Nov resolution which endorsed UN Fact-Finding Mission’s report and establishment of Independent Mechanism to prepare prosecutorial files. With possibility of end to EU’s Everything But Arms preferential trade scheme and pursuant uncertainty over future of garment industry reportedly having serious effect on business and investor sentiment, EU delegation visited early Nov to assess human rights environment.

Chair of UN-appointed Fact Finding Mission Marzuki Darusman 24 Oct briefed UN Security Council on Sept final report into rights violations in Rakhine State and other parts of Myanmar, which gave further details to back up its findings of crimes against humanity, war crimes, and possible genocide by Myanmar military, and called for removal of military leadership, restructuring of institution and end to its political role; report also rejected general economic sanctions. Darusman said thousands of Rohingya still fleeing “ongoing genocide”. Myanmar and Bangladesh officials 30 Oct agreed to start repatriation of refugees mid-Nov. EU 5 Oct announced it is considering revoking Myanmar’s access to “Everything But Arms” preferential trade scheme, which can be withdrawn in case of “serious and systematic violation” of human and labour rights; campaign groups criticised move which could seriously affect garment industry employing some 450,000 people, mostly young women from poor rural families, calling instead for expansion of targeted sanctions on individuals including Commander-in-Chief. At UN Human Rights Council late Sept, members approved resolution establishing body to consolidate evidence of crimes against Rohingya into case files linked to specific perpetrators, to pave way for future international prosecutions. Australia 23 Oct imposed sanctions on five senior military officials, aligning with U.S. and EU. Govt and representatives of ten non-State armed groups met in summit in Naypyitaw 15-16 Oct, third anniversary of signing of Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement; no real progress in overcoming main issues deadlocking peace process, including military demands that armed groups accept principle of non-secession before further dialogue on federalism and security sector reform. Conflict in Kachin and Northern Shan states still eased due to monsoon season and summit, although clashes starting to increase in Northern Shan.

International criticism of govt’s response to Rohingya crisis and treatment of jailed journalists continued, as did sporadic clashes between ethnic armed groups and military in north. Yangon court 3 Sept sentenced two local Reuters journalists to seven years’ prison with hard labour for violating Official Secrets Act, despite credible evidence that police had set them up and prosecution failing to make convincing case; journalists had been investigating killings of ten Rohingya by security forces and local villagers at time of their arrest in Dec 2017; case widely seen internationally as miscarriage of justice and bellwether for Myanmar’s declining press freedom. Speaking at World Economic Forum event in Vietnam 13 Sept, State Counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi backed court’s action; also acknowledged that situation in Rakhine state “could have been handled better” and took responsibility for “political aspect” but declined to criticise what she termed “military aspect”. International Criminal Court 6 Sept ruled that it had jurisdiction over alleged forced deportation of Rohingya from Myanmar to Bangladesh, even though Myanmar is not a state party, since part of the alleged crime occurred on territory of a state party (Bangladesh). Myanmar govt “resolutely rejected” ruling, calling it “the result of faulty procedure”, “manifest bad faith”, and “of dubious legal merit”. UN continues to express frustration at its lack of access to northern Rakhine state, despite MoU agreed by govt in May; on 12 Sept began two-week assessment in 23 villages in area selected by govt. In Rakhine State, tensions continued between authorities and Rakhine Buddhist majority; Sittwe court 10 Sept decided to confirm high treason charges, which carry life imprisonment, against Rakhine political leader and former lawmaker Dr. Aye Maung. Armed clashes involving ethnic groups remain relatively limited, in part due to monsoon; sporadic fighting occurred in northern Shan State early Sept between troops of National Ceasefire Agreement (NCA)-signatory Restoration Council of Shan State and non-signatory Ta’ang National Liberation Army, also in northern hills of Kayin State between military and Fifth Brigade of Karen National Union, an NCA signatory.

UN fact-finding mission 27 Aug issued report calling for investigation and prosecution of Myanmar military leaders for genocide against Rohingya and war crimes and crimes against humanity against minorities in Rakhine, Kachin and Shan states; said military were “killing indiscriminately, gang-raping women, assaulting children and burning entire villages”; called for referral of case to International Criminal Court (ICC). Report also criticised State Councillor Aung San Suu Kyi for not acting to stem or prevent events, found civilian govt “contributed to the commission of atrocity crimes”. Govt rejected report and questioned body’s impartiality and sincerity. Facebook, long criticised for providing platform to incite hatred and facilitate violence against Rohingya, immediately removed eighteen accounts and 52 pages associated with Myanmar military and its commander-in-chief, depriving him of his main channel of communications with Myanmar people. UN Security Council held open session on situation in Myanmar 28 Aug, addressed by Secretary-General Guterres; while there were many strong statements, Council remains deadlocked on stronger action due to opposition from China and Russia. Office of the State Counsellor 9 Aug stated it has declined to engage in any way with ICC on question of whether it has jurisdiction over possible crime of deportation of Rohingya from Myanmar (a non-State Party) to Bangladesh. Chair of Commission of Enquiry 16 Aug stated that Commission would not “point fingers” and that seeking accountability was “quarrelling … not looking for peace”, dealing major blow to body’s international credibility. Govt’s Advisory Board on Rakhine crisis prematurely dissolved 16 Aug after submitting hasty final report. U.S. Treasury 17 Aug announced sanctions on four members of Myanmar military and two units, for serious human rights abuses in Rakhine, Kachin and Shan states. Bangladesh FM visited Myanmar for talks with senior officials 10 Aug, during which they reaffirmed commitment to early repatriation of Rohingya refugees and agreed to establish hotline to facilitate cooperation. UNICEF 23 Aug warned of potential “lost generation” of Rohingya children lacking access to education in camps in Bangladesh.

Amid continued occasional clashes between military and ethnic armed groups in Kachin and North Shan states, third “Panglong-21” Union Peace Conference was held in Naypyitaw 11-16 July. For first time, all ethnic armed groups attended, including those without ceasefires. State Counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi and commander in chief both struck slightly more conciliatory tone, but did not offer any major new concessions; conference outcome seen as not particularly substantive, no discussion of security sector and constitutional change. Govt reaffirmed intention to complete peace process by 2020 elections. Outgoing UN High Commissioner Zeid Ra’ad al-Hussein gave strongly worded update on Rohingya human rights situation at UN Human Rights Council in Geneva 4 July, stating that, “people are still fleeing persecution in Rakhine”; member states expressed increased focus on accountability measures. UN Secretary-General António Guterres and World Bank President Jim Kim visited Bangladesh early July, including Rohingya camps; Guterres called for greater funding to support Rohingya and host communities, and for Myanmar to create conditions suitable for return. Bangladesh home minister 11 July said that Bangladesh and UN had completed process of formally registering Rohingya refugees, aimed at facilitating repatriation, registration of children born in camps ongoing. Following fact-finding mission to camps, UN investigators 19 July reported continued refugee influx, with violence and persecution ongoing. Leaked confidential memorandum of understanding between govt and UN on humanitarian and development assistance to northern Rakhine 29 June prompted criticism over lack of consultation with Rohingya refugees; failure to recognise the Rohingya identity; and denial of basic rights for Rohingya residents or returnees, including citizenship. Govt 30 July named two local and two international members of commission of inquiry into allegations of rights abuses in Rakhine state, which was announced in late May. Court 9 July decided to formally charge two Reuters journalists under Official Secrets Act over their reporting on massacre of Rohingya villagers perpetrated by security forces and local people; decision criticised by U.S., EU, and others.

Conflict in Kachin and Shan states eased somewhat due to onset of monsoon. Data compiled by UN humanitarian agency 1 June showed over 60,000 people temporarily displaced by fighting in Kachin and Shan states between Jan 2017 and May 2018, with most subsequently returning to their areas of origin; 103,000 people remaining in camps in Shan and Kachin states as result of conflict that resumed in 2011. Concerns over conditions of Rohingya refugees in camps in Bangladesh grew with beginning of seasonal heavy rains, which caused flooding, landslides and logistical challenges, and several fatalities from mudslides. UN refugee agency said some 200,000 out of 720,000 refugees “at risk” need to be relocated to safer areas. Still no refugee returns through official system, however small number of Rohingya reported to be returning informally to Rakhine state. Govt 6 June signed memorandum of understanding with UN refugee and development agencies on cooperation on repatriation of refugees from Bangladesh. President’s office 31 May announced that govt would establish three-member Independent Commission of Enquiry to investigate alleged human rights violations in northern Rakhine state, commission to include an international personality and assisted by national and international legal and technical experts. International Criminal Court (ICC) began discussions on possible investigation into alleged deportation of Rohingya to Bangladesh, gave Myanmar 27 July deadline to provide observations on the legal and factual aspects of the case for jurisdiction. UN Special Envoy for Myanmar Christine Burgener visited 12-22 June, met with state counsellor and commander-in-chief, visited Rakhine; then travelled to Thailand, China, Bangladesh. European Council 25 June decided to impose sanctions on seven Myanmar military officials over rights violations against Rohingya. Facebook 7 June announced it would ban several “hardline” monks and designated radical race and religion protection group, Ma Ba Tha, as a “hate organization.”

Armed conflict in north continued to escalate, with clashes between military and Kachin Independence Organisation (KIO) in Kachin state displacing over 7,000 civilians since early April. In northern Shan state, nineteen people killed including twelve civilians and 27 injured in clash in key border trading town Muse 12 May; fighting followed attack by Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) on police and allied militia positions. China 14 May demanded end to fighting, noting that clashes had killed two Chinese nationals and prompted 300 people to flee into China. Clashes also escalated between TNLA and Restoration Council of Shan State (RCSS) in state early May, displacing some 600 in Namtu township. Early and late May also saw small-scale deadly clashes between Arakan Army and Tatmadaw troops in southern Chin state. Peace process continued to inch toward next Panglong-21 peace conference, although date yet to be fixed. International scrutiny of Rohingya crisis continued: Organisation of Islamic Cooperation FMs meeting in Bangladesh 5-6 May pushed for accountability and political action; Myanmar govt 9 May criticised meeting’s outcome statement, same day lodged complaint about construction by Bangladesh border police of security posts within agreed no-construction zone near border line. Following late April visit to Bangladesh and Myanmar, UN Security Council 9 May issued press statement noting its members “were struck by the scale of the humanitarian crisis”, remain “gravely concerned”, urging govt to create conditions conducive to safe, voluntary and dignified return of Rohingya, implement Rakhine Advisory Commission recommendations, and called for accountability for perpetrators of violence. State Counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi 1 May said her govt “is pleased to be working in partnership with the UN” including on repatriation, “believes that this is the appropriate time” for UN refugee agency involvement in Rakhine, but no substantive follow-through yet. Amnesty International 22 May reported evidence that Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA) had killed scores of Hindu civilians after launching attacks on security posts in Rakhine state Aug 2017; ARSA denied.

In north east, clashes escalated between military and Kachin Independence Organisation (KIO) across several townships in Kachin State. KIO 6 April attacked Myanmar military base in Hpakant township, reportedly killing several soldiers. Govt forces 11 April attacked KIO’s Laiza HQ and other bases in major new offensive including ground and air strikes. Military reportedly deployed some 2,000 troops as well as aircraft. Some 4,000 civilians reportedly displaced by late April, particularly around Tanai township; UN reported 10,000 displaced since Jan, amid growing concern over humanitarian situation. As repatriation of some 900,000 Rohingya refugees from Myanmar remained stalled, govt delegation made first visit to Rohingya refugee camps in Bangladesh 11 April; refugees presented them with list of conditions for their return including restitution, restoration of citizenship and rights, and international security presence. UN Security Council discussed Rohingya crisis in context of annual debate on conflict-related sexual violence 16 April, with Myanmar military listed as perpetrator for first time. Security Council visited Bangladesh and Myanmar 29 April-1 May to review progress in implementing its Nov 2017 Presidential Statement. Ahead of visit, UN secretary-general appointed Christine Schraner Burgener, current Swiss ambassador to Germany, as special envoy on Myanmar. Two boats carrying Rohingya refugees believed to have departed from Sittwe, Rakhine State headed to Malaysia and Indonesia during month, first known Rohingya smuggling vessels to cross Bay of Bengal in over a year. Military 10 April reported seven soldiers including four officers sentenced to ten years’ prison for killing of Rohingyas in Inn Din village in Sept 2017. Court 11 April rejected motion from defence to dismiss case against two Reuters journalists investigating case. EU late April extended and strengthened arms embargo against Myanmar and started preparing individual sanctions against army officials. International Criminal Court prosecutor 9 April asked court to rule on whether it has jurisdiction over deportations of Rohingya from Myanmar to Bangladesh as possible crime against humanity.

At UN Human Rights Council session in Geneva early March, UN human rights chief Zeid Ra’ad al-Hussein 7 March said he strongly suspected “acts of genocide” may have taken place against Rohingya in northern Rakhine since Aug 2017 and called for body to prepare prosecutorial files to facilitate criminal prosecutions; 9 March called for allegations of atrocities to be referred to International Criminal Court. Report of UN Special Rapporteur Yanghee Lee 9 March called for international efforts to focus on accountability for individuals and govt, said events in Rakhine bore hallmarks of genocide. Fact-finding Mission presented interim report 12 March, noted it had “hundreds” of accounts pointing to “crimes under international law” for which it will “attribute responsibility where it is due”. Amnesty International report 12 March highlighted evolving situation in northern Rakhine, with deserted villages being bulldozed (including some that were not burned), new road, electrical and security infrastructure being rolled out, and beginnings of resettlement of non-Muslims, making return of Rohingya refugees from Bangladesh to villages of origin more unlikely. As repatriation of refugees remained stalled, Bangladesh’s foreign ministry 1 March said it summoned Myanmar ambassador to call for “immediate pullback of Myanmar security forces along with military assets” from border zone where thousands of Rohingya were sheltering; Myanmar removed its heavy weapons and sides agreed to carry out periodic coordinated patrols of border. In Kachin state, govt forces clashed with Kachin Independence Organisation (KIO) troops in Tanai and Putao townships. In northern Shan state, govt forces clashed with Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) in Namtu Township; and TNLA and Restoration Council of Shan State (RCSS) clashed in Namtu, Kyaukme and Namhsan townships, displacing more than 800 villagers; two people killed in bomb blast by unknown group in Lashio 21 Feb. In northern Kayin state, govt forces and Karen National Union (KNU) clashed in Hpapun township. In Tanintharyi region (south), New Mon State Party (NMSP) and KNU clashed early March in dispute over illegal logging. President U Htin Kyaw resigned, replaced by U Win Myint, previously speaker of House of Representatives.

Return of Rohingya refugees from Bangladesh remained stalled despite bilateral agreement on procedures; number of Rohingya refugees who have fled from Rakhine state to Bangladesh now stands at 688,000, with small numbers continuing to cross. UN High Commissioner for Refugees Filippo Grandi 13 Feb told UN Security Council conditions “not yet conducive to voluntary repatriation” with causes of their flight not yet addressed, no substantive progress on addressing deepening exclusion and denial of rights rooted in lack of citizenship. Reuters 8 Feb released report that detained journalists Wa Lone and Kyaw Soe Oo had been working on at time of their Dec arrest: provides detailed reconstruction of extrajudicial execution of ten Rohingya villagers by soldiers, police and ethnic Rakhine villagers, and their burial in mass grave. Report prompted renewed calls from U.S. and UN for independent investigation into events in northern Rakhine. Govt spokesperson 11 Feb stated action would be taken against ten members of security forces, six villagers in connection with killings. Associated Press (AP) 1 Feb reported it had conducted detailed interviews with Rohingya refugees in Bangladesh and identified five previously unreported massacres of Rohingya civilians in days after 25 Aug whose bodies had been buried by Myanmar soldiers in mass graves. Govt 2 Feb rejected claims; Rakhine state govt said it was planning to sue AP. Authorities 9 Feb charged prominent Rakhine figures Aye Maung and Wai Hin Aung, both arrested in Jan on charges of unlawful association and incitement, with high treason; sporadic protests across Rakhine state against their prosecution. Three small bombs exploded near govt buildings in state capital Sittwe 24 Feb; no fatalities. Canada announced sanctions 16 Feb against senior Myanmar officer for role in Rohingya crackdown. U.S. Senate committee unanimously passed sanctions bill on Myanmar 7 Feb. EU Foreign Affairs Council 26 Feb called for targeted restrictive measures against senior military officers and strengthening of existing arms embargo. Clashes continued between govt and Kachin Independence Organisation and Ta’ang National Liberation Army, while peace process remained moribund, despite signing of Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement by two additional groups 13 Feb.

Deadly crackdown on Buddhist Rakhine protesters in Rakhine state further exacerbated tensions and complicated political situation, while attempts to begin repatriation of Rohingya refugees continued to face obstacles. Police 16 Jan fired live rounds on Buddhist Rakhine anti-govt demonstrators outside Mrauk-U town in Rakhine state, leaving at least seven demonstrators dead and several more seriously injured. Arakan Army armed group condemned crackdown and threatened to take action against police who fired on crowd. Observers fear incident creates further obstacles to repatriation of Rohingya refugees from Bangladesh, could hinder govt’s ability to push through unpopular recommendations of Kofi Annan advisory commission that would improve Rohingya rights. Govt 18 Jan arrested prominent Rakhine political leader MP Aye Maung for unlawful association, further inflaming local sentiment. First meeting of Bangladesh-Myanmar Joint Working Committee for repatriation 15 Jan agreed practical arrangements for some 688,000 Rohingya refugees, to commence 23 Jan with up to 1,500 returnees per week, and be completed “preferably within two years”. Rights groups and UN continued to voice concern over conditions for return, lack of guarantees for safety; with no refugees having volunteered to return, Bangladesh 22 Jan announced indefinite delay in repatriation (see also Bangladesh). Humanitarian access to northern Rakhine continues to be heavily restricted. U.S. diplomat Bill Richardson 24 Jan announced resignation from govt’s international advisory panel on Rohingya crisis following trip to country and heated meeting with Aung San Suu Kyi, calling panel “whitewash” of crisis; govt rejected his concerns, claimed he had “personal agenda”. Military 10 Jan released findings of internal investigation into mass grave in Maungdaw township, finding that ten Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA) suspects had been detained by military unit, killed by soldiers and villagers and buried in mass grave 2 Sep 2017; indicated those responsible would be prosecuted. ARSA militants ambushed army vehicle in northern Maungdaw township 5 Jan, followed by reported firefight with soldiers. Clashes between govt forces and ethnic armed groups continued in Kachin state and northern Shan state in north east, particularly involving govt air power and heavy artillery around Kachin Independence Organisation’s Laiza headquarters.

Médecins Sans Frontières survey of Bangladesh camps holding Myanmar Rohingya refugees 14 Dec estimated over 11,000 people died in northern Rakhine in initial month following attacks 25 Aug; 8,170 deaths due to violence, mostly gunshots, including 1,247 children under five. International Organisation for Migration 17 Dec estimated number of Rohingya arrivals in Bangladesh since 25 Aug at 655,000. Human Rights Watch 18 Dec issued analysis of new satellite imagery showing burning of buildings had continued in 40 Rohingya villages from Oct to 2 Dec. President 8 Dec appointed a new advisory board on Rakhine state, comprising five international and five local personalities; said it hopes to convene meeting of group with govt Committee for Implementation of the Recommendations on Rakhine state in Jan. High Commissioner for Human Rights Zeid Ra’ad al-Hussein, addressing special session of UN Human Rights Council 5 Dec, stated he could not rule out presence of “elements of genocide” in govt response to Aug attacks, called for UN General Assembly to establish “new impartial and independent mechanism… to assist individual criminal investigations of those responsible”. In BBC interview Hussein warned situation could get “much worse”. United Nationalities Federal Council (UNFC) armed group umbrella organisation 11 Dec requested meetings with Aung San Suu Kyi and Commander-in-Chief to unblock stalled peace negotiations; next peace conference now planned end-Jan/Feb. Kachin Independence Organisation armed group reported clashes with govt forces in Tanai (Kachin state) throughout Nov and attacks on positions near Laiza HQ in Dec. Yangon police 12 Dec arrested two Reuters journalists reportedly writing story on military abuses in Rakhine state; pair charged under Official Secrets Act for possession of internal military documents, prompting international expressions of concern over press freedom. Free Expression Myanmar NGO released report 11 Dec warning that another law, on criminal defamation, was being increasingly used to stifle dissent.

Govt continued to resist concessions on key issues of international concern over Rohingya crisis, including humanitarian access, despite UN Security Council scrutiny and diplomatic pressure exerted at regional summits and Asia-Europe foreign ministers’ meeting in Naypyitaw 20-21 Nov. UN Security Council 6 Nov agreed Presidential Statement strongly condemning violence and displacement and expressing alarm at humanitarian situation; Myanmar representative rejected statement. UN Special Representative on Sexual Violence in Conflict Pramila Patten 22 Nov said alleged atrocities by military against Rohingya women and girls may constitute war crimes, crimes against humanity and genocide. U.S. Sec State Tillerson 22 Nov called military operation against Rohingya “ethnic cleansing”, said U.S. will pursue possible targeted sanctions against individuals responsible. IOM 25 Nov estimated number of arrivals in Bangladesh since 25 Aug at 624,000. Myanmar and Bangladesh 23 Nov signed repatriation agreement; rights groups criticised deal for lacking clear provisions, and any repatriation is likely a distant prospect. Govt continues to rule out involvement of UN refugee agency in repatriation. Suu Kyi 2 Nov made her first trip to Rakhine state since taking power, meeting Rakhine and Rohingya communities. Military 13 Nov released results of internal investigation into its conduct during “clearance operations” in northern Rakhine since 25 Aug: denied allegations of rape, killing by soldiers, stated “not a single shot was fired” on civilians. Tens of thousands marched through Yangon 29 Oct in support of military. Sermon delivered by prominent monk Sitagu to military officers in Kayin state 30 Oct, in which he appeared to provide religious justification for mass killing of non-Buddhists, prompted considerable alarm internationally and by some in Myanmar in subsequent days. Pope Francis made first-ever papal visit to Myanmar 27-30 Nov meeting govt, military leaders, gave Mass for 150,000 from Catholic community; spoke of need for unity and respect for all, but did not refer directly to Rakhine crisis or use word “Rohingya”. Some 330 people reportedly fled fighting between military, Arakan Army in Paletwa, southern Chin state since 1 Nov.

Rohingya refugee exodus from northern Rakhine state to Bangladesh continued, with some 607,000 estimated to have crossed border between 25 Aug and 28 Oct. Military operations reportedly mostly ended; insecurity and restrictions on movement and humanitarian access, plus lack of means of survival fuelled second wave of refugees, mainly from southern Buthidaung township. Govt took diplomats on tour of northern Rakhine 2 and 10 Oct; first group reported dire humanitarian need, called on authorities to fully investigate allegations of human rights violations (including by granting access to UN Fact Finding Mission) and allow unimpeded humanitarian access; encouraged govt to enable “voluntary, dignified and safe” return of refugees. Myanmar and Bangladesh 24 Oct agreed to set up “working group” by 30 Nov to discuss refugee repatriation; they disagreed during month on UN role and return of longstanding refugees. UN 3 Oct issued revised response plan to assist 1.2 million people in Bangladesh (refugees and host communities); donor countries pledged $344mn at 23 Oct conference. Majority of Myanmar population continue to support govt/military approach to crisis. State Counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi 12 Oct gave speech to nation stating commitment to address concerns of international community and announcing establishment of body to support repatriation, resettlement, rehabilitation and development in Rakhine. EU 16 Oct decided to suspend visits by high-level Myanmar military officers to Europe and review defence cooperation, but no formal sanctions. U.S. 23 Oct announced restriction on military assistance to units/officers involved in violence against Rohingya, considering further measures. Office of UN human rights chief 11 Oct released mission report accusing Myanmar security forces and Rakhine Buddhist militia of brutal, well-organised and systematic attacks against Rohingya, with intent to drive population out of Myanmar and prevent their return. Amnesty International 18 Oct accused Myanmar’s security forces of crimes against humanity in northern Rakhine state. Office of Commander in Chief 13 Oct announced internal military investigation into whether troops followed orders and code of conduct during “clearance operations” following Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army’s 25 Aug attacks.

Following late Aug attacks by Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA, also known as Harakah al-Yaqin), violent and disproportionate military response targeting Rohingya villagers in Muslim-majority northern Rakhine state continued, including systematic burnings of villages by security forces and Rakhine Buddhist vigilantes, abuses and killings. UN reported over 500,000 Rohingya – over two thirds of area’s Rohingya population – had fled to Bangladesh by late Sept, creating one of fastest-growing refugee crises since Second World War; tens of thousands more internally displaced, Rohingya and members of other groups. Govt continued to deny UN and international NGO humanitarian access to northern Rakhine, refused visas to UN Fact Finding Mission. UN human rights chief 11 Sept condemned “textbook example of ethnic cleansing”. Addressing open UN Security Council session 28 Sept, UN Secretary-General Guterres called for end to military operation and warned of impact of crisis on regional stability; Myanmar national security advisor denied accusations of ethnic cleansing and genocide. Govt rejected ARSA’s 10 Sept call for “humanitarian pause” ceasefire; ARSA 14 Sept issued statement denying links with al-Qaeda, Islamic State (ISIS), Lashkar-e-Taiba (Pakistan) “or any transnational terrorist group”, warned against their involvement in Arakan conflict. Aung San Suu Kyi 19 Sept gave speech to foreign diplomats condemning human rights violations and expressing concern for those caught up in conflict; international observers criticised her apparent denial of ethnic cleansing and claims that Muslims in Rakhine state have access to health and education services without discrimination; that 50% of Muslim villages remained untouched; and that military operations had ended 5 Sept. Commander in chief 21 Sept said military had handled situation as best it could, called for displaced “ethnic” (ie non-Muslim) communities to return to villages as soon as possible. Govt found two mass graves in northern Rakhine 24 and 25 Sept containing 45 bodies, said they are Hindu villagers killed by ARSA. Nationalist monk Wirathu gave speech on Rakhine crisis in Kayin state capital 10 Sept attended by nearly 40,000 people, in violation of preaching ban.

Serious escalation in northern Rakhine state as militant group Harakah al-Yaqin/Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA) launched coordinated attacks on 30 police posts and army base 25 Aug; some 80 militants and twelve members of security forces killed; military subsequently conducted “clearance operations”. Govt evacuated some 4,000 non-Muslim civilians from area; some 27,500 Rohingya attempting to flee to Bangladesh, but Bangladesh said it cannot accept them. Indications that ARSA has attacked non-Muslim villages and killed several residents represents serious new development. Tensions had been on rise ahead of attack with several incidents suggesting increased ARSA activity, deployment of additional Myanmar troops and tensions between villagers and security forces. Govt’s Maungdaw Investigation Commission 6 Aug issued final report strongly criticising UN human rights chief’s Feb report that found “very likely commission of crimes against humanity” by military during its late 2016 operations targeting ARSA; said it found no evidence of significant human rights violations by security forces. Aung San Suu Kyi (ASSK) 9 Aug convened special security meeting on Rakhine state, after which Rakhine state govt announced increased security measures, greater restrictions on foreign NGOs in northern Rakhine; military announced deployment of some 500 troops to northern Rakhine; and govt announced extension and expansion of curfew. Large demonstrations against UN and foreign NGOs took place across Rakhine state 13 Aug; ASSK’s office 28 Aug statement that aid workers were helping terrorists prompted UN to evacuate non-essential staff from area for their security; govt claim condemned by rights groups. Kofi Annan’s Advisory Commission on Rakhine state submitted final report 23 Aug with recommendations to address legitimate grievances of Rakhine and prevent violence; govt welcomed report. With ethnic peace process apparently stalled, govt and United Nationalities Federal Council (UNFC) peace negotiators met for sixth time 10 Aug; no clear progress toward agreements that would convince UNFC member armed groups to sign Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement. UNFC leader later reported trust “at zero”. Fresh clashes broke out between govt forces and Kachin Independence Organisation in Mogaung township, Kachin state 10-11 Aug, displacing over 1,000.